Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing sector outbreak, New Hope and other 6 stocks rose and stopped.

Introduction: OA show ('918 '); Hexun stock news on Monday, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery plate broke out, and by the end of the afternoon, the plate rose 4.26%, new agricultural development, new hope, Denghai seed industry, Fujian Jinshen, Yong'an Forestry, Fenglin group, 6 shares of which were also the top gainersNews, according to the national development and Reform Commission, in order to protect farmers' enthusiasm for grain production and promote the development of grain production, the state continues to implement the minimum purchase price policy in the main wheat production areas, and appropriately improve the minimum purchase price level in 2014With the approval of the State Council, the minimum purchase price of wheat (third class) produced in 2014 was increased to 118 yuan per 50 kg, 6 yuan higher than that in 2013Qilu Securities recently published a research report that the golden autumn October is the harvest season of traditional agriculture, and will be the best place to buy high-quality agricultural stocksIt is expected that in October, the market's divergence of understanding on the prosperity of the agricultural sub industry will tend to converge, and the deviation of the company's profit forecast will tend to be unified, among which some companies will mainly adjust the above profit forecast; however, with the disclosure of the third quarter report, the poor financial report data of most agricultural companies will pose a challenge to the institutional customers' patience in holding shares, or turn around, or wash the bottom Card, need to use a differentiated vision and structural thinking to goldIt is expected that the volatility of agricultural stocks will significantly expand in October, but for key companies that analysts are firmly optimistic about, the significance of the volatility is not to seize the opportunity to sell, but to find the time to buy
In recent half a year, the practice of farmland transfer has been advancing rapidlyRecently, the positive reports about farmland transfer from CCTV 2 and provincial governments have been rising, which leads to unlimited reverie of A-share secondary market to the policy of high-profile opening of farmland transfer at the third plenary sessionHowever, it is understood that this should be a small probability event, with low-key top-down policy and high-level bottom-up implementation The tune should be more realisticBased on the diversity and complexity of the interest groups involved in the reform, the third Central Committee of the CPC will all issue the basic, coarse-grained, framework and directional policies on land reform, but there will be no "one size fits all" specific standardsIn the future, the government will pay more attention to the design of the upper system, including the reform of household registration system, the social security of rural population and the "same rights and same prices" of agricultural landIt is judged that the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee will have a framework system plan for the above issues, which will be published at the end of the central rural work conference and next year's central No1 document at the latestYasheng is the first choice for land reform, focusing on Beidahuang, Huilong and Hainan rubberAs analysts had previously judged, the price of pigs fluctuated to 15.60 yuan / kg, and there is still some adjustment in the short term, but it will still soar upward from November to DecemberIn recent years, the domestic high temperature and precipitation weather has gradually reduced, the growth rate of pig growth has been increasing rapidly, the number of domestic pig slaughtered has increased slightly, and the probability of adjustment after the festival is expected to be largerHowever, before the Spring Festival, the demand for cured meat will stimulate demand again in autumn and winter before the Spring Festival In the downturn period of livestock and poultry breeding, the dominant feed companies ensure the continuous growth of sales volume and revenue share through their respective business models Different from the livestock and poultry prices, which mainly rely on strong fluctuations to drive profits, feed stocks rely more on stable "gross profit per ton" multiplied by stable "livestock and poultry stocks" to achieve sustained and steady growth of performance, while some advantageous feed enterprises expand in the industry's difficult period and reverse cycle, and further expand market share by virtue of leading product lines, service models and platform advantages Well, Dabei agriculture is the first choice, and feed stocks such as TangRenShen, Haida group and Tongwei Co., Ltd are optimistic Throughout the year, we are optimistic about the steady growth and extended M & A of veterinary medicine leaders The advantage veterinary medicine enterprises ensure the sustainable and stable growth of profits through the enrichment of product lines and the improvement of marketing service network, while the extended expansion can improve their anti risk ability, and actively recommend rip bio, Jinyu group and Dahua agriculture New hope: wait patiently for the fundamentals to improve and increase the holding rating company disclosed in the mid-2013 report, the company realized operating revenue of 30.91 billion yuan in the first half of this year, down 13.82% year-on-year, attributable net profit of 849 million yuan, down 14.86% year-on-year, eps0.49 yuan Among them, the operating revenue and net profit of the second quarter were 16.398 billion yuan and 386 million yuan respectively, down 11.84% and 12.41% year on year respectively We estimate that in the first half of the net profit, Minsheng Bank's equity investment income accounts for about 95% The h7n9 influenza epidemic put great pressure on the second quarter's performance After the outbreak of h7n9 influenza at the end of March and the beginning of April this year, the domestic demand for poultry meat consumption shrank significantly, and the poultry industry suffered a heavy blow
Due to the large correlation between the company's farming and animal husbandry business and the poultry industry chain, the company's business operation in the second quarter was under great pressure in this epidemic event: (1) the company sold 6.919 million tons of various feed products in the first half of the year, down 15.79% year-on-year, and the overall gross profit of feed was 1.325 billion yuan, down 10.92% year-on-year; (2) the gross profit of livestock and poultry breeding in the first half of the year was - 16.84 million yuan, year-on-year (3) the gross profit of slaughtering and meat products was 310 million yuan, up 58.2% year on year The year-on-year growth rate of performance in the second half of the year is expected to pick up From the year-on-year point of view, the seasonal distribution of the company's performance last year was the top high and the bottom low From the aspect of the month on month trend, due to the impact of the "fast-growing chicken" event and the h7n9 influenza epidemic, the company's farming and animal husbandry business suffered a great impact in the first half of this year Subsequently, with the calm of the incident and the gradual recovery of poultry consumption demand, the fundamentals of the company's farming and animal husbandry business are expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year Therefore, combining the two trends of year-on-year and month on month, we believe that the year-on-year growth rate of the company's performance in the second half of the year is more likely to pick up As for the improvement of fundamentals, further follow-up is needed Financial and valuation we expect the company's earnings per share in 2013-2015 to be 1.06, 1.60 and 1.62 yuan respectively With reference to the valuation level of comparable companies, the target price of 14.32 yuan was given, corresponding to the valuation of 15 times PE and 5.77 times PE of the income of agricultural and animal husbandry business and bank equity investment in 2014, respectively, to maintain the company's overweight rating The risk indicates the price risk of raw materials such as corn soybean meal and the risk of animal husbandry disease 6 trading stops such as new hope break out in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2) 6 trading stops such as new hope break out in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (3) 6 trading stops such as new hope break out in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4) 6 trading stops such as new hope break out in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (5) 1 / 5 1 2 3 4 5 next page last page (author:) Share to feed micro blog document.getelementbyid ("bdshell_js") SRC = "http://bdimg.share.baidu.com/static/js/shell_v2.js? Cdnversion = + math.ceil (New date() / 3600000);