A good time for big business to implement the new rules

Introduction: the latest >, one of which contains important information is as follows: Article 18 (this clause is applicable to the contract after A0501) the price of soybean package 1 is included in the contract transaction price That is to say, the contract soybean transaction price after A0501 is lower than that before A0501 by one package price With the implementation of the new regulation, there is a good opportunity between November 04and January 0501 Specific analysis is as follows: first, how much is the price of packaging? From our calculation, we can know that one ton of yellow soybean needs 11 jute bags, 3.6 yuan for each jute bag (New) and 1.8 yuan for each jute bag (old) Therefore, the price of 1 ton yellow soybean packaging is 3.6 * 11 = 39.6 yuan, and the price of old jute bag is 1.8 * 11 = 19.8 yuan From November to January, cost C = capital interest + delivery fee + annual interest of storage fee is 5.8%, delivery fee is 4 yuan / ton, storage fee is 0.4 yuan / ton * day, 60 days Based on the calculation of the closing price of Soybean under the 0411 contract on August 11, 2660: C = 2660 × 5.8% ÷ 6 + 2 × 4 + 0.4 × 60 = 25.7 + 8 + 24 = 57.7 (yuan), the above calculation results show that, in the absence of the implementation of the new rules, a reasonable price difference between the November and January contracts should be 57 yuan / ton from the perspective of pure theory That is, the difference between the January contract price and the 11 contract price is 57 yuan / ton According to the first and second analysis, the value of 0501 contract is 39.6 + 57.7 = 97.3 yuan / ton higher than that of 0411 contract The actual price difference is RMB 2660 of 0411 contract, which is 52 yuan / ton higher than RMB 2608 of 0501 contract Cause analysis: the following is the historical data of contract price difference from January to November (the huge difference is caused by the expiration of one of the contracts, which can be ignored) why does it cause such a difference? The author believes that in the declining trend of soybean, people are bearish and unwilling to buy After the soybean processing in November, the soybean oil market is the peak of consumption in the Spring Festival After the soybean processing in January, the soybean oil market may miss the golden opportunity to sell, so there is sometimes an inverse price difference between November and January However, the Spring Festival in 2005 appeared in the middle of February, which will not have a negative impact on the soybean processing and sales in January The arbitrage plan sells 0411 soybeans and buys 0511 soybeans at the same time The price difference (0501-0411) - 50 yuan / ton profit target price difference (0501-0411) reaches 20-40 yuan / ton to close the position The profit is 70-90 yuan / August 11 The position of 0501 contract is increased by more than 46000 hands to more than 173 thousand hands Its liquidity is greatly enhanced and arbitrage operation can be carried out because 0411 is the first contract for the listing of new soybeans It's very unlikely that there will be more short squeeze Wait patiently for the profit opportunity to appear before closing the position