Agricultural products: expected to rise again

Introduction: last week, under the pressure of international fund closing and domestic spot selling, the domestic and international agricultural product futures markets both experienced a significant correction, especially after the sharp rise in prices in the early stage, the futures prices of some agricultural products opened the distance from the spot prices, which stimulated the selling passion of domestic spot merchants However, we believe that agricultural products futures have different characteristics from other futures, and the annual periodicity of agricultural products prices is particularly obvious in the futures market At present, the release of harvest pressure of agricultural products in the last year is coming to an end Under the cooperation of macroeconomic background and uncertain weather conditions, the futures market of agricultural products will set off waves again Soybean: the influence of South America is in the northern hemisphere The planting period of main agricultural products is between March and April, while the harvest period is between July and September From March to April every year, the harvest pressure of the previous year was gradually released and digested, and the price of agricultural products began to rise from a low level For example, the U.S Department of agriculture expects to export 28.44 million tons of soybeans this year By March 17, the U.S had sold 26.76 million tons of soybeans and shipped 23.71 million tons In terms of the speed of China's weekly import of American soybeans, the latest one is less than that of a week, which shows that the sales of American soybeans are almost finished, and the supply pressure of American soybeans is gradually released At the same time, from the perspective of the progress of soybean harvesting in South America, Brazil has harvested 36% of the soybean so far, while Argentina has harvested 13% Therefore, it will take a while for the centralized scale of soybean marketing in South America At this time, when the global soybean market is out of date, it is estimated from the perspective of time that the strong pattern of soybean prices will be maintained at least until the end of April In the early stage, the rapid rebound of CBOT and domestic soybean prices made the sales enthusiasm of soybean farmers in the United States, Brazil and China increase correspondingly, and the number of domestic soybean transported to Guannei region in Northeast China increased significantly After the early sell-off, the number of beans in the hands of soybean farmers is not large, and it is expected that the later sell-off will also weaken At the same time, due to the end of soybean farmers' reluctance to sell, the pricing power of soybean prices will gradually shift to the hands of oil companies We expect that the attitude of oil companies will change from the original suppression of soybean purchase and sale prices to the pull up, because only by pulling up the spot prices can those strengths be weak Small oil plants with enough money to buy soybeans are eliminated Wheat: half price rise The situation of wheat is almost the same Last year, under the pressure of high yield, wheat also went out of a round of declining market However, due to the support of the national "three agriculture" policy, farmers' income has been increased compared with before The majority of farmers have increased their "resistance to falling" of wheat price Farmers' reluctance to sell leads to the phenomenon that futures fell sharply and spot prices stagnated At present, Zhengzhou Futures Industry Co., Ltd The market price is basically close to the spot price, and the wheat warehouse receipts of delivery warehouse begin to flow out After the Spring Festival, spring ploughing and spring sowing are about to start Farmers need cash to prepare for production, and the enthusiasm to sell wheat is generally increased At the same time, for the purchase and storage enterprises, due to the existence of storage costs and bank interest, it is difficult to sell the wheat collected and stored in the summer harvest last year at a lower price Therefore, at present, the supply pressure of wheat has been basically released, but due to the reluctance of farmers in the early stage to sell As a result, the seasonal rise of wheat prices may be slower than that of soybeans Cotton: the domestic cotton sales were basically over, except for a small amount of seed cotton in Shandong and Henan, other places like Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and Gansu were basically over It is worth noting that the storage and transportation of seed cotton is a very troublesome thing, so most of the seed cotton sold by farmers has entered the ginning process After the seed cotton is processed into lint, it is impossible to "return the package", which greatly reduces the number of seed cotton that can be registered into futures warehouse receipt, and the pressure of futures price is suddenly reduced, which is also the recent cotton futures price is higher than the spot price One of the many reasons In addition to the seasonal cycle of agricultural products, uncertain weather factors will also contribute to the price of agricultural products With the beginning of the new crop planting, the weather will be an important factor For example, before the Spring Festival, the temperature in most areas of the main wheat producing areas is on the high side, and the wheat in some areas is flourishing After the Spring Festival, especially in the near future, the main wheat producing areas are cooling down frequently, and the wheat in Henan Province and other provinces has suffered from frost damage The appearance of "cold in the late spring" will affect the wheat harvest this year Since last winter, the weather in China has been abnormal During and after the Spring Festival, the temperature in many areas of our country has set a new low for more than ten years, which shows that the cold air from the Arctic has become active Some meteorologists believe that the Arctic air mass will continue to thrive this year If the cold air force in the Arctic is strong this year, it will bring rain to the south, while the northern region will maintain less rain and dry weather It is predicted that corn, soybean and other crops in northern China may encounter dry weather during the planting and growth period this year At the same time, the uneven distribution of cold and hot weather systems often causes severe convection and other disastrous weather in local areas during the midsummer