American Soybean Association weekly

Introduction: USDA released its outlook forecast At USDA's crop Outlook Forum last week, the speakers released their latest forecast for the US soybean outlook in 2005 According to the prediction of the Ministry of agriculture, the soybean planting area in 2005 may reach 2950 hectares, the harvesting area will reach 29 million hectares, and the national average per hectare yield will reach 2.512 tons If 12 million tons of last year's carry over inventory, 81600 tons of imports and 78.1 million tons of domestic production are taken into account, the total supply is expected to reach 90.2 million tons In 2005, the crushing capacity is expected to reach 41.9 million tons, and the seed and residue capacity will reach 4.03 million tons Soybean exports are expected to reach 28.8 million tons With a total consumption of 79 million tons, the ending inventory will reach 11.2 million tons The conversion of Manitoba processing enterprises to American soybeans has affected Manitoba's soybean crops due to the planting conditions last summer and autumn, which has brought challenges to some Canadian soybean processing enterprises Martin Hardt, owner and President of Delmar commodities, said it was now necessary to import soybeans from the United States because of the poor quality of Manitoba's soybeans in 2004 "It can be said that about 75% of the soybeans we squeeze now come from the United States in the next year, and 25% come from China," said hard He said that some processing enterprises mix the domestic inferior soybeans with the American superior soybeans HUD said demand for U.S soybeans could continue into the coming sales year "For now, our main focus is on the supply of beans in Manimba after the spring," he said According to the prediction of Canadian agriculture and food agency, the soybean planting area in Manitoba in 2005 may be smaller than that in 2004 According to the agency's February 7 assessment in its supply and demand report, Manitoba will have 123600 acres of soybeans in 2005, less than 210000 acres in 2004 Due to the sharp rise in domestic grain and feed prices, the growth rate of poultry production in Russia slowed down to 9.5% in 2003, but recovered to 15% in 2004 It is expected that the growth momentum of poultry industry will continue in 2005 and soybean meal demand will remain strong According to Russia's current forecast, the soybean meal imports in 2004-2005 will reach 450000-500000 tons Dry weather may reduce production by 25% in South Rio Grande; rust continues to spread According to the preliminary prediction of agricultural expert Jane Franco bharata of South Rio Grande crop organization, the continuous dry weather in South Rio Grande will reduce soybean production by more than 25% "The state's soybeans are at a critical stage and in great need of rain If the rainfall doesn't increase, the loss will exceed 25%, "bharata said The crop agency has lowered its unit production forecast for Rio Grande do Sul from 2007 kg per hectare to 1505 kg per hectare Similarly, due to drought, the state's corn production may also decline by 45-50% At the same time, soybean Asian rust has spread to Brazil's northeastern state of Bahai If the federal region of Brasilia is included, the number of states affected by rust has reached 12 Rust was also found in Luis Eduardo Magalhaes, a soybean field producing commercial soybeans, in the selado region of Western Bahai state "Until recently, the weather in Bahai was mainly dry, and the spread of rust was very slow," said Claudia Gordo, a researcher at the Government Research Institute Speaking of the southern state of Parana, Guoduo said that Brazil's soybean production was reduced by 9% last year due to rust, with a loss of about 4.5 million tons This year's situation will not be so bad In spite of dry weather in South America, soybean futures fell due to delayed delivery of futures and falling trading volume, and soybean futures fell at the end of February 24 The next day's trade recovered from the previous day's losses as disappointing rainfall in Argentina and confidence in rain in southern Brazil began to decline It is possible that only when the production reduction is large enough, the global supply-demand relationship will become worrisome and lead to the end-users to increase the order quantity The Census Bureau's squeezing report showed that the squeezing volume in January was 148.5 million bushels, roughly in line with the industry forecast The soybean oil inventory is 1.557 billion tons, and the soybean meal inventory held by the crushing plant is 338.54 million tons Soybean futures fell by $2.85 to $209.07 in March, by $3.12 to $210.91 in May, by $3.58 to $211.83 in July, by $2.54 to $187.61 in March, by $2.31 to $189.38 in May, by $2.65 to $191.47 in July, by $8.82 to $470.24 in March and by $8.16 in May $474.87, down $7.94 in July to $477.96