50% increase in one and a half months "Garlic Boss" cross-border stocking of dates!

Since mid-July, jujube futures have been on a fast-rising train, with prices hitting new highs.

Production cuts are expected to boost jujube prices

"Agricultural products depend on supply", especially for niche agricultural products

More than three months ago, one of the main red jujube producing areas in China, Aksu, Xinjiang, ushered in low temperature and rain, and the flowering period of the jujube trees was postponed.

According to local jujube farmers, since 2016, the yield of jujube planting in Xinjiang, the main producing area, has been declining.

Under the influence of weather and other factors, the market's expectation of the new season's red jujube production reduction is heating up

Since mid-July, red date futures have changed their dull trend and ushered in a significant rise

Prior to this, the market's focus on the fundamentals of jujube has always been in a situation of "supply exceeding demand"

"Right now, red date growers in Xinjiang generally expect the purchase price of red dates to increase this year

On the futures market, the price of the red date futures far-month contract rose, and the price gap with the near-month price continued to expand

The extent of the production cut is still unknown

As the price of red date futures rose sharply, investors in spot futures were moved by the wind

Huang Liqiang learned from market contacts that some purchasers engaged in cotton and garlic trade purchased red dates and shorted the long-month futures to gain profits from the return of current spreads in the future

However, in his view, cross-border traders do not have their own sales channels, and the purchased dates have not been digested by the terminal market.

"At present, the red dates purchased by spot merchants are mainly first- and second-level dates that are eligible for futures delivery.

In fact, the reduction in red jujube production is still unknown

"The reduction in production is relatively certain, but the probability is not as high as 40% of market rumors

"From the current situation, the reduction in production in Aksu, the main red date producing area in Xinjiang, is about 25%, and the reduction in Kashgar is about 15%.

According to analysts, because the jujube tree has an infinite inflorescence, the jujube tree can bloom and bear fruit again after more than usual fruit drop occurs in early July
.
"The three crops of flowers can be strengthened after fertilization, watering and other field management can make up for some of the reduced yields
.
Recently, some jujube farmers reported that the three crops of flowers had an ideal fruit setting, and there was no fruit drop caused by the extreme weather at the end of July
.
" Wang Jun said.

.

There are risks behind the spreads

In the spot market, the current price of red dates remains at 10,000 yuan/ton to -10,500 yuan/ton, and the trend is relatively stable
.

In terms of market transactions, take Guangzhou Ruyifang, the largest sales area of ​​red dates, as an example.
According to reports, the current daily volume of goods in this place is about 2-3 vehicles, which is only about 30% of the same period in previous years
.

In terms of futures, the current red date futures 2109-2201 contract spread is above 4405 yuan/ton
.

"The large current price difference in the market indicates that the price of red jujube futures is seriously overvalued
.
Not only that, because the raw materials of old dates meet the delivery requirements, and the market raw material inventory is more than 200,000 tons, the price of long-month futures will attract owners.
On the other hand, due to the spot price of red dates, it is estimated that 100,000 tons of red dates processed from old dates will be delivered in the new season.
There is no significant increase, which will inhibit the purchase of high-priced raw materials by companies that do not have the ability to deliver futures.
The open-scale prices of raw materials are difficult to maintain at a high level.
Therefore, the new season contract will face double selling pressure of the new season raw materials and the old season raw materials
.
" Huang Liqiang said
.

The possibility of Chen Zao's registration of warehouse receipts is an uncertain factor
.
It is understood that the standard warehouse receipts for red dates will be accepted for registration on November 1, Year N, and the warehouse receipts will be valid until the last trading day in September of Year N+1 (including that day)
.
It should be noted that red dates with a production date before November 1 cannot be registered after November 1 of the current year (including that date)
.
The warehouse receipt received under the 09 contract must be cancelled at the end of the month and become a spot.
It is not allowed to change the carton to modify the production date and then register a new warehouse receipt.
This does not comply with the provisions of the Food Safety Law
.
However, if the date has not been processed, it can be stored in November for production and processing, and the warehouse receipt is registered
.

Dong Tiantian predicts that the future price of red dates for new crops will most likely run between 1,3000-15,000 yuan/ton, and the focus of future attention will gradually fall on topics such as support for the market’s purchase policy and demand recovery
.
She reminded that supply-driven agricultural and sideline product prices are often prone to overcorrection, and futures investors need to strengthen risk management of their positions
.