After the epidemic, how to steer the investment in health care in 2020?

Wen Jie Fan Xin The market opened on February 3 The Shanghai index fell by more than 7.7%, the Shenzhen Composite Index by more than 8.4%, and the biomedical sector was one of the best, with dozens of stocks setting off a rising tide In the new crown epidemic, tourism, catering and many other industries have suffered heavy losses, but for the medical and health industry, some subdivisions have received more attention The newly added users of Ping an good doctor app just released the annual report have nine times the daily average number of visits, some health insurance companies have 180 times the sales volume of insurance policies, and the internet medical, commercial health insurance and other fields have ushered in significant changes In addition to the positive side, on the other side, the offline medical service institutions in the industry are unable to return to work on time due to the epidemic, which has a great impact on them "Survive" has become the primary task of many enterprises this year In the primary market, due to the failure of investment adjustment, the investment scale and investment cases may decline significantly in the first half of 2020, and many VC institutions began to introduce measures to help the invested enterprises Of course, as far as the health care industry is concerned, capital will remain enthusiastic and warm According to a number of investors to arteria network, "in recent years, the first-line VC has gradually increased the weight of investment in the medical and health sector, and many national level funds have gradually participated in the industry's investment." In the long and wide track of health care, each investment institution has different investment ideas By interviewing VC institutions and investors such as Sequoia China, Junlian capital, northern lights venture capital, Softbank China, this paper tries to explore the investment logic and direction of the medical and health industry in 2020 under the influence of the epidemic More than ten years ago, Xu Xiaolin, now the founder of Huagai capital, was also the general manager of CCB international industry fund When combing the investment direction of industrial funds, he paid attention to a curve "Medical industry will not be worse in the second year than the previous year, but it will not have explosive growth Therefore, it will have a sustained and stable growth, and this industry is more suitable for large capital and long-term to continue to pledge this industry " Xu Xiaolin shared his judgment with the team and decided to push for a fund dedicated to medical treatment only CCB medical Growth Fund has become one of the early medical funds in the industry In mid January 2020, Shen NANPENG, global executive partner of Sequoia Capital, and Robert Nelson, co-founder of arch venture partners, held a dialogue at JPMorgan health conference in San Francisco Two top investors talked a lot "Amazon, Wal Mart, Google, Ali These giants will become some kind of medical and health enterprises in the future " "China is building a huge ecosystem around healthcare innovation, just like the development of information technology 20 years ago, the gradual establishment of an innovation ecosystem is the most exciting," Shen said To some extent, this dialogue has opened up a consensus that "healthcare" is the first key word for investment in 2020 According to the data on the official website of the national health and Health Commission, China's total health expenditure is expected to reach 5799.83 billion yuan in 2018, accounting for 6.4% of GDP Five years ago, it was only 5.56% In fact, many people have discovered the potential of the medical and health industry According to the data of China investment network, in 2019, the financing scale of medical health in China's venture capital market reached 7.732 billion US dollars, ranking second only to the Internet "In ten years, big health will become the biggest industry that surpasses real estate and automobile." Chen Dongsheng, founder of Taikang Insurance Group, said such a golden sentence at a meeting last year Ma Yun has also publicly stated on different occasions that the area most likely to give birth to the next bat enterprise is medical health Deng Feng, founder of Aurora Borealis venture capital, said in an interview with arteria.com: "medical health is an industry that will undergo great changes in China in the next 10 to 20 years Many enterprises with a market value of 10 billion dollars in the future may come from life science and health care, including biopharmaceutical, medical equipment, diagnosis, service, data medical and all other aspects are accelerating forward." It can be seen that every subdivision field of medical treatment is "inch land inch gold" VC has already entered this industry with money, fighting methods and logic The founder Deng Feng is responsible for the investment of northern lights venture capital in the field of medical health In 2009, the figure of northern lights appeared in the field of medical health, upholding the "strategic radical, tactical conservative" approach "When we look at a certain field, we must go first At the beginning, even if you pay tuition fees, you should first invest in one or two projects and do fire reconnaissance For example, you should start with the projects in the middle and later stages, see them more clearly, and then re invest in both funds and people, and gradually go to the early stage " "Hope to invest in the best companies in the most potential areas." According to Zhai Jia, general manager of Sequoia China, the way he invests can be to incubate enterprises with large platform companies in addition to the regular selection of start-ups In 2018, after Sequoia China paid attention to the field of health insurance, it jointly launched and invested in Yuanxin Huibao technology together with expert doctors, and also jointly launched and invested in nuawa technology together with Zhongan insurance By 2019, after the full outbreak of health insurance, Sequoia China has become the most dazzling investor in this field Hillhouse capital is an empowering approach, which is in favor of industry M & A and integration At one time, it was looking for the largest amount of investment in the track The most striking case was that it spent billions to buy 10000 pharmacies Jingwei China is in the early stage of investment, with a single investment of less than 10 million US dollars, mainly in the fields of drug administration and offline medical services CDH capital and Huagai capital are PE style The epidemic is coming The medical industry is under the spotlight, which magnifies the anxiety and worry about the lack of overall medical resources Evergrande Research Institute has issued a widely circulated analysis report, in which there is a saying: "catering, tourism, film, transportation, education and training and other industries have the greatest impact, and medical and online games and other industries have benefited According to a simple estimate, the box office of the movie is 7 billion yuan (market forecast) + the retail of food and beverage is 500 billion yuan (assuming a cut back) + the tourism market is 500 billion yuan (completely frozen) In just seven days, the direct economic losses of these three industries alone will exceed 1 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.6% of the GDP of 21.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2019, excluding other industries " As the analysis of this report, in this epidemic, the anti cyclical characteristics of the medical industry are further highlighted, and it is expected that more capital and R & D will be invested in the medical related industries In this epidemic, the analysis of the impact of the epidemic on the medical and health sectors is as follows: For new drug enterprises, the overall impact is more positive, the most direct is that the progress of clinical projects is delayed, and the potential impact of other R & D is not large in the short term, and there will be a green light for policy approval on the R & D of new crown vaccine; For device enterprises, it may have some impact, and the clinical and evidence collection time of some new products may be delayed; For diagnosis enterprises, the overall impact is positive, which can promote the product sales of molecular diagnosis enterprises and respiratory pathogen diagnosis enterprises in the short term; For service enterprises, the offline business oriented companies have a large short-term impact, and the institutions such as Stomatology, medical beauty and physical examination cannot return to work However, in terms of the investment logic of the whole medical and health industry under the epidemic, the impact is not significant "This year we will continue to maintain the investment speed and scale in this industry," said Wu Kai, partner of Softbank China In the face of the impact of the epidemic on enterprises, VC companies have also quickly introduced many measures to help enterprises Northern lights venture capital has been focusing on early projects in the field of science and technology, which currently do not belong to the core industry hit this time But Aurora Borealis also communicated with the invested enterprises one-to-one at the first time, combing the risk points in budget, cash flow management, financing plan, etc In addition to business services, finance, human resources and legal services also provide special services for enterprises in a special period, including timely communication with cooperative banks, putting forward short-term loan programs to alleviate the financial pressure of enterprises, researching and sharing various tax and subsidy policies issued under the epidemic situation, carrying out the resumption process training under the epidemic situation, and giving priority to subsequent financing and restructuring of enterprises Time to provide professional legal advice and financing judgment Song Gaoguang, executive director of Aurora Borealis venture capital, said that medical treatment will once again enter the public's eyes, and the industry will attract good signs "Medical treatment will go against the trend in the disaster, and after the baptism of the disaster, the industry will rise to the fore, ushering in more innovation and rapid improvement." Qi Fei, chief investment officer of Junlian capital, also has a similar view He thinks that the investment in the medical and health industry has been on a fast track in recent years, and will go down according to the existing path and speed "The main medical investment institutions in the market have gone through the cycle, will not be intimidated by the epidemic, and will not rush in because of the epidemic The basic investment logic of the epidemic in this industry It will not have a significant impact, but it will also promote the rapid growth of some subdivisions " However, Qifei felt that this year's epidemic has a great impact on the macro-economy At present, there is no timetable If it doesn't get better as soon as possible, many enterprises will not survive the epidemic For enterprises, "the most important thing for this year is to survive." Jinyu medicine, Herui gene and Jinshao gene invested by Junlian capital are all cooperating with the epidemic detection at the front line of anti epidemic During the Spring Festival, Junlian capital's medical team communicated with the CEOs of more than 80 medical enterprises invested by Junlian capital, followed up the impact of the epidemic on the enterprise and the cash flow of the enterprise, discussed the follow-up response plan with the enterprise, and introduced bank loans to enterprises with tight cash flow Sequoia China's investment team, working online during the outbreak, will hold two demo days for nearly 30 early member enterprises to help them connect with more than 50 venture capital institutions Among the member enterprises invested by Sequoia, some enterprises in Wuhan have been greatly affected The Sequoia team is deploying short-term support programs targeted at hundreds of enterprises to complete the training of remote office collaboration tools, prepare for telephone telemarketing training, organize recruitment and labor law training, etc., and cause many banking institutions and some enterprises to discuss loan cooperation during the epidemic Wang Xiaocen, who used to work for CLP health fund and Jingwei China, is a well-known investor in Internet medicine During the outbreak, she and a listed company completed their investment in a vaccine R & D enterprise in five days She believes that the pharmaceutical industry has been optimistic for a long time, and the epidemic has little impact on the overall investment decision-making "This industry is greatly affected by the policy I think that after the epidemic, the government will pay more attention to this industry, and will be more and more tolerant of this industry in terms of policy, capital, and approval " Wang Xiaocen said Zhai Jia recently saw a detail on social media about the story of how many patients can be received by the total number of wards in Hubei hospital The query method still relies on human resources, which is very traditional and cannot be updated in real time "This detail clearly reflects the problem of insufficient medical informatization There is no data platform for local hospitals and regional medical consortia