An analysis of the price trend of China's grain market after entering WTO

Introduction: on December 11, China became the 143rd official member of the WTO, which is a perfect one for the WTO It will make great changes in China's economic strategy and a good opportunity for China's food work At the same time, it is also facing a severe test, which can be said to have advantages and disadvantages, and is a double-edged sword Therefore, this paper makes a brief analysis on the trend of grain market in the next year after China's accession to the WTO: 1 The quota quantity of imported grain and oil, tariff and the quota proportion of state-owned and private enterprises in 2002 (GF2) After China's accession to the WTO, China's import quota of grain and oil was 8.468 billion kg of wheat, 5.85 billion kg of corn, 3.99 billion kg of rice, 2.518 billion kg of soybean oil, 812 million kg of vegetable oil and 2.4 billion kg of palm oil in 2002 In 2004, wheat will increase to 9.36 billion kg, corn 7.2 billion kg and rice 5.32 billion kg The total amount of edible vegetable oil increased to 6.84 billion kg in 2004 and 7.31 billion kg in 2005, including 3.3 billion kg of soybean oil, 1.13 billion kg of rapeseed oil and 2.88 billion kg of palm oil The quota was cancelled in 2006 GF2 tariff: 1% in wheat quota and 65% in 2004 from 71% in 2002 Within the quota of corn, it was 1% and outside the quota decreased from 71% in 2002 to 65% in 2004 Within the rice quota, it was 1%, while outside the quota, from 74% in 2002 to 65% in 2004 The proportion of GF2: the proportion of state-owned trade in wheat was 90% and that of private sector was 10% The proportion of state-owned trade in corn decreased from 75% in 2002 to 65% in 2004, and that of private sector increased from 25% in 2002 to 35% in 2004 The proportion of state trade of soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased from 40% in 2002 to 10% in 2004, and that of private trade increased from 60% to 90% in 2004 GF2 2 2 The price of imported grain oil (within the quota) to the port GF2 Guangdong South Station wheat: 1780 yuan / ton of American soft wheat, 1500 yuan of Australian wheat, 2420 yuan of Jiamai No.1, 2050 yuan of Jiamai No.2 and 1800 yuan of Jiamai No.3 The price of GF2 imported wheat is based on the recent US dollar The FOB and arrival price of GF2 Canadian spring wheat is 134.5 US dollars at its domestic port The freight of 30000 tons of ships is about 24.5 US dollars / ton, so the price after duty paid is calculated as follows: the duty paid price within the quota of GF2 = (134.5 + 24.5) × 1.01 (customs duty) × 1.13 (value added tax) × 1.001003009 (insurance premium) × 8.27 + 70 yuan (unloading fee) = 1572.2 yuan / ton The FOB price of the domestic port of GF2 hard red spring wheat (FOB Gulf of Mexico) is 151 US dollars / ton, and the freight of 50000 tons is about 19 US dollars / ton Based on this, the price of duty paid in China's port is calculated as follows: the duty paid in quota price of GF2 = (151 + 19) × 1.10 (tariff) × 1.13 VAT) × 1.001003009 (insurance) × 8.27 + 70 yuan (unloading fee) 1676.2 yuan / ton Recently, the price of GF2 corn from the United States to South Korea port is 118 US dollars / ton, which is similar to that of China port According to this calculation, after tax, it will be converted into more than 1000 yuan / ton Before China's accession to the WTO, the subsidy of US $40 per ton (about 368-406 yuan in 2000) will be reduced or even cancelled after China's accession to the WTO In January 2002, GF2 imported US 2 soybeans at a price of 194.06 US dollars / ton, which is about 1970 yuan / ton of arrival RMB South American soybeans are 181.16 US dollars, which is about 1840 yuan / ton On December 20, 2001, the port price of soybean imported from Shandong and its surrounding ports was 1880-1920 yuan / ton, while that from Shanghai and its surrounding ports was 1940-1960 yuan GF23 Price trend of main grain and oil varieties in 2002 GF2 wheat: although production has been reduced for two consecutive years, the market is still relatively stable due to a considerable amount of inventory In the first half of 2001, the decline was negative, but in June, due to the better implementation of the protection price, it stopped falling and recovered September is 0.1% higher than the beginning of the year, but October is slightly lower Since late October, there is a plan for new storage and loading of grain, and the wheat price in the main production area has risen to 1120-1140 yuan / ton By December, due to the completion of the new storage plan, although it has entered the peak processing season, and the two festivals are approaching, but due to the grain sector's open purchase and stock pressing promotion, wheat prices have fallen again The purchase market price of Luxi is 0.98 yuan / kg (the same below), 1.02-1.04 yuan in the north of Henan Province, 1.10 yuan in the south of Shanxi Province, and 1.04 yuan in some parts of Anhui Province, which is about 0.02-0.06 yuan lower than that in November Due to the difference of 2.5 billion kg between the new grain storage and new grain storage plan and the number of stored grain converted into commodity grain, the private processing enterprises took the opportunity to reduce the price In addition, there are a large number of aged grain constantly out of the warehouse, which is also a factor affecting the stable price of grain This year's Autumn Sown winter wheat continued to decrease by about 3% over the previous year, to 322 million mu, of which 87 million mu is high-quality wheat, accounting for 27% In recent years, the growth of consumption has slowed down The annual consumption per capita is less than 90 kg, only increasing by about 1% per year But the amount that can enter circulation is only about 45 billion kg At present, China's wheat supply and demand balance is still a little surplus It is expected that the first half of 2002 will also be a stable operation with small fluctuations Before the Spring Festival, there will be a small increase in length However, the delivery price of the train board for the second level hard wheat in the same year will not exceed 1200 yuan / ton It is expected that the price in the third level hard white wheat main production area will still be between 1.06-1.14 yuan The purchase price fluctuates between 0.96-1.04 yuan, so there is no possibility of excessive growth There will be a small slide in some parts, but the inventory will drop more The train freight from the main production area to the coastal sales area is about 0.16 yuan per kilogram, and the coastal sales price is between 1.30-1.4 yuan, about 0.2 yuan lower than the imported wheat In 2002, if the wheat import quota is implemented at 65%, the actual import will be 5.5 billion kg, which may push forward from Shanghai and Guangdong to the mainland, and may change the pattern of wheat supply and demand in China As export subsidies decrease, the region of import may also shift from North America to Australia and Argentina The price of imported wheat will rise due to the reduction of export subsidies Moreover, the great power effect, once China implements the quota at 65% and imports more than 5 billion kg, will lead to the recovery of international food prices, so domestic consumers can hardly bear it In addition, the quota will be redistributed if it is not used up until October, and 10% of the quota is private, which is difficult for the state to control, so the number of imports will increase GF2 rice: this year's total output is 179.5 billion kg, a decrease of 6.408 billion kg compared with 187.908 billion kg last year, a decrease of 3.4% compared with the previous year The consumption of rice is 135 billion kg, the export of rice is about 2 billion kg, and there is a gap of more than 5 billion kg in the plane calculation of that year However, the price of new rice decreased correspondingly after it was put on the market, especially the price of Japonica rice decreased from 1.5 yuan to 1.14-1.2 yuan at present At present, the price of hybrid rice is 0.9-0.98 yuan, both of which are lower than that of the previous year Only early indica rice dropped out of the protected price and the area was greatly reduced The price increased by more than 60% over the previous year, reaching about 0.8 yuan But its decrease is less than that of wheat, and its stock is larger than that of wheat Especially after the opening of the sales area, the selling of grain by farmers will affect the price of grain; the implementation of the new international policy in the main production area will inevitably cause the price of grain to fall accordingly; because the water content of new grain is too high to be kept, the operators will inevitably sell The auction of aged grain also affected the price drop, so the rice (rice) was still stable in 2002 GF2 corn: in 2001, the total output of corn is about 115 billion kg, and the annual demand is 110 billion kg With the export, the demand is balanced This year, there are only five provinces of corn that have not been liberalized, namely Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi The protection price is between 0.88-0.92 yuan, most of which is 0.9 yuan, slightly lower than the level of the previous year Due to the export and the good price (about 1.2 yuan) before September this year, a large number of sales were made, especially in the west of Huanghuai River and the east of Northwest China in Guannei Due to the reduction of area and the impact of drought, it is estimated that the purchase price is less than 0.8 yuan (15% of water is difficult to receive in large quantities, but higher than the protection price by 0.9 yuan, and the actual purchase price is about 0.94 yuan) As China's corn is non genetically modified corn, which is competitive in the international market, there is a pattern of entering the South and leaving the north, so it is expected that the future market will hover around 1.00 yuan GF2 soybean: the total output in 2001 was 15.45 billion kg, slightly higher than that in the previous year It is mainly increased in Heilongjiang and Jilin, and decreased in the rest China's annual consumption is about 26 billion kg, and it is expected to import 14 billion kg As China's soybean is also non genetically modified, the price of soybean is mainly controlled by the international price, so the scope of export will increase GF2 cooking oil: in 2001, the total production of domestic cooking oil was about 10 billion kg, and the demand grew rapidly to 12.4-13 billion kg Due to the reduction of international rapeseed production, domestic rapeseed oil will be strong, the price of imported rapeseed oil will be 4.7-4.9 yuan, and the price of domestic rapeseed oil will be 4.7-4.8 yuan The factory price of soybean oil will be between 4.5-4.6 yuan Due to the large increase in cotton area this year, which is more than 15 million mu more than that of last year, the cotton oil has not only pulled down the oil price Since October, the price in the secondary cotton oil sales area has been above 4 yuan, and that in the main production area is above 3.6 yuan The price of salad oil will increase by 0.4 yuan per kilogram It is expected that the price of edible oil will rise by 0.1-0.2 yuan per kilogram under the current downturn GF24 The problems faced after China's accession to the WTO GF21 Have an immeasurable impact on China's agriculture China's adjustment of agricultural planting structure aims to solve the problems of long-term low prices of agricultural products, slow growth of farmers' income, high grain stocks and too much state subsidies China's food security target is about 150 billion kg per year Planting high-efficiency economic crops in the main sales area makes up the grain space for the main production area, but if the import quota becomes a reality, it will occupy the grain market space of the main production area and directly affect the interests of the farmers in the production area Therefore, the main production areas are also increasing the efforts to open up the grain market, and farmers will face pain in adjusting production State owned grain enterprises are facing challenges On the one hand, the reform of state-owned grain enterprises lags behind, the burden of enterprises is heavy, the cost of operation is high, and it is difficult to adapt to the new situation of market competition after entering WTO On the other hand, national treatment should be implemented for all enterprises, and the main body of the market will become diversified At present, China's grain enterprises are "small sampans", which can not compete with Cargill of the United States, Cairns (15) group company and Louis Dafu of France Although the monopoly system of grain foreign trade implemented for a long time in China protects the economic interests of foreign trade enterprises, it also limits the development of foreign trade enterprises In addition, the domestic grain enterprises are facing the new situation that they have entered WTO and the market has been opened sharply, and there is no opportunity to train Therefore, it is difficult to adapt to the international market competition In conclusion, the adjustment of agricultural structure will continue and the grain area will be reduced Due to the pressure of excessive grain inventory, local governments will still take promotional measures to increase the treatment of aged grain Therefore, the trend of next year's wheat will fluctuate slightly after a period of basically stable operation in the first half of the year, and it is likely to be strong in the third quarter Rice will be stable in the first half of the year, corn will be slightly higher in the current price, oil prices will also slightly pick up Gf2