A brief review of world soybeans in October

Introduction: (1) review (1) world production: the October production report of the U.S Department of agriculture predicts that the world soybean production in 2001 / 02 is expected to reach 6.638 billion bushels, an increase of 275 million bushels compared with that in 2000 / 01 The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts soybean production to reach 2.907 billion bushels in 2001 This forecast is 149 million bushels higher than the record production in 2000 and 73 million bushels higher than the forecast in September USDA forecasts that soybean production in South America is expected to increase by 132 million bushels, to a total of 2.642 billion bushels The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay will produce 71.9 million tons of soybeans in 2001 / 02, about 5 percentage points higher than last month's forecast Brazil is expected to produce 41.5 million tons of soybeans in 2001 / 02, up from 38.4 million tons in 2000 and an average of 29.9 million tons in five years (1995-1999) At present, Argentina is expected to produce 27 million tons of soybeans, higher than 26.5 million tons in 2000 and 16.8 million tons on average in five years Paraguay's soybean production in 2001 / 02 was 3.4 million tons, the same as the previous year Soybean production in 2001 / 02, including that in the United States and other soybean producing countries such as China and the European Union, is expected to reach 180.67 million tons, 7 million tons higher than that in 2000 (2) world soybean consumption: oil world estimates that the world soybean consumption in 2001 / 02 is 1806.3 million tons, compared with the previous estimated value of 170.58 million tons, because of the lower supply of sunflower seeds and rapeseed Oil world also expects U.S soybean stocks to rise 21 percent to 8.16 million tons by the end of August And think this inventory is not huge (3) World soybean trade volume: in 2000 / 01, the world soybean trade volume increased by 17 percentage points to a record 2 billion bushels The United States accounts for half of the world's exports, but South American soybean exports have grown 42% in the past year The EU and China both significantly increased soybean imports by 13% and 31% respectively The EU accounts for almost 33% of all imports, while China accounts for 24% of world soybean imports The following is divided into two parts: the first part is the situation of the world's major soybean exporting countries; the second part is the situation of the world's major soybean importing countries （2） Situation of major soybean exporting countries in the world: 1 Situation of soybean in the United States: (1) the forecast of USDA on Soybean in the United States The USDA's production report in October predicted that the soybean output of the United States in 2001 would reach 2.907 billion bushels This forecast is 149 million bushels higher than the record production in 2000 and 73 million bushels higher than the forecast in September At the beginning of the 2001 / 02 market year (i.e September 1, 2001), the U.S soybean inventory is estimated to be 248 million bushels, while at the end of the 2001 / 02 market year, it will be increased to 360 million bushels, which will be the highest ending inventory level in 15 years In 2000 / 01, the world soybean trade volume increased by 17 percentage points to a record 2 billion bushels, with the United States accounting for half of the world's total exports U.S soybean consumption is expected to continue to grow, with stocks of soybeans and soybean oil expected to remain large Prices are expected to continue at the low levels of the past three and a half years, unless there is a supply side problem For the 2001 / 02 market year, US soybean prices are expected to average 440 million bushels Supply prospects (1) soybean crushing: record domestic soybean meal consumption and export increase, resulting in a record domestic soybean crushing in 2000 / 01 market year However, for the current year, the domestic soybean meal consumption in the United States is expected to expand at a slower rate, because the number of live pigs is stable, while the number of live cattle is reduced, and the production of broilers is expected to expand at a rate of 2.5 percentage points The domestic soybean meal consumption increased by 2 percentage points, reaching 32.49 million tons in total (2) the soybean planting area in the United States reached a record: the average per unit yield reached the highest level since the historical record in 1994 Soybean acreage is expected to reach 75.4 million acres in 2001, an increase of 1.2 million acres over last year, but a decrease of 1.2 million acres over the USDA's intention to sow report in March At present, the average soybean yield in the United States is expected to be 39.2 bushels per acre, 1 bushel higher than the forecast in September and 1.1 bushel higher than the average of last year This is also the second high-yield year in the history of the United States, 2.2 bushels lower than the historical record in 1994 (3) China's procurement is slow, South America's soybean harvest is good, and the U.S export will still face the fierce competition China issued the regulatory requirements on the import of genetically modified soybean in June this year, but there are no specific implementation rules As of October 11, China purchased 36 million bushels of U.S soybean delivered in the current year, but only imported 4 million bushels The total sales volume, together with the cumulative soybean exports (all destinations) to the United States as of October 11, totaled 369 million bushels, a 12 percentage point increase over the same period last year However, in the first six weeks of the year, only 63 million bushels of shipments were shipped to all destinations, a 43% decrease from the cumulative shipments in the same period last year The U.S market was worried about this, but by late October, the American Soybean Association said it had "learned that China is ready to accept a" regulatory review statement "issued by the U.S government as an interim measure before China completes its regulatory review of Soybeans Planted with biotech enhanced seeds The expectation of another soybean harvest in South America in 2002 means that American export will still face the white hot competition USDA currently expects soybean production in South America to reach 2.642 billion bushels, 5.3 percentage points higher than that harvested in 2001. Soybean planting area is expected to increase by 11 percentage points in Brazil and 4 percentage points in Argentina If this production becomes a reality, it will be difficult for the United States to imagine exporting 1 billion bushels of soybeans in 2000 / 01 (4) in the near future, soybean prices in the United States continue to put pressure on soybean prices due to the huge supply The annual average price of soybeans is expected to be much lower than the loan rate and the level in the past three years The annual average price is expected to be just $4.40 If there is a problem with soybean production in South America, or if the growth season in 2002 is not good for soybeans in the United States, then this estimated price level is obviously too low History will show that spot soybean prices are approaching seasonal lows, if not this market year's lows Although there will be a new low next summer if there is a huge prospect of soybean production next year, the probability is that it will hit the annual low of the market at present If the current low has been set, the market is expected to reach an annual high between May and August 2002 2 Soybean situation in Argentina: the soybean planting area in 2001 / 02 will be a record The increase of soybean planting area in Argentina is because it is more profitable than corn price In addition, the natural conditions are more suitable for planting soybean According to the prediction of the Ministry of agriculture of Argentina, in 2001 / 02 (October to September of the next year), Argentine farmers will plant a record 11.2 million hectares (27.675 million acres) of soybeans, an increase of 6.0 percentage points over the same period of last year At that time, the output was 26.7 million tons, and the planting area of soybeans will increase by 124.0% in the past 10 years 3 Soybean situation in Brazil: the soybean planting area in 2001 / 02 will be greatly increased The U.S Department of agriculture expects that the soybean planting area in 2001 / 02 will reach a record 15.5 million hectares, 500000 hectares higher than last month's forecast, 1.5 million hectares higher than last year's, or 11 percentage points This year, the planting area of soybean competing crops, such as corn and cotton, is expected to be significantly reduced, because last year's cotton and corn production set records, resulting in excessive domestic corn and cotton supply in Brazil, the price of domestic corn and international cotton fell from last year's level, the cost of planting cotton and corn and other crops increased significantly, and farmers have no enthusiasm for sowing 。 Soybean production also set a record in 2000 / 01, but as soybean is mainly for export market, the increase of soybean production will lead to the increase of soybean export Soybean value is calculated in US dollars With us dollars in the hands of soybean growers, it is very convenient to finance and get the support of the government, which is incomparable to other crops In addition, the global economic growth slows down, especially the recent devaluation of the Brazilian currency real Since October 2000, the exchange rate against the US dollar has dropped by 30%, which makes the soybean value relatively greatly improved compared with the competitive crops such as cotton and corn, which are mainly sold to the domestic market Because the proportion of total input and consumption of soybean will increase, the yield per unit of crop is expected to be close to the historical record Brazil's exports of both old and new beans are very strong According to the data provided by Brazil's Ministry of foreign trade, as of October 15, Brazil's export registration in 2000 / 01 totaled 15.68 million tons, 41% higher than the registered volume of 11.035 million tons in the same period last year Brazil's soybean export registration data in 2002 / 03 (February to January) reached 2.336 million tons, a 40% increase over the previous 15 days, almost three times the registration volume of 729000 tons in the same period last year New bean registrations continued to rise strongly as farmers sought to preserve the jagged Brazilian real exchange rate Due to the lack of genetically modified soybeans in Brazil, importers from Europe and Japan are keen on Brazilian soybeans In the first half of this year, Brazil's exports to Europe increased by 23 percentage points over the same period of 2000, reaching 9.5 million tons, while Brazil's exports to Japan increased by 138% over the same period of last year Soybeans are the cash cow of Brazil's agriculture, with annual trade income of 4 billion US dollars The country accounts for 20% of the global soybean trade supply, second only to the United States in export sales It is expected to surpass the United States in terms of exports in the future （3） Main soybean importing countries: 1 EU import situation: the import is expected to increase In 2001 / 02, the EU soybean import volume is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons (1) if the price of soybean meal decreases, the demand of EU will increase accordingly This is due to the fact that demand in Europe is believed to change significantly as soybean meal prices change (2) the new outbreak of BSE is also a good factor for soybean meal demand (3) a report of the European Commission published the findings of 81 research programs funded by Brussels According to the report, in 15 years of research, the European Union did not find any harm to human beings or the environment caused by genetically modified crops or foods derived from self transformed crops In addition, the report concludes that GM crops may be safer than traditional crops and food This is also a potential factor in increasing soybean meal demand 2 Taiwan's import situation: weak demand for soybeans Due to the slowdown of Taiwan's economy, the demand for local feedstuffs weakens, and the local inventory is sufficient, importers are likely to put their hopes on the further reduction of world prices and shipping rates, thus delaying the purchase In addition, due to the uncertain future of feed demand after Taiwan's accession to the WTO, the demand for soybeans in the near future is even weaker The market expects that after Taiwan's accession to the WTO, the influx of cheaper meat will lead to a reduction of the local livestock industry.