21 Financial conjectures in 2004: possible changes and events

Introduction: the food risk fund started in the 1990s before the lunar new year, and Beijing Morning Post still needs to predict the trend of China's economy in the new year For the strategic development pattern of China's economy in 2004, it has become a consensus that GDP (GDP) will not grow at less than 7% Therefore, our forecast focuses on major changes and events that may occur in important industries such as finance, insurance, foreign trade, telecommunications, it, home appliances, energy, etc., which is also the main reporting direction of the financial news of Beijing Morning Post in 2004 Does v6m export tax rebate restrain export growth? Since January 1 this year, the average level of China's export tax rebate rate will be reduced by 3 percentage points, which is a "good medicine" for reducing the financial burden of the central government and the pressure of RMB appreciation However, in the short term, the reduction of export tax rebate rate will have a restraining effect on export growth Every 1% reduction in the export tax rebate rate is equivalent to an increase of about 1% in the export cost of general trade, and the export growth rate will decrease by 4.9% It has a decisive impact on exporters who compete on price and are used to operating at a low profit It is estimated that the effect of the reduction of the export tax rebate rate on China's exports may be apparent in the second half of 2004, and the export growth rate is expected to decrease from 22.3% in 2002 to 15% this year Is v6m textile subject to special protection sanctions? This year, special insurance (transitional safeguard mechanism for specific products) will become the main way for foreign manufacturing enterprises to trade barriers with China Especially in the field of textiles V6m is the last year of textile quota implementation, and is most likely to encounter special protection sanctions Up to now, the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, Canada, India, etc have made domestic legislation in accordance with China's commitments on textile restrictions V6m in addition, the United States recently began to force the promotion of SA8000 standard certification, linking labor rights with orders Restricted by this is mainly labor-intensive products, such as clothing, shoemaking, chemical raw materials, textiles and so on V6m expects that 85% of Chinese manufacturing enterprises will suffer from the direct or indirect negative impact caused by the implementation of SA8000 standard in 2004 V6m green barriers to agricultural exports? In v6m 2004, the EU will officially ban the sale of 320 pesticides in the EU, including more than 60 pesticide products involving China The EU ban will constitute a barrier to the export of various agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables to the EU V6m Japan has increased the number of rice residue detection projects imported from China from 56 to 104 The European Union has also increased the number of agricultural residue testing items in China from 29 to 62, while Japan has as many as 77 V6m predicts that this year's green barriers alone may adversely affect China's exports of more than $7 billion Is the RMB exchange rate policy of v6m slightly adjusted? The issue of RMB exchange rate in v6m will continue to be the focus A number of top investment banks agreed that the RMB exchange rate will be slightly adjusted this year, and the exchange rate formation mechanism will be changed HSBC believes that in June this year, the RMB exchange rate will increase by several percentage points China will float the yuan by 2.5% by the end of March, Goldman said Li Yang, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said, "the central bank must consider adjusting the exchange rate after improving the RMB formation mechanism, so it is impossible to adjust the benchmark exchange rate this year In the future, the central bank is most likely to expand the exchange rate fluctuation space first, but at most it will be 3% " V6m China Construction Bank issued the first shot to list state-owned banks? The listing project of the four state-owned commercial banks of v6m was officially launched this year CCB is likely to become the first state-owned commercial bank to be listed It will issue shares on the Hong Kong market by the end of 2004 and raise about 6 billion US dollars It is reported that the initial design of "China Construction Bank Co., Ltd." in 2004 is generally recognized as the first listed company, but the IPO is probably not all of its commercial bank assets, but the assets and business of five high-quality branches in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Ningbo, Jiangsu and Suzhou At present, several investment banks, including Citigroup, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Germany and Merrill Lynch, are bidding fiercely for v6m Is v6m auto finance company born in this year? The monopoly of banks in v6m auto loan market will be completely broken this year SAIC General Motors Finance Co., Ltd., Toyota Motor Finance (China) Co., Ltd and Volkswagen Finance (China) Co., Ltd - three "foreign car loans" have obtained the "quasi birth certificate" of the CBRC After half a year's preparation period, each of them will open V6m auto finance company usually provides consumers with one-stop services related to auto sales, such as product consultation, signing car purchase contract, parts supply, maintenance, etc., and can adopt more flexible interest rate policies such as discount loan Therefore, it will pose a strong challenge to bank car loans Does the v6m appliance capital "besiege the city" phenomenon aggravate? In the year of v6m 2003, the "car making movement" of home appliance industry became popular, such as Chunlan, Midea, Oakes and greenkor This year, the "players" who have already obtained the "tickets" will start to compete, forming a real trend of "flight" of household appliance capital Some people in v6m want to escape and others want to rush in Despite people's shouting that the profits of home appliance industry are getting thinner, there are still many "laymen" who have come into this highly competitive industry: Motorola, Dell, Hyundai, Lenovo Telecom companies and 1t companies have been "testing the water" one after another What attracts them is the huge business opportunity of the integration of digital TV and 3C Next year, these brands of TVs will appear in more people's living rooms Is v6m digital TV officially industrialized? Last year, the State Administration of radio, film and television (SARFT) set a strategic timetable for national digital TV In 2004, it was determined to be the year of digitalization and industrialization, with a trillion yuan industry "golden light" It can be imagined that "digital TV" will become the "main card" of various mainstream color TV enterprises this year However, the technology and standards of v6m are still two major problems that digital TV will encounter in 2004, which will have a considerable impact on the digital TV market, and may also become a factor to change the game pattern of color TV giants More and more anti-dumping of v6m home appliances? V6m anti-dumping is a heavy topic in China's home appliance industry in 2003, but the real result will be announced in 2004 On April 12 this year, the U.S Department of Commerce will make a final decision on the dumping case of China's color TV sets If the previous dumping margin remains unchanged, China's limited color TV sets with large screen display tubes of more than 21 inches will not be able to reach the U.S market At the same time, in 2004, the anti-dumping of China's home appliances may be more and more, and the types may also be expanded from color TV to other home appliances The export situation of China's home appliance industry is not optimistic V6m automobile industry enters into adjustment period? In 2004, the investment concentration of v6m automobile industry will be strengthened on the basis of 2003 The medium and high-end automobile industry may become the focus of investment next year Foreign capital and state-owned capital in the industry will "play" the main driving force of investment In summary, in 2004, the automobile industry is still a year to "laugh" However, v6m is different from 2002 and 2003 Since 2004, some new problems caused by the rapid development of the industry will appear and form pressure After 2004, the domestic automobile manufacturing industry will gradually enter an adjustment period, and the emergence of such an adjustment period seems inevitable V6m new China life takes the lead in A-share listing? In the year of v6m 2003, PICC and China Life Insurance were successfully listed overseas, which opened the curtain for insurance industry to actively enter the capital market It can be predicted that 2004 will be another "listing financing year" for insurers Ping An insurance, which is actively preparing for listing in Hong Kong, is expected to realize its overseas listing dream in the first half of the year At present, seven Chinese insurance companies have completed the guidance period for listing in the mainland It is expected that there will not be too much suspense for insurance companies to appear in the A-share market this year, and Xinhua Life Insurance Co., Ltd has the highest voice to win the first chance V6m insurance industry trial mixed operation? V6m group will try mixed operation at the beginning of this year Although it is still far away for insurance companies to realize the mixed operation of their insurance business, banking and securities business, it is feasible to carry out the quasi mixed operation of property and life insurance under the framework of group companies Moreover, the newly revised commercial bank law also leaves a lot of imagination space for its mixed operation Will v6m oil futures return to market this year? The prediction of v6m shows that with the further expansion of domestic oil supply and demand gap, China's dependence on international crude oil market will be as high as 35% in 2004 For this purpose, on the one hand, the pace of establishing a national strategic oil reserve base in China will be accelerated At the beginning of this year, the four strategic oil reserve bases in East China are expected to obtain the "quasi birth certificate" At the same time, domestic calls for the introduction of crude oil futures will be echoed this year, and the introduction of fuel oil futures will become a breakthrough to open the door of the oil futures market On the other hand, China's oil giants will intensify their enclosure at home and abroad to obtain oil and gas V6m nuclear power unit on a large scale? With the sound of power shortage, the pace of nuclear power is approaching At present, the national development and Reform Commission has defined the "long-term plan" for nuclear power According to the plan, from this year on, China will approve the construction of at least two million nuclear power units every year This means that China will build a "Daya Bay" every year in the next 16 years At present, the "nuclear power action" in Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guangdong and other provinces is in full swing V6m 3G license issued at the end of the year? V6m China's third generation mobile phone (3G mobile phone) license will be issued at the end of 2004 In the third quarter of this year, after the second phase of testing of G equipment organized by the state for Chinese and foreign telecom companies, licenses will be issued This is a reasonable time to ensure that China 3G network in 2005, 2006 commercial, 2008 Olympic Games have mature applications V6m cut the call fee on May 17? V6m mobile phone charges will be adjusted in a large scale on May 17 or even earlier, and the high charges of 0.4 yuan / minute mobile phone will go down However, one-way charging is unlikely After the short messages of PHS and mobile phones are exchanged in March, the dual-mode PHS will come out, and the national roaming of PHS is just around the corner, which provides the basic conditions for one-way charging or price war of phone charges Is v6m connected to the mainland via Huangdao? V6m China Unicom will become the first 3G Network Builder in China, and the test has been carried out By the end of the year, it only needs to upgrade the CDMA1X network in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities to meet the application requirements of 3G The company is likely to launch the previously interrupted "Sino foreign" cooperation mode this year, and Li Ka Shing's and Huang Telecom are likely to enter the mainland through Unicom Is v6m Netcom going on the market as a whole this summer? In the summer of this year, China Netcom will unify its three holding companies, South, North and international, into a joint-stock company and list them overseas With the Global Telecom "climate" warming, this Japanese NTT structure will give them a surprise The IPO (initial public offering) of China Netcom will surpass that of China Telecom, estimated at about $2 billion How will China Mobile change its commander this year? V6m China Mobile may change its commander this year, and its president Zhang Li