An increase in grain import quotas does not mean an improvement in exports to China

Introduction: new page 1 - the import volume is not expected to be close to the target of tariff rate quota According to odj10.1, this week China announced the tariff rate quota (TRO) for grain import in 2004, but the industry insiders said on Wednesday that the actual import volume may be lower than the announced tro again As a major grain producer, China has been committed to supply self-sufficiency, which will take time before the domestic grain market is opened to the outside world to allow more imported grains to flow in, according to the MRD industry Mr D, a grain trader at an international firm in Singapore, said he did not think China would be able to exhaust all its import quotas this year (2003) He hinted that tros in 2004 would not be completely exhausted On Wednesday morning, China's national development and Reform Commission announced tros for grain and cotton imports in 2004 The tros of wheat were 9.366 million tons, of which about 90% were allocated to state-owned companies Corn has 7.2 million tons of tros, 60% of which are allocated to state-owned companies The tros of rice is 5.32 million tons, of which about 50% is allocated to state-owned companies In 2004, the tros of cotton were 894000 tons, of which 33% were allocated to state-owned companies As a member of the world trade organization, China has said it will allow more foreign products to enter China under the low tariff import quota system, including agricultural products Imports within the quota range pay lower tariffs, but once the quota is exceeded, the tariffs will increase significantly On the whole, the number of tros in 2004 was higher than that in 2003 In 2003, the tros of wheat, corn and rice were 9.052 million tons, 6.525 million tons and 4.655 million tons respectively MRD, however, based on imports so far this year, it is unlikely that the 2003 tros will be fully used up by the end of the year According to Chinese customs data, in the first eight months of 2003, China imported only 200462 tons of wheat, 190385 tons of rice and 32 tons of corn In the calendar year 2002, China imported 604572 tons of wheat, 236188 tons of rice and 6322 tons of corn According to the second Singapore trader, although the tros will increase next year, the question is whether the actual import volume can reach this level If a Chinese buyer is assigned a quota of 5000 tons, will he be willing to import such a small quantity? And China is a big country Can other buyers import more ships easily? According to Mr D traders, the Chinese government has made it impossible for some buyers to import grain by issuing quotas such as small quantities In some cases, the Chinese government allocates import quotas to buyers in inland areas who do not need to import at all, according to a second trader According to a trader at Mr D, China is likely to increase its grain imports in 2004, as the country faces a reduction in grain production and a decline in grain stocks such as corn and wheat Mr D's increase in the number of tros allocated by the government to private companies in 2004 also bodes well for import prospects, as private companies are more free to trade than state-owned companies According to Mr D traders, increased domestic demand for quality wheat is also expected to boost wheat imports China still can't produce enough quality wheat Nevertheless, grain imports as a whole will not be quite surprising and may not be close to the target of tariff rate quota, at least for next year In addition, China's Ministry of Commerce released tros for 2004 edible oil and sugar on Monday MrD