A brief analysis of the market price of lysine in China this year why "head heavy and light"

we observed that in the first half of this year and even the first three quarters, always in the 8000-9000 yuan / ton range of consolidation, failed to leave this large rangeWe believe that this is mainly due to the overall weak demand, lower prices than in previous years, and smaller price fluctuationsAnd into the fourth quarter, the price fell sharply below the 8 yuan / kg of the important integer mark, from the cost perspective, we think this is still closely related to the corn price trendLWS
- In 2015, China's lysine price sass below last year's level, the fourth quarter price show "deep decline"LWSLWSas shown in the chart above, since last year by China's low macroeconomic operation, anti-corruption restrictions on consumption, environmental protection breeding and other factors, feed consumption ended growth, and into the adjustment cycle, China's lysine market also ended the era of high consumption growth (the previous compound growth rate of up to 10%-20% or even higher) Considering that the first half of this year pig storage column decline significantly year-on-year, as well as the price of soybean meal depressed, DDGS and sorghum in the use of feed increased, the need for lysine market rigid consumption decline, the characteristics of oversupply in the market is very obvious, so overall, the market price of lysine in China for most of this year is lower than the same period last year, concentrated in the 8000-9000 yuan / ton range of operation, and to the fourth quarter, with China's corn market gradually "market-oriented" price declineLWS
- China's corn market "bear state" intensified, the rapid price decline in the fourth quarter to the lysine market price "difficult to support"LWSthis year, China's corn production again, market insiders expect to 2016 China's national storage corn inventory reached a record 200 million tons, which can meet China's normal consumption demand for more than 8 monthsUnder the double whammy of El Nino, the National Reserve corn auction and subsidy policy, the spot price of domestic corn has also been hit, and the price has accelerated its declineThis summer, China's corn market is difficult to play a corresponding support for lysine as usual, and from the current domestic corn price decline trend, in theory significantly negative in the lysine marketAnd from this year's corn market price decline time, and lysine market price trend is also relatively in line LWS
LWS We observed that in the first half of this year and even the first three quarters, it was always in the range of 8000-9000 yuan/tonne, and failed to break out of this large range We believe that this is mainly due to the overall weak demand, lower prices than in previous years, and smaller price fluctuations And into the fourth quarter, the price fell sharply below the 8 yuan / kg of the important integer mark, from the cost perspective, we think this is still closely related to the corn price trend LWS
　　- In 2015, China's lysine price sass below last year's level, the fourth quarter price show "deep decline" LWS LWS as shown in the chart above, since last year by China's low macroeconomic operation, anti-corruption restrictions on consumption, environmental protection breeding and other factors, feed consumption ended growth, and into the adjustment cycle, China's lysine market also ended the era of high consumption growth (the previous compound growth rate of up to 10%-20% or even higher) Considering that the first half of this year pig storage column decline significantly year-on-year, as well as the price of soybean meal depressed, DDGS and sorghum in the use of feed increased, the need for lysine market rigid consumption decline, the characteristics of oversupply in the market is very obvious, so overall, the market price of lysine in China for most of this year is lower than the same period last year, concentrated in the 8000-9000 yuan / ton range of operation, and to the fourth quarter, with China's corn market gradually "market-oriented" price decline LWS
　　- China's corn market "bear state" intensified, the rapid price decline in the fourth quarter to the lysine market price "difficult to support" LWS this year, China's corn production again, market insiders expect to 2016 China's national storage corn inventory reached a record 200 million tons, which can meet China's normal consumption demand for more than 8 months Under the double whammy of El Nino, the National Reserve corn auction and subsidy policy, the spot price of domestic corn has also been hit, and the price has accelerated its decline This summer, China's corn market is difficult to play a corresponding support for lysine as usual, and from the current domestic corn price decline trend, in theory significantly negative in the lysine market And from this year's corn market price decline time, and lysine market price trend is also relatively in line LWS
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