An analysis of the export sales of corn and soybean in the United States

Introduction: the weekly export sales report released by the U.S Department of agriculture on November 23 shows that 52 million U.S soybeans were exported and sold in the week ending November 15 This brings the total number of US soybean export commitments (shipping volume plus bulk sales) to 575 million bushels so far this year, compared with 450.5 million bushels in the same period last year The largest increase in sales compared with the same period last year was for Japan (up 28%) and for the European Union (up 26%) Sales of soybeans to China are almost the same as last year, while sales to Mexico are down 10% These four countries account for nearly 60% of U.S export sales so far But as of November 15, the volume of sales to unknown areas totaled 105 million bushels, compared with 37 million bushels in the same period last year These sales may go to China If so, the four consumer countries account for nearly 76% of U.S export sales so far USDA expects us soybean exports to be 980 million bushels this year, down 18 million bushels from last year With nearly 59% of the U.S target export volume completed, many people suspect that the export volume will exceed the expectation of the U.S Department of agriculture However, historical experience shows that the early export sales process is not a good indicator of the annual export volume In six of the last 10 years, U.S soybean exports exceeded USDA's annual export forecast by 50% In four of the six years, exports exceeded USDA's November forecast In addition to 1999 / 00, U.S soybean exports were 12-40 million bushels (1.3% - 5.5%) higher than the November USDA estimate The average increase was 3.8% or 30 million bushels In 1999 / 00, U.S soybean exports were 109 million bushels or 12.6% higher than the U.S Department of agriculture forecast in November In three of the four years, U.S soybean export sales began to slow down, and the final total export sales exceeded the U.S Department of agriculture's November forecast In fact, U.S soybean export sales exceeded USDA's November forecast in seven of the past 10 years, strengthening the market's view that U.S soybean sales may exceed 980 million bushels this year However, the market must be vigilant, because of the huge production potential of South American soybeans in 2002, and the current economic downturn In the week ending November 15, U.S corn exports totaled about 27 million bushels, bringing the market's total annual commitment to date to 663 million bushels Compared with the same period last year, the total commitment was nearly 667 million bushels The small drop in export commitments this year was mainly due to lower sales to South Korea and Egypt Japan accounts for nearly one-third of the total export sales of corn in the United States USDA expects us corn exports of 2.05 billion bushels this year, an increase of 113 million bushels (5.8%) over last year Only 31% of the total output is used for export sales Does slow export sales in the early part of the year mean the USDA's export forecast is too high? History in recent years does not support this conclusion In the past 10 years, the export and sales of corn in the United States began to slow down in five years, but in three years, the final export of corn exceeded or equal to the November forecast of the U.S Department of agriculture In the five years when the U.S corn export sales began to progress rapidly, the final export volume in three years also exceeded the forecast value in November In six of the last 10 years, final exports exceeded or were equivalent to the USDA's November forecast Therefore, the corn market does not need to worry about panic due to the current slow export sales process and the low number of export tests It is generally expected that the market will accelerate the export sales process of corn in the second half of the year due to the decline of supply and export volume of other major exporting countries For example, the U.S Department of agriculture predicts that Argentina's and China's combined corn exports will fall 188 million bushels this year compared with the same period last year Corn exports from countries outside the United States are expected to decline 233 million bushels Despite the decline in global corn trade, there is still room for the United States to expand exports of corn The soybean and corn markets will be closely linked to the export and export sales process As for soybeans, the growth of soybeans in South America and the purchase (or cancellation) of soybeans in China are very important for us soybean exports to exceed USDA's forecast As for corn, the market should be patient with the slow progress of export sales But for the first time in a market year, corn shipping capacity will exceed 2 billion bushels of exports.