Agricultural stocks: looking for investment opportunities in rising prices

Introduction: according to the survey of the National Bureau of statistics, the production price of agricultural products in the third quarter of 2004 increased by 14.7% over the same period last year The price of pork has reached a record high in recent years, while the price of poultry, eggs and all kinds of fish products is also rising The increase in the price of products such as poultry, eggs, meat and fish is first attributed to the increase in feeding costs As shown in the figure above, corn, as the main raw material for feed, rose by 24.5% year on year; secondly, it comes from the increase in demand, among which the increase in farmers' income is an important reason for the increase in demand for eggs, meat and other products Behind the increase in the price of eggs and fish is the improvement of the breeding efficiency of such products The price of piglets rose 54.3% year on year from January to September, exceeding the rise in the price of pigs and pork in the same period The rapid development of the breeding industry was confirmed by the shortage of chicks in many kinds of poultry enterprises At the same time, the fourth quarter is the peak season of consumption of such goods, and it is expected that the prices of these products will continue to maintain, and will fall before the Spring Festival The rising price of agricultural products has benefited the enterprises whose main business is grain production and mariculture of seawater and fresh water Meanwhile, the rapid development of fish, livestock and egg breeding has led to the improvement of the efficiency of relevant feed production enterprises In the choice of enterprises, we emphasize the choice of advantageous enterprises It mainly recommends good managers (600467) engaged in seafood breeding business, Beidahuang (600598) engaged in grain production and Tongwei (600438) engaged in feed production In the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, the domestic cotton price in the last month of the cotton related enterprise investment opportunity has a relatively large drop under the dual pressure of new cotton listing and weak purchasing desire of cotton textile enterprises At present, the cotton price ratio has fallen to the same period last year, with a slight drop, as shown in Figure 2 On October 27, 2004, the Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences released the latest cotton production forecast for 2004, with a total output of 5.938 million tons, an increase of 1.078 million tons or 22.2% over the previous year, but the output is lower than the original estimate of 6.3 million tons After the cancellation of textile quota, the export of textile and clothing will have a rapid growth It is estimated that the consumption of cotton will be more than 7.6 million tons Although the national development and Reform Commission published the cotton import quota of 894000 tons in 2005, the gap is still large It is estimated that the price of cotton will rise and fluctuate within the range of 12500-13500 yuan / ton Due to the seasonal characteristics of cotton production, the enterprise benefit in the third quarter is relatively poor, and the fourth quarter will be the season for the operation benefit of cotton related enterprises The advantageous enterprises will have certain investment opportunities, and the new agricultural development (600359) for producing long staple cotton is recommended.