2017 Soybean meal, vegetable meal, cotton meal, corn, fishmeal market summary and 2018 outlook.

OA show ('918 '); in 2017, the market of feed raw materials will come to an endLooking back on the first half of 2017, almost all feed raw materials are in a difficult place, and only in the second half of 2017 did they make a breakthrough, especially our fish meal market, which immediately stirred the wind and cloud in the Jianghu and raised the prices one after anotherAmong them, vegetable protein raw materials, soybean meal and vegetable cottonseed meal are difficult to reproduce the dazzling scene of last year, and the market situation of this year's three meal market is in a volatile and weak trend2017 is the second year for China's corn to cooperate with the agricultural supply side reformIn terms of supply, the corn planting area continues to decline, while the output declinesIn terms of demand, it shows a slow growth trend, in which the demand for deep processing is eye-catching; in terms of spot goods, it shows a significant downward movement of the center of gravityHowever, since October, the market of fishmeal has staged a real version of "Jedi rebound", which is quite fierce, showing a "blowout rise" as a whole, with an increase of up to 3500 yuan / ton in a monthPHM soybean meal fell to the second lowest price in 10 yearsAccording to statistics, the average price of the main soybean meal producing areas in 2017 was 2984 yuan / ton, down 1.72% year-on-year, ranking the second lowest price in the past decadeThe first low price was 2015, with an annual average price of 2826 yuan / tonThe highest price is in January, the monthly average price is 3366 yuan / ton, the lowest is in June, and the monthly average price is 2745 yuan / tonThe market track of the whole year is basically the same as that of 2015From the beginning of the year to June, the market continued to show a downward trendFrom July to October, the market recovered in shock, but still operated at a low price of 2800-2900 yuan / tonPHM continued to oversupply soybean meal in 2017As of October, the raw materials purchased by soybean crushing enterprises were at a high levelAlthough the crushing profits of oil plants were not good, and even the spot crushing continued to lose money, they still maintained a high operating rate, resulting in abundant soybean meal supply However, the overall performance of the terminal breeding industry was poor, and the demand for soybean meal was not significantly increased, The single-sided soybean meal trade is difficult, and futures hedging is favored by more people In addition, soybean meal options are listed to avoid market risks After the continuous low price operation, we expect that the soybean meal market price is expected to return to rise moderately and rationally in 2018 After "domineering" PHM rapeseed meal was transferred to stable PHM, according to statistical data, the average annual ex warehouse price of feed rapeseed meal in China's main production areas in 2017 was 2407 yuan / ton, up 3.30% year on year This year's domestic rapeseed meal spot market has a high starting point, but it has come out of a wave of market trends very similar to 2015 In 2018, the annual average outbound price of feed rapeseed meal in China's main production areas is expected to be about 2421 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.62% year on year, and the annual monthly average operating range may be maintained at 2290-2530 yuan / ton PHM we expect that the soybean meal market will return to the rise moderately and rationally in 2018, so the domestic rapeseed meal spot market is also likely to rise moderately Combined with its own factors, we believe that the performance strength and space of the rapeseed meal market in 2018 will be weaker than that of the soybean meal market According to the deduction data of China feed industry information network, the annual average price of Chinese rapeseed meal in 2018 is slightly higher than that in 2017 PHM PHM cottonseed meal showed cautious performance in 18 years In 2017, the average annual delivery price of spot cottonseed meal in China's main production areas was 2658 yuan / ton, up 2.89% year on year In the first half of 2017, the market of cottonseed meal in China slowed down cautiously; by June, the spot market of domestic cottonseed meal had declined, but the monthly average price of rapeseed meal fell less than that of cottonseed meal, and the price difference between the two fell below 200 yuan / ton From July to September, the spot price of domestic vegetable cottonseed meal increased first and then decreased, and the price difference between the two increased to 190-250 yuan / ton In October, the spot price of domestic vegetable meal followed the trend of soybean meal moderately, and the price difference between the two narrowed to below 150 yuan / ton again, which was the low point of the year up to now In the second year of the PHM corn revolution, the average price of the main corn producing areas of PHM in this year was 1674 yuan / ton, down 152 yuan / ton, or 9.09%, compared with 1826 yuan / ton of the average price of the main corn producing areas in 2016 This year's trend track is just the opposite of 2016, and the operation range is significantly reduced In the first half of the track of continuous downward movement, the average price in February 2017 became the lowest price in the year of 1556 yuan / ton, and then it moved up in the periodic interval, and the average price in July 2017 was the highest price during the period of 1741 yuan / ton In 2018, the annual average price of feed corn in China's main production areas was 1725.97 yuan / ton, up 3.10% year on year From the perspective of trend, prices in January March are generally low, April August is a slow rise, and September December is a seasonal decline In 2017, the price of fish meal for PHM "Jedi rebirth" PHM fell first and then rose At the beginning of January, the price began to fall from the annual high of 11800-12000 yuan / ton At the beginning of October, the price fell to 10200-10500 yuan / ton Fortunately, good news came again The price of fish meal rebounded in mid October At the time of closing, the price of fish meal rose to 13500-14000 yuan / ton It seems that the price of super steam fish meal in Peru rose to 14200 yuan / ton in 2016, which proves that the market cycle of the sudden rise must follow the sharp fall Although the fish meal market rose briefly in March and August respectively, it was a flash in the pan and buried in the later rolling water PHM's reasons for this year's weak downward trend of fish meal market are complex The main factors are summarized as follows: 1 Demand for fish meal is the king; 2 In the first half of 2017, Peru published a 280 In the context of sluggish demand, the quota of ten thousand tons is relatively empty The neutral quota also becomes the straw that kills the camel Third, feed enterprises are more and more rational in the game with Fishmeal traders Fourth, domestic and miscellaneous fishmeal continue to play a complementary role PHM fish meal "Jedi rebirth" factor is: the central and northern Peru "again and again" delayed the release date of the quota, and finally in the middle and late November Peru Production Department officially released the central and northern fishing quota of 1.49 million tons, then the fish meal market started to rise in price By the end of November, with the central and northern Peru fishing "Failed to finish", and immediately announced a 10-day total ban on fishing after the trial, and the price of super steam fish meal in Peru continued to soar PHM 2018 Outlook: it is expected that the market will present a situation of reduced supply and moderate increase in demand in 2018, and the overall market price is higher than that in 2017 PHM PHM is based on the fact that feedstuff materials are generally stagnant this year, which benefits the Feedstuff Factory despite the loss of traders This year, the income of most feed enterprises has declined, mainly due to the reduction of feed sales In the second half of the year, the price of raw materials rose again, the cost price increased, and feed enterprises raised their prices one after another PHM summary: raw materials are still these raw materials, manufacturers are still those manufacturers, but the market has changed In 2018, whether you are looking forward or hesitating, you are already on your way PHM by Dan Dan