Algorithms show that under the right conditions, mosquitoes can even multiply in winter

Mosquitoes are a formidable parasite that can drink three times their body weight in a meal of water

In a new study published in the journal Scientific Reports, researchers at Texas A&M University developed a mathematical model based on machine learning to accurately predict Aedes albopictus (Aedes albopictus).

"Our goal is to develop an accurate, automated mathematical model to estimate microclimate temperature, which can greatly facilitate the rapid assessment of the number of mosquitoes, leading to the spread of vector-borne diseases

Mosquitoes cause about 1 million deaths worldwide and continue to cause severe damage to public health in many parts of the world

Past studies have largely relied on ambient temperature or general air temperature to predict the number of mosquitoes

Erraguntla said: "People have realized the importance of microclimate conditions, but now data loggers are the only way to record temperature

In their experiment, the researchers placed sensors in common mosquito breeding grounds near Houston, Texas, including rain gutters, shaded areas, and water meters

Next, they input the value of the microclimate temperature into another mathematical model called the population dynamics model, which tracks the life cycle of the mosquito

The model also revealed that the thermal insulation conditions of the rain gutter may cause 84% of the larvae and eggs and 96% of the adult mosquitoes to survive in winter, which is the time of the year that the mosquitoes are assumed to be dormant

Although their climate temperature prediction model has high accuracy, the researchers pointed out that further research is needed to confirm whether their model is applicable to areas outside of Texas

Erraguntla said: "Our work automates the prediction of microclimate conditions, bypassing the expensive and time-consuming process of placing sensors at different breeding sites, collecting sensor data and analyzing them