After the counter-cyclical adjustment of the "big gift package" of the pig industry welcome policy...

In July, the sales revenue of live pigs of the top-listed pig companies fell again

The head pig company's losses in July are getting heavier

In the face of declining sales, negative year-on-year growth, and record losses in July's report card, listed pig companies may feel a headache

According to incomplete statistics from a reporter from China Business Daily, as of August 11, the sales price of live pigs for the ten listed pig companies that have released a live pig sales briefing for July is still below 16 yuan/kg, which is below the industry cost line

Among them, Muyuan shares, which once led the major pig companies in performance, experienced negative sales revenue growth for the first time, and pig sales revenue fell by 13.

At present, the industry is pessimistic

During the downturn, the industry needs more policy support

The rise and fall of live pig prices and the performance of listed pig companies are all affected by the "pig cycle"

In order to ease the "pig cycle" and stabilize production capacity

At the end of July this year, the State Council executive meeting determined measures to stabilize pig production capacity

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told a reporter from China Business Daily: “In fact, this kind of stable production policy is even more necessary during the downward cycle of pig prices

Counter-cyclical regulation mechanism is coming

The opinions pointed out that it is necessary to establish a counter-cyclical regulation mechanism for live pig production, take the change in the number of reproductive sows as the core control indicator, establish a regulation mechanism that automatically triggers abnormal changes, and maintain a reasonable inventory level of reproductive sows

Zhu Zengyong said that the introduction of this policy also sets two targets

The current price of live pigs is falling too fast, and the industry is still at a loss

"From the perspective of overall measures, the newly issued policy is consistent and more precise with the relevant policies of the State Council's "Opinions on Stabilizing Live Pig Production and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading" in 2019.

When did the headwind come back?

Although the policy has helped the development of the pig industry, the current direction of the pig market is still unclear

Wen's shares also said that, generally speaking, there is a time difference between the implementation of national policies in provinces, cities and counties

When will the downward cycle of this "pig cycle" end? Zhu Zengyong told a reporter from China Business Daily that from the current state, it is difficult to determine whether the downward phase will end in 2022 or 2023

"The introduction of the policy can also play a role in alleviating the excessive fluctuations
in the'pig cycle' .
When farmers face a decline in pig prices or losses, different farmers have different reaction times
.
Some people may lose a month or two and begin to adjust Production capacity has been reduced; some farmers may lose five or six months before adjusting production capacity
.
The policy is introduced to prevent problems such as the break of the capital chain.
Under the premise of a stable industrial policy environment, the market mechanism can be used to regulate the production of farmers.
Households gradually adjust their production capacity while steadily advancing the transformation of the industry to scale, industrialization and modernization
.
” Zhu Zengyong said
.