Analysis and forecast of current pig production and market in Liaoning Province

Introduction: first, the production and marketing of live pigs in our province at present continue to maintain the momentum of growth driven by the inertia of high efficiency in the early stage According to the statistics at the end of the third quarter, 15.332 million pigs were on hand and 14.449 million were on the market in the whole province, up 10.3% and 8.9% year on year respectively Among them, the number of breedable sows still maintained a rapid growth, with 1.342 million on hand at the end of September, up 11.8% year on year The production of pork increased and the market supply was sufficient By the end of September, the province's pork output was 1238000 tons, an increase of 8.7% over the same period last year Since the beginning of this year, some provinces in China have been affected by the swine epidemic, but the supply and consumption of the market in our province has not been greatly affected, and the sales of pork market is stable Market prices for pigs and pork fell Since this year, the pig and pork market in our province has fallen steadily But in the past month, the price of pigs has declined by an increasing margin At present, the price of pigs in the whole province is 6.4 yuan / kg It was 22% lower than the beginning of the year and 24.7% lower than the same period last year Pig prices have fallen by 20% since August The price of pork is 12.7 yuan / kg 5.5% lower than the beginning of the year Compared with the same period of last year, the price of pork fell by 7.3%, which was much lower than that of pigs The production efficiency decreased In the first half of this year, the production efficiency of pigs in our province remained at a high level, but with the price of pigs falling, especially in the past two months, the price of pigs fell by a large margin In this period, because of the high purchase price and feed price of piglets, the high production cost, the poor production efficiency Most producers can only protect the principal, and some even suffer losses In recent years, the enthusiasm of producers has been obviously frustrated The enthusiasm is not high The price of piglets has dropped to 10 yuan / kg The year-on-year decrease was 47.9% 2 Analysis of the reasons for the decline of pig price the decline of pig and pork price is mainly caused by the imbalance of stage supply and demand and some human factors Our investigation has the following reasons: first, the continuous and high efficiency of pig production promotes the rapid development of production Up to now, the high benefit period of live pigs in our province has been running for 20 months Under this stimulation, the growth of pig production is faster All farms (households) have expanded their scale By the end of last year, the number of fertile sows in our province had reached 1.376 million, an increase of 21.3% over the previous year Breeding sows account for 9.2% of the total stock It has been higher than the normal proportion, forming a larger production capacity Although the reproductive sows are seriously affected by swine disease and the survival rate of piglets is declining, the overall production capacity is still increasing, which is bound to cause the situation of oversupply Second, the producers' wrong expectations lead to the concentration of pigs The profit and loss period of pig breeding in our province is generally 22 months, including 18-19 months profit period and 3-4 months loss period This cycle is different from the past, with a long profit period In addition, some media reports are also optimistic about this year's pig breeding situation, and producers expect the pig prices in the fourth quarter of this year to remain high at the beginning of this year There is a purpose to arrange the period of pig going out of the market in autumn and winter, which results in the concentration of pig going out of the market at present In addition, farmers see the price of pigs fall, in order to reduce losses, eager to sell, but also exacerbated the price of pigs Third, Streptococcosis and other diseases have adverse effects on the export of pigs in our province More efforts have been made to block and quarantine the transportation of pigs and pork in foreign ports, making it difficult for pigs in our province to be transported to southern provinces and reducing the number of pigs going out of our province According to statistics, by the end of September, 2.5 million pigs were sold outside the province, down 10% year on year Increased sales pressure in the province also pushed prices down Fourth, the number of pigs collected by the slaughtering, processing and marketing businesses decreased significantly, which also exacerbated the decline in pig prices Affected by the business philosophy of "buy up, don't buy down", the business owners are worried about "high in and low out", so they generally show low enthusiasm for pig harvest during the period of pig price falling According to the survey, most of the slaughtering and processing enterprises in our province have reduced pig harvest in varying degrees The individual pig peddler also pressed the price, expecting the price of the pig to be low This is also the reason why the price of pigs is relatively large, while the price of pork is not falling much Fifth, consumer psychology is affected to some extent Recently, affected by the epidemic situation of Streptococcus suis in some areas, consumers have certain scruples about pork consumption, and they are more cautious or tend to buy other livestock products According to a survey of some farmers' markets, pork sales fell about 5% year-on-year in August and September III prediction of pig production and market situation According to the analysis of the current structure of the pig population on hand, the number of pigs on hand will keep increasing during the new year and the Spring Festival, and there will be no problem in the market supply However, based on the analysis of the law of the production and marketing of pigs and the market changes in the whole province, as well as the low enthusiasm of the producers in the near future, and the decrease in the number of pigs kept and purchased, the production of pigs in our province in the next year may be stable or slightly decreased, and the production efficiency will be reduced It is estimated that the number of pigs in the province will reach 16.18 million by the end of the year 8% year-on-year growth, 20.65 million units, 9% year-on-year growth With the coming of the "two festivals", the consumption of pork market will increase, and the major slaughtering and processing enterprises will also enter the peak buying season The cool weather is also conducive to the export of live pigs in our province, easing the contradiction of oversupply These factors are conducive to slowing down the downward trend of pig price It is expected that the price of pigs and pork in our province will remain stable or decrease slightly by the Spring Festival.