380,000 pig farms, 440 million pigs, 30 million tons of pork, my country’s live pigs

 　　As we all know, the price of live pigs in the first half of 2021 has undergone earth-shaking changes, from 18 yuan a catty at the beginning of the year, all the way down to a minimum of 6 yuan a catty, although the industry generally believes that the decline in pig prices is due to poor pork consumption and pig raising.
The reason why the households are obese, but in fact the most important reason is that there are too many pigs
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The data shows that there are 376,500 existing pig-raising companies in China, and 26,000 were added in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 31%
.
In terms of the number of live pigs, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that at the end of June, the number of live pigs in China was 439.
11 million, close to 440 million, an increase of 99.
15 million over the same period in 2020; the number of breeding sows was 45.
64 million, compared with There was an increase of 9.
34 million heads in the same period last year
.
In terms of pork production, China’s pork production totaled 27.
15 million tons in the first half of 2021.
China imported 2.
3 million tons of frozen pork from January to June.
In addition, there were hundreds of tons of imported frozen meat that were backlogged in cold storage last year.
In the first half of this year, China's pork supply exceeded 30 million tons
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　It has been three years since African swine fever was introduced to China in August 2018
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　When the goals and tasks established in the "Three-Year Action Plan" were completed ahead of schedule, on August 6, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other six ministries issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Pig Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), reiterating 95 "Pork self-sufficiency rate" of about %
.
The "Opinions" also put forward the requirements of "a long-term support policy for stabilizing pig production" and "establishing a counter-cyclical control mechanism for pig production"
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On July 28, the executive meeting of the State Council determined measures to stabilize the production capacity of live pigs, promoted the supply and price stability, and strengthened the ability to guarantee safe pork supply
.
On July 30, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to make arrangements for economic work in the second half of the year, again emphasizing the stability of pig production
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　On July 29, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a ministerial executive meeting and pointed out that with the recovery of live pig production capacity and the fall in pig prices, it is necessary to promptly shift the focus of work to consolidating achievements and alleviating "pig cycle" fluctuations, and exploring the establishment of a long-term effect for stable production development.
Mechanism
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　These meetings and government documents convey a signal that when the production capacity of pigs has returned to normal levels, the government is working hard to reduce its dependence on imported pork, while focusing on stable and long-term support policies, and more market-oriented ways to ease the situation.
"Pig cycle" to avoid big fluctuations in pig prices
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Profound changes in the pig industryZ2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Over the past three years, China's pig industry has undergone tremendous changes
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The most obvious change is the acceleration of the scale-up process
.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the scale-up rate of pig breeding will reach about 57% in 2020, an increase of 4 percentage points from 2019 and a rate of 2 percentage points higher than normal
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Another example is the rapid expansion of swine giants
.
Before the outbreak of African Swine Fever, the only pig-raising giants that produced 10 million pigs a year were Wen's and Muyuan
.
By this year, according to the assessment of the capacity expansion of major pig raising groups, the number of pig raising giants of this magnitude will reach 4-5
.
Among them, Muyuan is expected to exceed 40 million
.
In addition, the number of pigs raising 1 million pigs per year will exceed 10, more than double the number before the outbreak
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The expansion of large-scale breeding groups and the gradual withdrawal of small and medium-sized farmers were originally a long-term trend, but the African swine fever epidemic has accelerated this trend
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Lin Guofa, research director of Breck·Agricultural Commodity Purchasing Network, told reporters that the aging of the labor force in rural areas and the new generation are unwilling to inherit their father’s business, coupled with biosafety prevention and control, has led to higher entry barriers for the pig industry.
It is not conducive to small and medium retail investors fighting alone
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At the same time, in the past three years, the two breeding modes of "company + farmer" and self-reproduction and self-raising, which have always existed in China's pig industry, have also withstood the test
.
Due to the high requirements of bio-safety prevention and control on pig farm hardware and daily management, enterprises that promote integrated breeding have seen significant expansion in production capacity
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In terms of pig production capacity layout, while continuing the production capacity layout after 2015, the pig farming giant also increased the production capacity layout in the southwest and northwest regions based on the consideration of local environmental carrying capacity
.
The zoning prevention and control of major animal diseases implemented nationwide on May 1 this year, as well as the national division of the main pig producing areas and main sales areas, and the determination of the pork self-sufficiency rate target not only corrected the previous policy of pig-free counties/cities, but also To a certain extent, it balances the distribution of live pig production capacity
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters that the importance of pig farms on pig safety, both in awareness and ability, has been significantly improved due to the epidemic
.
The circulation of live pig products has rapidly changed from adjusted pigs to adjusted meat, and the output of cold fresh meat has increased rapidly
.
In addition, the supply of meat such as poultry increased, and the optimization of the meat consumption structure superimposed on the optimization of the meat consumption structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of pork in the overall meat consumption structure and a change in the equilibrium point of pork supply and demand
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Live pig production capacity: excess or balanceZ2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The current "pig cycle" was triggered by African swine fever and superimposed on the new crown pneumonia epidemic, resulting in "an unprecedented reduction in production capacity and an unprecedented increase in prices
.
" According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, when the production capacity is low, the stock of reproductive sows and pigs has decreased by about 40% year-on-year
.
In the fourth week of February 2020, pork prices increased by 165% year-on-year
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　It is the unprecedented high pig price that has led Chinese pork trading companies to buy meat globally, triggering a surge in imports year-on-year and an increase in import dependence
.
At the same time, the pig breeding model has also changed, and slaughter has begun to appear
.
Lin Guofa said that in the first three quarters of 2020, when the production capacity of pigs has not recovered significantly, the slaughter of pigs is conducive to increasing the supply of pork
.
By 2021, the production capacity of live pigs will rebound rapidly.
This model has triggered a decline in pig prices that has lasted for more than 20 weeks since February this year
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At the same time, based on the current plunge in pig prices, Lin Guofa believes that it is not appropriate to directly judge the overcapacity of live pigs
.
Judging from the current situation, the production capacity of live pigs is more likely to be in a balanced state
.
With the continuous release of the production capacity of large-scale breeding enterprises, there is a high probability of overcapacity of live pigs in the second half of the year, and the industry has entered a stage of fighting efficiency and fighting costs
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Out of the importance of the surge in pork imports, in September 2019, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Stabilizing Live Pig Production and Promoting Transformation and Upgrading", and for the first time proposed the "pork self-sufficiency rate" indicator and determined that "maintain at around 95%.
" Goal
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In the same vein, the "Opinions" issued by six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on August 6 clearly set out the industry development goals for 5-10 years, including maintaining the self-sufficiency rate of pork at around 95%
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Lin Guofa said that if 95% of the pork self-sufficiency rate is converted into pork and live pigs, it means that the government hopes to control the import volume of pork to 2.
5 million to 3 million tons per year, or 650 million to 700 million pigs for slaughter each year.
The normal level in 2015-2018
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Promote the "sustainable and healthy" development of the pig industryZ2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The "Opinions" focus on promoting the "sustainable and healthy" development of the pig industry
.
Clearly put forward a long-term support policy for stabilizing pig production
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The industry generally believes that the cyclical fluctuation of pig prices is a normal economic phenomenon in the market economy, and the "pig cycle" cannot disappear, but the fluctuation range can only be reduced
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The "Opinions" also proposed to establish a counter-cyclical control mechanism with the stock of reproductive sows as the core indicator, improve and strengthen control policies and measures, and smooth out fluctuations in the "pig cycle"
.
Zhu Zengyong said that the market price of pork is mainly affected by the law of market supply and demand
.
Diseases, population and consumption structure, environmental protection regulations, trade, scale level and other factors will affect the fluctuation range and cycle time of the "pig cycle"
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　He mentioned that in the past, more cyclical support policies were introduced than when pig prices rose.
Although they helped to restore production capacity, they also led to irrational replenishment and expansion, which brought risks to overcapacity in the next cycle
.
The downward cycle of pig prices requires more moderate intervention in the basic production capacity of live pigs, with counter-cyclical production regulation as the mainstay, supplemented by short-term government reserve meat purchases and storage, to reduce the cyclical fluctuations of live pig production capacity, and to prevent excessive reduction in live pig production capacity due to the speed and range.
, There is a risk that the price of pigs will rise too quickly
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Lin Guofa suggested that the agricultural authorities should publish industry-related data in a timely manner to reduce market suspicion
.
At the same time, the pig farming giants should make full use of the hedging of pig futures to avoid being forced to phase out a large number of production capacity when the pig price is bearish, which will cause the pig price to rise in the later period
.
In the bull market of pig prices, by selling futures to lock in profits in advance to speed up the increase in production capacity, this is conducive to the long-term planning of enterprises
.
Z2f China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry