An analysis of the real reasons for the rise of wheat price

Introduction: before the end of April, the market was still very pessimistic about the price of wheat: at that time, China held a series of grain auctions, intended to reduce the once huge national wheat stocks, leading to a substantial increase in supply in the short term and a fall in the spot price of wheat A survey conducted by the Ministry of agriculture in late March showed that the winter wheat situation was the best in recent years Therefore, the market also made an optimistic estimate of the wheat output in China this year At that time, the Ministry of agriculture estimated that the wheat output in China this year was 93.5 million tons, basically the same as that of last year's 94 million tons However, from the end of April, the rainy weather in the main wheat producing areas quickly broke the optimistic estimate of wheat yield The market expects that this year's wheat production reduction in China has become a foregone conclusion, and the per unit yield and quality are generally lower than last year The State Grain and oil information center also made a new forecast in the middle and late May They believe that the total output of our country will be reduced to 89.3 million tons this year In addition, last year, the main wheat production areas generally reached or close to the second-class quality standard of the national standard, while this year, it is estimated that the third-class wheat is the majority The quality of high-quality wheat is also down from last year In fact, this year's wheat yield reduction caused by rain is only a fuse The underlying reason for the sharp rise of wheat price is the change of the overall supply and demand relationship of wheat Due to the rapid growth of population, the expansion of consumer groups year by year, and the adjustment of people's diet structure, the amount of wheat consumption is increasing by 1% to 2% every year In 2001, China's total wheat consumption reached 118 million tons However, China's wheat production reached a record high of 123 million tons in 1997, and it began to decrease year after year By this year, it has fallen below the threshold of 90 million tons From the perspective of China's wheat import quantity, in 1988, China's Wheat Import reached the maximum value of 14.88 million tons After that, although the import quantity has been repeated, the overall trend is that the import quantity gradually decreases In 1995, China imported 11.59 million tons of wheat, and in 2001, China imported only 690000 tons Because the output of wheat in our country is seriously less than the demand, and the quantity of imported wheat in our country is decreasing every year, there is only one way to meet the huge demand of wheat in our country, which is to continuously consume the huge stock of wheat in our country In 1997, China's wheat inventory reached a record high of 107.41 million tons, but it immediately decreased rapidly Since 2000, the gap between China's wheat supply and demand has become larger and larger, from millions of tons in the past year to 10 million tons and even to 23.86 million tons last year This year, the gap between supply and demand has reached an alarming 28.7 million tons The stock of wheat has also declined year by year By this year, the stock of wheat in China will only be about 30 million tons, which may be the smallest stock record in decades in China At present, the harvesting of Winter Wheat in the main production areas of our country has ended According to the information, the price of wheat purchase and protection introduced in different regions this year is generally lower than that of last year, and the price of the same variety and grade is about 2 yuan lower than that of last year In recent years, the price of the third-class common wheat train board in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market in China is generally 1080 yuan / ton, up 0.47% over the previous period; under the current situation that the price of wheat purchase has declined, it is rare for the domestic wheat price to maintain a steady and rising trend 2002 is the first year of a new round of "El Nino" phenomenon activities The climate is more abnormal, which will reduce the yield and quality of crops According to the information provided by the International Grain Council, the total output and inventory of wheat in the world are also decreasing year by year, and the trend of expanding the gap between production and demand is increasingly obvious, which makes the supply-demand relationship of wheat market quietly changed It is worth noting that the decline in US wheat production prospects boosted market prices in June Considering that most of the major producing countries in the region are listing wheat in succession, the scope and depth of the price interaction is worthy of attention It is expected that the peak of wheat prices in domestic and foreign markets this year may come in advance Therefore, the recent rise of wheat should be reasonable (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: