American agricultural counsellor: uncertainties in China's soybean trade (1)

Introduction: Chicago, January 15 (odj) according to a report released on December 9 on the website of the Overseas Agricultural Bureau of the U.S Department of agriculture, the detailed rules for the implementation of China's genetically modified management regulations and the potential factors for the devaluation of the Argentine Peso cause instability in the soybean industry Soybeans and soybean products: genetically modified trick China's soybean trade continues to face a lot of uncertainties The two main uncertainties are the announcement of the detailed rules for the implementation of China's GM regulations on January 7 and the devaluation of the Argentine Peso, which were published in the Chinese media without warning and are scheduled to take effect on March 20 Although it is uncertain, many people still hope that the implementation of the detailed rules will solve some uncertainties in the original documents published on June 6, 2001 At the time of initial reading, the US counsellor said, the implementation rules were almost as vague as the original regulations document For example, the phrase "appropriate security measures" is widely used, but it is not clear The new regulations also do not mention any back-up provisions so that GM products can continue to trade while applying for Chinese safety certificates How the regulations are implemented is crucial to determine the impact of the devaluation of the Argentine Peso If the cargo transportation is allowed to continue to follow the old rules until the roundup ready variety soybean is registered in China, then the trade will be normal In this case, Argentina is expected to occupy a larger market share, while Brazil's market share will be reduced correspondingly, because Brazil's soybean and Argentina are listed at the same time, followed by the United States Another possibility is that the new contract does not allow the old method to be used, because the product must show the safety certificate However, contracts signed before March 20 can be carried out according to the old method The situation will be more or less repeated after the regulations are promulgated on June 6 It was not until the October agreement that American soybeans resumed new trade with China Today, importers are likely to import large quantities of South American soybeans by the March 20 deadline, just as they did when the original rules were announced last June China is likely to have the situation last summer, with a large number of ships arriving at the port, causing huge pressure on port facilities, congestion and delay in unloading The third situation is that the new contract has no trade and the old contract cannot be performed according to the old method If this happens, China's imports of RR soybeans from South America will be effectively banned during the peak loading period in South America, and Chinese mills will face a shortage of processing materials Although it seems unlikely that Chinese officials will allow such a thing to happen, they may not have time to consider the consequences The impact on U.S exporters is unlikely to be felt soon, as the regulation comes into force just in time for the main South American soybean shipment season The regulations allow the Ministry of agriculture to approve the application documents of GM safety certificate within 270 days, which is a necessary document for the import of GM goods Although this means a delay of up to a year, the Ministry of agriculture has said that the vast majority of approval processes will be completed within three months At present, due to the lack of details, it is impossible to specifically comment on how long it will take to apply for and obtain a certificate.