Agricultural product price "blowout" domestic price "Butterfly Effect" appears

Introduction: the editor's price has increased significantly in recent years, especially after the price of agricultural products "blowout", the price has attracted great attention of all parties in the society What is the reason for this round of price rise? How will it affect the domestic listed companies and even the securities market? Does it mean that inflation has appeared in China? D68 "who can tell me why the price of pancakes is rising here?" This confused question comes from the online forum of a well-known financial website in China D68 in fact, the answer is not complicated One of the most direct reasons for the rise in the price of pancakes is naturally the rise in the price of wheat From October 16 to 19, wheat prices in China's main production areas suddenly rose strongly, with an average increase of 40-80 yuan per ton The price of d68 is not only for wheat, but also for corn, rice, soybean and other agricultural products Corn prices in North China rose 80-120 yuan per ton year on year In Anhui Province, the purchase price of rapeseed and rice increased by 20% and 10% respectively over the same period of last year Shortly after the national day, the purchase price of soybeans in some places has risen to 1.32 yuan / Jin, 13.79% higher than before The rise in soybean prices has also led to a surge in the price of edible oil Since the middle of October, the price of edible oil in Shandong, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces has skyrocketed, among which the price of secondary soybean oil in Shandong has risen to 7200 yuan / ton, up 17% year on year The price rise of d68 grain products has triggered a chain reaction in the agricultural product industry chain Figures from the National Bureau of statistics show that food prices rose significantly in September The prices of fresh vegetables, oil, meat and poultry and their products rose 12%, 7.7% and 5.1% respectively in the same month, and the overall price of food rose 3.2% year on year In fact, as early as a few months ago, the price of means of production has risen by different ranges Some experts pointed out that the price of means of production, as a leading indicator of macro-economy, has a time lag in the price transmission of means of life According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the ex factory price of means of production rose by 2.4% year on year in September, affecting the ex factory price of industrial products by about 1.7% Of the 39 industries it surveyed, 22 showed an upward trend in price Among them, oil and gas industry, oil processing and coking industry, ferrous metal mining and processing industry, etc saw a large increase According to the statistics of China Logistics Information Center, the sales volume of lead, nickel and zinc increased 171.3%, 158.8% and 150.3% year on year respectively in August, becoming the three main means of production with the fastest growth Professionals believe that the strong market demand for steel provides support for the rising price of non-ferrous metals In September, the price of construction steel such as screw steel and wire rod was 43% higher than that of the same period last year and 14% higher than that of the second quarter D68 The rising prices of steel and non-ferrous metals reflect the rapid growth of real estate and infrastructure, and the prosperity of the industry also drives all links in the building materials industry chain -- natural rubber, fuel oil, flat glass, aluminum, wood, etc to become the top 10 main means of production with the fastest year-on-year increase in sales in August; in addition, the cement price in East China rose for the first time at the end of September The sales price of float glass is 8% to 11% higher than that in August It should be noted that cotton has replaced steel in the first half of the year and become the leading producer in the second half of the year Due to the impact of natural disasters in some regions in the first half of the year, the cotton price rose by more than 3000 yuan per ton in September alone, and the domestic cotton price at the end of the third quarter has risen by more than 50% compared with that in the middle of 2002 After the national day, the domestic cotton price is rising again China's cotton price index, compiled on the basis of 329 grade cotton, rose from 14107 yuan / ton on September 29 to 15948 yuan / ton on October 13, up 13% in two weeks The purchase price of cotton in Xinjiang has reached the highest level in 10 years The price rise of d68 spot market also reflects the trend of maturity market and stock market As a trend indicator of price operation, futures prices also rose in an all-round way Domestic commodity futures such as copper, natural rubber, soybeans, hard wheat and strong gluten wheat rose all the way since October 13 In the stock market, the trend of raw materials and agricultural products listed companies such as cotton, non-ferrous metals and water mud was also significantly better than the market D68 butterfly effect is a concept in chaos theory It refers to a dependence phenomenon on the sensitivity of initial conditions: the small difference at the input will quickly enlarge to the overwhelming difference at the output, like a butterfly fanning its wings in Beijing today, which may cause a series of events in the atmosphere, leading to a storm in New York one month In the current domestic price rise, butterfly effect seems to have appeared D68