37 recent overview and future trend analysis

Wenshan, Yunnan Province, the main production area of "37", has suffered a serious drought once in a hundred years, which has a serious impact on the growth of "37" The output of "37" is difficult to increase this year and next year, and it will remain in short supply As soon as the news came out, it attracted the attention of all the market merchants and drug manufacturers all over the country They rushed to the production area to buy the goods, which resulted in a sharp rise in the price of 37, which was in short supply and demand Taking 120 heads as an example, the price rose from yuan per kilogram before the year to more than 500 yuan per kilogram at the peak As the price rises too fast and the range is too large in a short period of time, the market merchants and drug manufacturers have stopped their purchase plans and take a wait-and-see attitude And businesses in the early hands of low-cost goods have a lot of profits, are willing to actively sell to achieve benefits In addition, part of the recent rainfall in the dry area has a certain impact on the market sentiment, which causes the current price correction of 37 How much is the national inventory at present? What's the extent of the disaster? What is the relationship between supply and demand? In what direction will the future market develop? It has become a topic of great concern to the current market businesses and drug manufacturers Now I will analyze the personal investigation and understanding: 1 The disaster situation of March 7th and the yield in 2010, due to the unprecedented drought in the production area, have a serious impact on the growth of thirty-seven seedlings in the field, not only the emergence rate is reduced, but also the growth of thirty-seven in the field is smaller than the previous years In recent years, part of the rainfall in Wenshan, Yunnan, the main producing area of Sanqi, has been effectively alleviated, but it has been difficult to recover the affected seedlings Even though Sanqi can keep its life, its size is smaller and thinner, and its per mu output will be greatly reduced, which will directly affect the total output of this year's Sanqi According to various statistics and in-depth investigation of major planting areas, the area of 37 that can be excavated in 2010 will not exceed 20000 mu Due to the significant reduction of the yield per mu, the total output of optimist should be between 3000 tons and 3500 tons this year 2 The amount of Panax notoginseng is a common variety of Chinese medicinal materials, and the sales volume is increasing year by year Especially, Panax notoginseng extract Xueshuantong and Xuesaitong are the key to treat cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases It has a very significant effect on the treatment and prevention of cardio cerebrovascular and myocardial infarction, blood pressure reduction and hemostasis There are more than 1300 pharmaceutical manufacturers with Panax notoginseng as raw materials, including 16 manufacturers of Xueshuantong and Xuesaitong injection, and thousands of manufacturers of tablets, such as Danshen tablets, Danshen dropping pills, Hypotensive Tablets and hemostatic tablets, etc the consumption of these manufacturers in the past three or seven years is less than dozens of tons, more than hundreds of tons, even thousands of tons The sales volume of prescription Chinese Herbal Pieces in the hospital is expanding every year In addition, a considerable part of them are exported to Hong Kong, Taiwan and some countries in Southeast Asia every year With the aging of China's population and the emergence of some "rich diseases" caused by the good living conditions and excessive nutrition, the use of drugs for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is increasing year by year, and the sales volume of Sanqi is also increasing year by year Now, the sales volume of Sanqi should be 7000-8000 tons every year 3 At present, the total stock of Panax notoginseng is about 400 tons in the hands of traders and drug farmers in Wenshan production area The total stock of Panax notoginseng in the national drug markets will not exceed 400 tons In addition, the surplus of Panax notoginseng in the hands of a large household will not exceed 1500 tons At present, the inventory of the whole country is about 2300 tons, while the inventory of Wenshan production area alone is more than 1800 tons in the same period of last year The market and merchants all over the country have a larger stock of goods This figure is the result of many investigations and hard statistics in-depth production areas and drug markets The error is small and has a high reference value IV high price is hard to solve the contradiction between supply and demand Under the high price, the sales volume of Panax notoginseng will be reduced, but it will mainly reduce the consumption of pieces of Decoction in hospitals and some small pharmaceutical factories and drugs supplemented by Panax notoginseng raw materials The consumption of large pharmaceutical factories and pharmaceutical manufacturers mainly using Panax notoginseng raw materials will not be reduced, and the price will have little impact on them The main varieties of these large and famous manufacturers are generally among the first choice drugs in pharmacies and hospitals nationwide, occupying The first-line market has a direct impact on the market share and survival of such drugs in China In addition, the country has included many such drugs in the scope of medical insurance, which has further increased the sales of such drugs According to the analysis of the current situation, under the high price, the annual sales volume of Sanqi will be reduced by about 20% and 1500 tons Even if we reduce 1500 tons, we still need to use 6500 tons and 37 tons At present, the national inventory is only a drop in the bucket With more than 2300 tons of inventory, there is a gap of more than 4000 tons The contradiction between market supply and demand is very obvious and serious 5 Market analysis after March 7th: the recent fall in the price of March 7th is just a short-term correction When the market adapts to the price, the supply of goods in various markets and places of origin in the country will be further reduced March 7th will return to the high price and create a new record of high price.