After the epidemic, the leader may quickly change hands, will Merck have a chance to compete?

People say "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet", with the recent disclosure of the semi-annual reports of the world's multinational pharmaceutical companies, almost everyone is talking about how good their business is and how the income of the new crown epidemic vaccine has soared
.

According to statistics, in the first half of the year, in addition to Novartis, the remaining nine companies in the top 10 list of multinational pharmaceutical companies showed positive growth to varying degrees, and Pfizer and AstraZeneca were the two with the largest year-on-year revenue growth; In terms of net profit, the situation is not so optimistic, nearly half of the companies year-on-year growth rate is negative, of which AstraZeneca's net profit fell the most year-on-year, Merck and Pfizer increased the most year-on-year, reaching 74.
72% and 70.
2%
respectively.

Of course, through the analysis of the growth reasons of 10 multinational pharmaceutical companies, it is easy to find many "new crown industry" in the epidemic vaccine, oral medicine and neutralizing antibodies, especially after Pfizer, Merck and other enterprises have greatly affirmed the sales revenue of new crown products, which has once again aroused the confidence
of "players" in new crown related products, especially vaccines.

But is this really the case? Will the market in the second half of the year still be epidemic vaccines and oral medicines? Which product will take over after the epidemic?

The new crown epidemic is a thing of the past, and sales are rising and falling

As Lei Jun once said: "Standing on the wind outlet, pigs can fly", not to mention the multinational pharmaceutical companies that are already strong in strength, standing on the right outlet, the advantage is naturally facing wireless expansion
.

But in the same way, there can be no outlet in the world that can last forever, and it is only a matter of time before the strongest outlet becomes a thing of the
past.

Before 2022, the "new crown epidemic seedling" will undoubtedly be the biggest outlet, and it is also the research field that
the global pharmaceutical companies are most eager to exist and go all out.
But now, with the normalization of the new crown epidemic, the "fatigue" of the new crown epidemic has also begun to appear
.

According to the relevant sales data released by multinational pharmaceutical companies in the first half of the year, a number of enterprises led by Pfizer, the leader of the new crown epidemic, have hit a record high in revenue and net profit, taking Pfizer as an example, revenue and net profit reached 53.
402 billion US dollars and 17.
759 billion US dollars respectively, and the year-on-year growth also increased by 70% and 21%
respectively.
One of the biggest boosters is undoubtedly the mRNA vaccine Comirnaty, which has reached $22.
075 billion in sales in the first half of the year alone, up 95% year-on-year and close to half
of its overall revenue.

While the outlook seems to be infinitely better, if you compare the single-quarter sales revenue and the month-on-month growth rate since the product was launched, you will find that The situation of Comirnaty does not seem to be as good
as we think.

As shown in the above chart, Pfizer's 2022 Q2 COVID-19 vaccine sales revenue of $8.
8 billion, compared with Q1, has been a cliff-like decline, revenue fell sharply by 50%, which also reflects the market concerns about the shrinking orders
of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccines.

Of course, the same situation also occurs in other production enterprises of the new crown vaccine, Johnson & Johnson (Ad26.
COV2.
S), AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria), Moderna (Spikevax) sales have declined to varying degrees after entering the second quarter of 2022, although the companies are very tacit in the semi-annual report content is not mentioned, it seems to be trying to cover up, but the decline has been revealed, perhaps the more the new crown vaccine said that the worse the state showed
。

Considering the performance of the new crown epidemic seedlings of major pharmaceutical companies in the Q3 quarter of last year, it is not surprising that the relevant data of the new crown epidemic vaccines in Q3 this year, whether it is sales volume, or year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates will be negative
.
This also confirms why Johnson & Johnson suspended the production of COVID-19 vaccines at the end of last year, and the nature of the new crown vaccines that cannot make money for a long time announces the past of the outlet, and now it seems to be an outcast
.

The new crown small molecule drug dispute under the outlet

Of course, compared with the dilemma faced by the new crown vaccine, the new crown small molecule drug is much better, after all, in the current normalization of the development of the epidemic, the advantages shown by the chemical drug over the epidemic are just in line with the needs of society, and the role is self-evident
.

The new crown small molecule drug seems to have also shown a look of succession to the new crown epidemic as the next outlet, for this reason, the two most important layout companies in multinational pharmaceutical companies, Pfizer and Merck, also began a sparkly competition situation
in 2022.

The same multinational pharmaceutical company, the product approval time is similar, but the envisaged situation of equal strength has not emerged, but this year staged a textbook headwind reversal, and even entered the second quarter, the competition between the two has shown a one-sided situation
.

Specifically, Pfizer's new crown oral drug Paxlovid revenue in the first half of the year was $9.
6 billion, and the Q2 single machine increased by nearly 400%
month-on-month.
Although Lagevrio, the new coronavirus drug that Merck had high hopes for, also contributed US$4.
4 billion in revenue during the period, even exceeding the 9-valent HPV vaccine
in the same period.
However, compared with the above-mentioned Pfizer new crown oral drugs, both sales volume and Q2 growth rate are much
inferior.
Merck's covid-19 drug, Lagervrio, sold less than half of Pfizer throughout the first half
of the year.

It should be known that Pfizer's defeat of Merck's new coronavirus oral drug Paxlovid is actually a modified product of Boceprevir, a special drug developed by Merck against hepatitis C decades ago
, and related reports even indicate that Paxlovid has at least 20% of its anti-COVID-19 ability or comes from Poprevir fragments, and the key patent to which it belongs to a larger molecular structure still belongs to Merck.

It's like beating you with your stuff, at least for now, the competition between the two is basically a foregone conclusion, and as for the other latecomers, they can only drink soup
in this outlet.

In the epidemic-free era, who are the <> billion varieties after the new crown?

As the saying goes, "the pandemic is only three years old", which means that it is only a matter of time before any epidemic becomes a thing of the
past.
However, for commodities, especially those with special application scenarios, it may also mean disaster
.

Imagine how the umbrella would live if it didn't rain anymore
.
In the same way, if the new crown epidemic is no longer over, what will be the outcome of the new crown vaccine, the new crown special drug, and the neutralizing antibody, and how will the multinational pharmaceutical companies that rely on the new crown epidemic to achieve reverse growth continue?

Therefore, on the sustainable competitiveness of multinational pharmaceutical companies, it still depends on the profitability of non-new crown products of enterprises, and the highest single products of the top 10 multinational pharmaceutical companies in addition to the new crown industry are collected into the following table:

Among them, Merck K medicine has become the world's highest-paid product in addition to the new crown industry with an absolute advantage, and it is also one of the only two varieties with sales of more than 10 billion US dollars
.
Don't look at Merck seems to be in the new crown related products, whether it is the new crown vaccine or the new crown oral drug has been suppressed by Pfizer everywhere this year, but in fact, Pfizer should be grateful for the new crown epidemic, because if it is not it, perhaps the first throne today should be Merck
.

Another 10 billion variety is from Abbvie's "Humira", which is the same as K drug, and achieved sales of more than 101 yuan in the first half of 2022, which is the same as Merck's K drug, but its year-on-year growth rate is 25% of K drug, but it is much
inferior.

In addition, as the most proud ace products of major pharmaceutical companies, there is no doubt that they are mature products that have undergone market verification for a long time, and it is reasonable to say that in the face of changes in the trend of innovative drugs from all sides, the competitiveness of large varieties may also face major adjustments, and the market fluctuations are large.

However, the reality is that almost all the varieties of pin crowns are growing to varying degrees, which shows that the charm of large varieties is still the same
.

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