Ammonium nitrate and peptide urea will gradually replace traditional urea

The hot topic of fertilizer market in these two days is the price reduction of urea market in Shandong Province Whether the price reduction is exploratory or to a certain extent is inevitable Here is a brief analysis from the following aspects First of all, the industrial market demand is not strong In the early stage, the support for the price rise of urea market came from the industrial market Due to the high operating rate of high nitrogen compound fertilizer manufacturers, the purchase in the industrial market is booming, plus the upper limit of electricity, and the market inventory is small, which promotes the urea price to rise in a straight line However, in the near future, the downstream compound fertilizer market's fertilizer preparation in summer is basically over, and there is still a period of time before the fertilizer is used for autumn production The factory's operating rate is also significantly reduced, and the demand for raw materials is naturally reduced The urea market lacks the big customer of industrial demand, so the natural sales are weak and the price is lowered Secondly, the grass-roots dealers do not accept the current price very well Due to the excessive increase of urea price in the early stage exceeding the market expectation, the grass-roots dealers failed to seize the opportunity to buy low-priced products When they want to take the goods, they are already at a high level There are risks in taking the goods at a high price The dealers at the grass-roots level are slow to take the goods and wait and see with the money The final urea market is whether there is a price or not It's true that the dealers will take the goods sooner or later, but because they don't make money in selling urea, sometimes they even hang upside down Under the high risk situation, the dealers prefer to cut off the goods rather than take them Two days ago, the author visited a town in Anyang, Henan Province There were more than ten stores operating agricultural materials in this town No matter which one they went to, there was no urea Asked why, he said with one voice, "the risk is too great If the price is reduced, we will lose money, and the high price farmers will not accept it." So the author looked at their shop carefully They were all selling urea substitutes polypeptide urea, polypeptide urea, Juneng net urea, ammonium nitrate, and high nitrogen fertilizer Needless to ask, they also know that selling these products is very profitable for dealers From this point of view, the grass-roots dealers' resistance to high prices can not be ignored Thirdly, the rise of urea price is hard to be digested by farmers Looking back to 2008, due to the large-scale export of urea, the price of domestic urea rose sharply The price per ton exceeded 2500 yuan, and even reached 2900 yuan / ton in Northeast China, which exceeded the purchasing power of farmers, resulting in many farmers reducing the use of chemical fertilizer Farmers who did not reduce the amount of urea use waited until the final result was that they used high-priced fertilizer but sold low-priced grain, which not only seriously dampened the enthusiasm of farmers to grow their fields, but also made farmers realize that it is difficult to unify the price of fertilizer and grain We can also clearly see that power enterprises "manufacture" electricity shortage due to cost inversion Farmers' grain production is a meager profit Won't farmers pile up wasteland because it's unprofitable? Can we still pay for high price urea? Finally, the export situation is not optimistic Although the international urea price continues to soar these days, at present, China's offshore urea price is 460-470 US dollars / ton, but this year's off-season export benchmark price of China's urea is 2100 yuan / ton, including tax Calculated according to the highest FOB price of 470 US dollars / ton, (1.07 - benchmark price / export price) * 100% of the new tax rate, and then deduct 150 yuan of port charges and transportation costs, equivalent to the average ex factory price of 2050 yuan / ton The export situation is not optimistic, and the export is undoubtedly blocked Moreover, urea itself is a high energy consumption product, and the government does not encourage exports Due to the low operating rate of domestic urea plants in the first half of the year, the domestic market is in short supply The government is likely to make new adjustments in tariffs, and exports are hopeless In addition, it is said that the low-cost urea in the early stage of port gathering has returned Although the volume is not very large, it will cause a certain impact on the domestic market, aggravate the panic in the urea market, and accelerate the downward correction of urea price All in all, this year's high price brings multiple tests to the urea market In the game of good and bad, the price reduction of urea enterprises is also helpless.