An analysis of the influencing factors of China's rice price in 2003

Introduction: in 2002 2TM in 2002, China's rice price went out of the market trend that market people would not like to see, and most state-owned grain enterprises were in trouble in rice management In the whole year, the trend of rice price was depressed, and the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent 2TM 1 A brief review of China's rice market in 2002 2TM 2001-2002 purchase and sale of protected rice in Yongji County chart 2TM purchase quantity sales quantity average purchase price average sales price 2TM 2001 109000 tons 139000 tons 1220 yuan / ton 1270 yuan / ton 2TM 2002, 133000 tons, 16000 tons, 1220 yuan / ton, 1220 yuan / ton, 2TM this is the chart of purchase and sale of protected rice in Yongji County, Jilin Province from 2001 to 2002 We can see that the most obvious change here is that the sales volume of rice in Yongji County dropped sharply in 2002 Under the same high-quality rice, the same sales team and the same sales model, the results of 2001 and 2002 are different According to the information provided by the grain wholesale market of Yongji County, it is difficult to sell high-quality rice in 2002 Compared with 2001, the market share of Yongji County decreased by 80% - 90% In 2002, most of the state-owned grain enterprises encountered the same problem in their rice business activities Before, the purchase and sale of rice in China was mainly the purchase and management of state-owned grain enterprises at the protective price, which resulted in serious overstocking of state-owned grain enterprises' stock, increasing the proportion of old grain and old chemical grain stock, increasing the stock cost, lower market price than the purchase cost of grain enterprises, and most state-owned grain enterprises were difficult to sell at a favorable price Analysis of the main influencing factors of rice market in China in 2003 2TM 1 The production of rice in China was relatively stable in 2002, and the stock was still at a high level 2TM in 2002, the total sown area of rice in China decreased According to the data of the National Information Center, the total sown area of rice in 2002 was 28.812 million hectares, 3.9% less than the previous year, and the output was 175.73 million tons, only 1% less 2TM according to the prediction of the U.S Department of agriculture in December 2002, China's rice inventory at the end of 2002 was 67.35 million tons, accounting for 64.2% of the world's rice inventory, which is still one of the largest countries in the world Although, since 2001, China's rice inventory began to decline at the end of the period, the current rice inventory is still far higher than the average level of other major rice producing countries in the world In the northeast of China, the yield of rice in Jilin Province has been relatively stable at more than 3.5 million tons in recent five years, and the inventory is higher than 9 million tons Heilongjiang, the largest rice producing province in Northeast China, has more than 10 million tons of rice in stock The huge stock of rice in China will restrain and influence the market price of rice in 2003 2tm2 The single consumption of rice and the reduction of rice reserves in households will have an impact on the growth of rice consumption As a traditional rice production country, the consumption of rice in China is relatively single, and the consumption of rations is still the main form of rice consumption in China, while the proportion of other indirect consumption is very small According to the statistics of the information center of the Ministry of agriculture, the consumption of edible rice accounts for 84.6% of the total consumption of rice in China According to the prediction of authoritative departments, the total consumption of rice in 2002 / 2003 was 134.8 million tons, an increase of 220000 tons compared with 2001 / 2002 and 440000 tons compared with 2000 / 2001 The main reason for the slow growth of consumption is that a resident eats rice In the domestic grain market, the rice consumption is not prosperous, and the main performance of the poor sales is that the price trend of rice is sluggish, and the number of urban residents' household reserves is reduced The price of rice will be pulled down by 2TM 3, grain price bidding and promotion Since a large number of rice stocks are deposited in the state-owned grain depots, in 2003, it is still an important work for the major rice provinces to promote the dumping of grain depots, the auction sale of stale grain and stale grain It is reported that in March 2003, Jilin Province will have a grain and grain auction fair In 2002, at the bidding fair of three northeastern provinces, rice sales were not as good as corn In 2003, a large number of aged rice and aged rice were stored in state-owned grain depots for sale With the improvement of China's rice market this year, the amount of aged rice and aged rice flowing into the market will increase The main producing provinces will also take advantage of the opportunity of rice price rise to reduce inventory and actively organize selling The selling of low-cost aged rice will restrain the rising of market price, but aged rice can only be used as feed and other industrial raw materials, which has little effect on the price of edible rice 2TM 4 The pace of returning farmland to forest is speeding up, and the regional production structure of rice is facing adjustment In 2003, China will accelerate the pace of returning farmland to forest Returning farmland to forests and wetlands will have an impact on the regional adjustment of grain cultivation in China As the main rice producing area in Northeast China, the rice planting area in Heilongjiang Province has expanded year by year since 1995, from 12.527 million mu to 26 million mu in 2002, and the output has reached 9.25 million tons According to the statistics of the National Information Center, the rice stock in 2002 increased by 25.7% compared with that in 2001, accounting for 25% of the total national stock On the one hand, China's rice inventory is overstocked On the other hand, large areas of wetlands have been developed into paddy fields, resulting in the deterioration of the ecological environment Therefore, the national policy of returning farmland to forests will continue to urge some provinces to adjust their production structure In 2003, the total area of returning farmland to forests will be over 100 million mu, an increase of more than 20 million mu over the task of 2002 In 2003, the area of returning farmland to forest in Jilin Province will reach 1.8 million mu, 2.57 times of that in 2002 2TM 5 The autumn grain purchase policy of the three northeastern provinces has reduced the amount of rice stored in state-owned grain depots this year In 2002, the autumn grain purchase policy changed, the protection price level of the three northeastern provinces was lowered as a whole, and the scope of protection price purchase was generally narrowed Over the years, corn, rice and other food varieties under comprehensive protection began to move towards marketization It is learned from Jilin province that, on the one hand, the purchasing scope of state-owned grain depot protection price is narrowed, on the other hand, due to the reduction of rice protection price, farmers' enthusiasm for selling is not high, and the number of state-owned grain depot rice in storage is significantly lower than that in previous years As of March 3, 804000 tons of protected rice had been put into storage in Jilin Province, accounting for 82.1% of the total task, and 141000 tons of rice had been put into storage in the market In addition, according to the notice of the people's Government of Jilin Province on the purchase of autumn grain in 2003 2TM on March 3, Jilin Province will release the purchase of rice protection price for non rice main production areas, old paddy fields without water source guarantee and well irrigation, involving 17 urban areas The protection price of rice will be slightly reduced 2TM comparison chart of rice protection price of three standard products in Northeast China unit: yuan / Jin 2TM Jilin Heilongjiang Liaoning remarks: rice standard products are all third class, 14.5 water 2TM 2001 0.59 0.58 0.60 2TM 2002 0.53 0.53 0.55 2TM changes -0.06-0.05-0.052tm 6 The influence of international rice import and export on China's rice market 2TM in 2002, China exported 1.965 million tons of rice, an increase of 6.3% over the previous year, but still far below the level of 3.75 million tons in 1998 There are many difficulties in China's rice export, the main performance of which is that the international competition is becoming increasingly fierce, the world's main rice export volume is increasing, and the export is expanding actively, and the traditional advantages of China's rice export are not obvious Secondly, China's rice production and marketing itself has many adverse factors, such as: poor quality, the production of low-quality rice; lack of low-temperature storage equipment, the quality of rice is affected Third, China's rice market share in the international market is small, the export destination is small, and China's rice market position and overall advantages are not prominent All these affect the development of rice export space in China Since the accession of 2TM to the WTO, the relationship between China 's grain market and the international market has become closer Relevant information shows that at present, the world's rice stock has dropped to the lowest level in 15 years If the international political situation is unstable in 2003, the shadow of war will continue to envelop the Gulf region, and the price of rice as a strategic material will be affected 2TM recently, the domestic rice market price shows a slight upward trend We know from the northeast rice production area that at present, the purchase price of rice in Jilin market has increased from 0.47 yuan / Jin before the Spring Festival to 0.50 yuan / Jin, and some rice processing enterprises have begun to purchase a small amount of rice If this year's drought continues in the northeast, rice cultivation will be affected and rice prices will continue to rise slowly 2TM