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The vaccine brother is in a difficult period
.
.
In 2021, the company's agent (HPV vaccine-related) operating income was 20.
93 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 49.
9%), accounting for 68.
28%
of the total revenue.
Rejoice in it, be burdened
by it.
The agency agreement between Zhifei Biotech and Merck expires in the first half of 2023, and the renewal of the contract is not a problem, and the real challenge comes from the change
in the competitive landscape.
(HPV vaccine batch issuance of Zhifei Biologics Source: Company financial report, Jinforg)
The potential strongest opponent of the HPV nine-valent vaccine is Wantai Biologics
.
Wantai Biotech recently said that the company's nine-valent HPV vaccine under development as an iterative product, can be declared for marketing in advance with 12 months of persistent infection, and the current clinical design of the company's nine-valent HPV vaccine is consistent with the "Technical Guidelines for Clinical Trials of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine (Draft for Comments)", which means that it is expected to shorten the company's vaccine launch time
.
.
In the context of market worries about Zhifei's "green and yellow", who can make up the HPV vaccine and become the company's largest growth pole?
Following the launch of a generation of new crown recombinant protein, the second-generation seedlings of Zhifei Biotechnology have also launched international clinical trials, but the new crown vaccine market is greatly affected by policies and is not a definite and sustainable market.
Zhifei pinned his hopes on the field of
tuberculosis.
Zhifei Biotech has developed Yika for diagnosis, prevention & treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis latent infection people with pulmonary tuberculosis disease "microcard" products, and recently recognized by WHO, the company's management has said: tuberculosis vaccine will become the most important vaccine in the future, or will produce a market size
of about 50 billion.
More brokerages predict that the peak sales of Zhifei Bio-related products will reach 5 billion
.
tuberculosis.
In contrast, GSK and Merck are not optimistic
about the prospects for conjugate vaccines.
According to Coherent Market
According to Insights, the global market value of human tuberculosis vaccine (tuberculosis accounts for more than 80% of tuberculosis) is estimated to be 50.
57 million US dollars in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of only 4%
from 2022 to 2030.
At the same time, multinational pharmaceutical companies believe that the input and output of relevant vaccines are not proportional
.
When cracks appear in the egg, it may at some point spread throughout the body
.
.
01 Major shareholders continue to reduce their holdings
01 Major shareholders continue to reduce their holdingsSince the listing of Zhifei Biotechnology, the majority shareholder Jiang Rensheng's shareholding has decreased from 55.
8% to 48.
32%, and the overall reduction of 7.
48%
of the total share capital.
It is worth noting that Zhifei Biotech has soared with the hot sales performance of HPV vaccine and new crown vaccine, and the stock price has also continued to rise, and major shareholder Jiang Rensheng has reduced his holdings more frequently and arbitraged more and more
since 2020.
Wu Guanjiang, another former second-largest shareholder, has reduced his holdings frequently
.
The man's first reduction in Zhifei began in 2012, when he founded Shenzhen Three Generations Technology Co.
, Ltd.
("Internet + Vaccination" platform) and left as vice chairman
of Zhifei Biotech in August 2015.
Up to now, Wu Guanjiang is expected to cash out more than 10 billion yuan from listed companies, which has fallen from the second largest shareholder in the early years to the seventh largest shareholder, and the possibility of
"liquidation" completely withdrawing in the future is not ruled out.
Although the decline in the stock price of Zhifei Biotech since 2021 is not clearly and directly related to the reduction of holdings by Jiang Rensheng and Wu Guanjiang, it has also hit market confidence
to a certain extent.
Wu Guanjiang's "solo flight" is understandable, and Jiang Rensheng, the major shareholder of Zhifei Biotechnology, where did he go with the money?
02 "Changing horses" Zhirui Investment: a "hidden giant" with a potential management scale of more than 8 billion yuan
02 "Changing horses" Zhirui Investment: a "hidden giant" with a potential management scale of more than 8 billion yuanOn December 31, 2014, Chongqing Zhirui Investment was registered and established, with 10 million yuan invested by Zhifei Biotechnology, accounting for 10%; Jiang Rensheng, a major shareholder, contributed 90 million yuan, accounting for 90%.
Since 2016-2020, Jiang Rensheng and Zhifei Biotechnology have increased the capital of Chongqing Zhirui three times, with amounts of 400 million, 500 million and 1 billion
respectively.
According to the Securities Times, Chongqing Zhirui's current investment amount exceeds 8 billion yuan (this scale is doubtful, and it is more likely to be the scale of assets after the investment is value-added).
However, the report also mentioned that Jiang Rensheng's billions of yuan from several personal holdings and stock dividends of listed companies were invested in this company
.
Due to the high risk and long cycle of new drug research and development, in order to reduce the investment risk of listed companies, the investment in Chongqing Zhirui is mainly
personal investment.
Taking stock of the key investment projects of Zhirui Investment, it is not difficult to find that its investment strategy is very broad and cutting-edge, covering new biological drugs, cell and gene therapy, CRO & CDMO, high-value consumables, etc
.
●
Zhixiang Jintai: Biopharmaceutical R & D and production manufacturer, the main products are monoclonal and bispecific antibodies in the therapeutic areas of self-immune diseases, infectious diseases and tumors, the company currently has 12 products under development, none of which have been commercialized
.
●
Chen'an Biotechnology: Committed to becoming a diabetes bioproducts R&D and production group, the company will focus on biosimilars (such as GLP-1) and innovative drugs in the short term, and launch the Chen'an project of Zhirui Bio Industrial Park in 2019 (estimated total investment of 2.
3 billion yuan) to build a research and development base
for biological products for diabetes treatment.
●
Chongqing Precision Biotechnology: Focusing on the development of CAR-T/NK cell drugs, it has laid out more than ten product pipelines such as leukemia, lymphoma, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, and breast cancer, and has obtained clinical implied licenses
for two new biological drugs of CAR-T cells and five indications.
●
Shanghai Jinsi Biotechnology: a service provider of gene therapy products, can provide one-stop CDMO services for virus vector design, cloning and GMP production, and has a 4,800 square meters dedicated R&D platform (GMP)
for tumor immunotherapy and gene therapy vectors in Shanghai.
●
Chongqing Mayrad Biologics: A comprehensive CRO company mainly engaged in preclinical research and clinical research services (GLP to GCP full chain services)
for chemical drugs, preventive & therapeutic biological products and medical devices.
●
Chongqing Xike Medical: Three types of implantable medical device research and development, production and sales enterprises, focusing on 3D printing and other biological intelligent manufacturing technologies, carrying out cutting-edge scientific and technological research (known directions include orthopedics).
.
.
.
Looking back at the present, the market value of Zhifei Biotechnology has slipped from 360 billion to 153.
7 billion, can it return to the peak? No one knows the answer
.
At the beginning, the logic of investors' interpretation of "widening the moat for Zhifei" was probably just a scene, a high-quality asset wrapped in a large market capitalization listed company, the possibility of value discovery is limited, can only congratulate the major shareholder on having several more "potential IPO asset platforms"
.
03 Zhixiang Jintai, is the first, but by no means the last
03 Zhixiang Jintai, is the first, but by no means the lastAmong the projects invested by Zhirui Investment, the first to usher in the harvest period is Zhixiang Jintai
.
In 2015, Jiang Rensheng established Zhixiang Jintai, and in the last round of external financing in 2021, the company's valuation has reached 6.
6 billion yuan; According to the fundraising plan in the company's materials, it is expected that the market value of Zhixiang Jintai after listing may exceed 15 billion
.
It is worth noting that Zhixiang Jintai currently has no products commercialized, and the pipeline with the fastest clinical progress is IL-17A monoclonal antibody GR1501 injection, and a number of indications have been in the clinical phase III stage; In addition, the IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody GR1802 and RABV dual antibody GR1801 pipelines have also entered the clinical phase II stage, and the later pipeline is not too thin
.
Most of the bearish voices in the market focus on the company's IL-17A monoclonal antibody products, due to the large number of domestic pipelines with the same target and low industry penetration rate (foreign similar products have not met expectations), etc.
, not optimistic about the product prospects
.
The reason why some institutions are willing to take over the market with a valuation of more than 6 billion yuan in 2021, the actual core value of Zhixiang Jintai comes from three points: 1) backed by the endorsement of Zhifei Biotechnology, this investment has sufficient security (major shareholder repurchase ability) and future commercialization will not be stretched; 2) The company's bispecific antibody platform and dual-carrier phage presentation antibody library technology have certain characteristics, which can quickly screen and build common light chain dual antibodies, thereby promoting the development of multiple dual antibody pipelines entering the clinic; 3) The company's focus on self-immunity, infectious disease fields and pipelines are differentiated, and some pipelines are at the forefront of domestic R&D progress
.
From another perspective, it is not difficult to see Zhixiang Jintai's attitude towards drug originality and sensitivity at the commercialization level, one is that the company's pipeline is all independent research and development, and the other is that the company has painfully cut the research and development of GR1405 and GR1401 projects because of the fierce competition pattern of PD-1 drugs, with a total investment of 212 million yuan
.
The value fairness of Zhixiang Jintai's valuation needs to be left to the market to judge; However, for Zhifei Biotechnology, if the market value of Zhixiang Jintai can reach 15 billion yuan after listing, the equity value held by Zhifei Biology will exceed 1 billion
.
However, Zhifei Biotechnology, Zhirui Investment, and Jiang Rensheng spent a lot of effort and resources on the IPO road of Zhixiang Jintai, to give 2 examples:
1.
From 2019 to 2021, the affiliated company almost "dominated" the top five customers of Zhixiang Jintai, the most notable of which was that Zhixiang Jintai transferred the localization of key materials of the new crown vaccine and the authorization of the "CHOZNGS" commercial license to Zhifei Longkema, a subsidiary of Zhifei Biotechnology, and obtained 39 million yuan
.
2.
According to the announcement of Zhifei Biotech on November 11, Mr.
Jiang Rensheng, the major shareholder, pledged 90.
8 million shares; According to the prospectus of Zhixiang Jintai, Jiang Rensheng pledged 43.
77 million shares in Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank to guarantee
the debt of Zhixiang Jintai.
In addition to investment income, according to the relationship between Zhifei Biology and Zhixiang Jintai, the benefits of "reverse empowerment" are very weak for Zhifei, and the biggest beneficiary is still the major shareholder Jiang Rensheng
.
With the current market environment, investors are very keen on every move of listed companies, and do not praise the impact of Zhixiang Jintai on Zhifei after its listing, on the positive side, Zhixiang Jintai may no longer rely on major shareholders and Zhifei blood transfusions in the future, and on the contrary, it may distract the major shareholders from Zhifei's energy
.
Conclusion: The love of the market will disappear, and it will be cherished
.
