An unprecedented "obesity crisis"! In 2030, the overweight/obesity rate in China may reach 70%!

Medical Pulse Tong editing and collation, please do not reprint

Introduction: From 2018 to 2019, the prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension and diabetes in adults in China was 51.

Status: One in every two adults is overweight/obese

Since the 1970s, China's overall economic level has grown rapidly, and the living standards of residents have improved rapidly, but various complex factors behind it have jointly promoted the increase

Since the 1990s, the prevalence of obesity in our country has been rising, and obesity has become a major public health problem for both adults and children, with one in two adults currently overweight or obese

Prediction: In 2030, the proportion of adults overweight/obesity in China may reach 70%

Recently, based on linear regression analysis of national data, some scholars have made a latest assessment of the prevalence of overweight/obesity in China, and used data analysis methods to predict

It is predicted that by 2030, the overall prevalence of overweight/obesity among adults in China may reach 70.

Figure 1 Trend chart of overweight/obesity in China (including predictions)

Note: Overweight: BMI 24.

Prediction: In 2030, the number of people with diabetes may exceed 200 million, and the number of people with hypertension may exceed 400 million

If effective interventions are not implemented in the near future, the burden of obesity and its comorbidities will continue to increase
.

Using nationally representative data collected since the 1990s, including the 2015 China National Nutrition and Health Survey, we predicted the prevalence of hypertension and type 2 diabetes by 2030 and the number of people with these diseases (Figure 2
).

Through linear regression analysis, by 2030, the prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in China may reach 35.
4% and 18.
5% respectively, and the number may reach 416 million and 218 million
.

Figure 2 Prevalence trend of hypertension and type 2 diabetes in China (including predictions)

Note: Hypertension is defined as mean SBP≥140mmHg or average DBP≥90mmHg or previously diagnosed by a doctor as hypertension or self-reported use of antihypertensive drugs; T2DM is defined as an empty-stomach blood glucose level of ≥ 7.
0 mmol/L, a 2-hour blood glucose level of ≥ 11.
1 mmol/L (OGTT 2h, after 75 g of glucose), or previously confirmed
.

Curbing the obesity crisis is urgent!

Predictive analysis suggests that the health burden of obesity, including obesity-related hypertension and diabetes, is likely to continue to increase over the next decade and will reach very high levels
by 2030.

In 2018, the prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension, and T2DM among Chinese adults was 51.
2%, 27.
5%, and 12.
4%,
respectively.

By 2030, the prevalence is expected to be 70.
5%, 35.
4% and 18.
5%, respectively, and the number of adults will be 810.
65 million, 416.
47 million and 217.
64 million
, respectively.

At present, the health burden caused by obesity in China is very high, and this form is still likely to deteriorate sharply in the next few years, and there is an urgent need for positive population-based specific interventions to combat the growing obesity epidemic
.

References: Sun X, Yan AF, Shi Z, et al.
Health consequences of obesity and projected future obesity health burden in China.
Obesity（Silver Spring，Md）.
2022 Sep，30（9）: 1724-1751.
DOI: 10.
1002/oby.
23472，PMID:36000246