A summary of soybean futures trading in Dalian stock exchange in 2001

Introduction: relevant persons of China International Futures brokerage company make the following comments and Prospects on soybean futures trading in 2001 and market prospect in 2002 In 2001, under the premise of synchronous growth of global soybean supply and demand, the market price of soybeans fluctuated sharply from 1800 to 2400, and the main contract amplitude reached 1600 From the beginning of the year to the end of April, driven by the first decline of CBOT soybean market, the main contract price of Dalian soybean dropped from 2380 to 1780, with a drop of more than 600 points; in the first ten days of June, China issued the regulations on the safety management of genetically modified organisms, and with the support and stimulation of the weather theme and policies, Dalian soybean in just two and a half years In July, the market fell again as the implementation rules of genetically modified organisms, which are highly expected by the market bulls, were delayed to come out From the beginning of July to the end of the year, the market went out of three waves of decline, during which two rebounds were driven by the market's favorable expectations for the implementation of the GM rules Ayr has been fluctuating from 1800 to 2400 since 1999, but the fluctuation in 2001 is obviously larger than that in previous years There are three main reasons: first, the growing global consumption demand partially offsets the growth of global output, resulting in the overall balance of soybean supply and demand in 2001; second, with the continuous recovery of the domestic futures market, a large number of speculative capital flows into the futures market; third, with the continuation of the market's oscillation in recent three years, the demand for market breakthrough is growing However, this demand is contrary to the reality of the general balance of supply and demand in the year, which leads to the aggravation of market long short divergence at the end of each stage Ayr according to analysis, considering the impetus of China's accession to the WTO to the world economy, the global economy is likely to recover next autumn But the possibility of raising the price center of the world's agricultural products is at the cost of the downward shift of the price center of China's commodities In response to the impact, China's Congress has issued some policies to relieve the pressure of entering WTO, but the policies can only alleviate the impact of imports on the domestic market in a phased manner, and can not reverse the downward trend of the focus of domestic agricultural product prices due to the impact of entering WTO Ayr from next year's supply development trend, the output growth in South America and the United States still shows no sign of weakening, that is to say, the growth of soybean output in 2002 is not obvious, and the biggest variable is still weather In the absence of accidents, soybean demand will remain stable, but the growth rate will be significantly smaller than that in 2001 Ayr to sum up, the soybean market in 2002 still does not have the conditions to go out of the bull market However, due to the uncertainty of relevant domestic policies and future weather factors, the market also has the conditions for staged and large-scale rebound Ayr (author:) to feed Weibo to: