2013 No.1 document of the Central Committee is expected to focus on the agricultural management system

Introduction: next year's economic policy is of concern, and the No 1 document of the Central Committee also raises speculation Experts said that in 2013, the first document of the Central Committee is expected to focus on the agricultural operation system The basic spirit of the policy should be to innovate and develop the production and operation forms such as professional large-scale households, family farms, professional cooperatives and agricultural industrialization on the basis of insisting on farmers as the main body of agricultural production and operation However, industrial and commercial enterprises are not encouraged to lease large-scale and long-term farmers' land It is understood that the research work has started in the middle of this year, which will be the tenth consecutive year of the central No 1 document focusing on "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" Agricultural investment strategy in 2013: first "poultry" and then "pig" Category: Industry Research Institution: researcher of Guolian Securities Co., Ltd.: Zhou Jigeng date: 2012-12-04 The power of agricultural product price increase is still sufficient, and this trend will be maintained in the future From a long-term perspective, it is a long-term and inevitable trend that population growth, farmers' demands for higher living standards, urbanization and other factors lead to the rise of agricultural product prices In addition, the uncertainty of natural disasters such as weather is the driving factor to increase the price fluctuation of agricultural products Therefore, we expect that the price rise of agricultural products will remain this trend in the future Under the background of rigid cultivated land area, the only way to solve this problem is to increase the per mu yield Structural adjustment brings new development opportunities for feed enterprises In the past 12 years, the high cost of feed raw materials has further highlighted the scale advantages, procurement advantages, capital advantages and technical advantages of large-scale enterprises Large enterprises have made full use of the opportunity of industry integration to develop themselves Small enterprises are at a disadvantage in these aspects In the process of cost rise, profits gradually decline and market share is gradually occupied by large-scale enterprises The opportunity of industry integration and the proportion of large-scale enterprises will increase We think it will still be a trend in the future, so we think the stable growth of large-scale enterprises can be sustained In 13 years, the performance of birds will be earlier than that of pigs Due to the large number of live pigs on hand, it is expected that the price of live pigs will pick up in the fourth quarter driven by demand, but the range is limited In order to truly rebound or reverse the trend, we need to wait until the industry wide losses and the elimination of sows on hand increase, or diseases lead to the decline of the stock According to the cycle of pig breeding, we don't expect a real rebound until the second half of next year At present, the stock of chickens and ducks is relatively small Recently, the market of chickens and ducks is gradually picking up, and after the end of autumn harvest, the enthusiasm of breeding households to make up the stock is expected to improve This year's long-term loss has led to the increase of the withdrawal of breeding poultry and duck breeding, and the focus on the performance of birds In 2013, our overall investment strategy is "poultry first, then pigs, and feed clearance" Focusing on the periodicity of agricultural sub industries, the investment will focus on the upstream and downstream sub industries related to aquaculture, and the band operation configuration will be carried out according to the trend of supply and demand and price Key recommended companies: Tang Renshen (002567) of feed processing industry, Huaying agriculture (002321) of livestock breeding and Tiankang Biology (002100) of animal protection biological products Huaying Agriculture: the performance has accelerated to decline, but it is still not optimistic in the fourth quarter Huaying agriculture 002321 Research Institute: Tianxiang Investment Analyst: Qiu Yanying date of writing: October 22, 2012 From January to September 2012, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year; an operating profit loss of 36 million yuan, compared with a profit of 64 million yuan in the same period of 2011; a net profit loss of 30 million yuan attributable to the owner of the parent company, compared with a profit of 70 million yuan in the same period of 2011; diluted earnings per share of -0.10 yuan From July to September 2012, the company achieved an operating revenue of 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% The owner's net profit attributable to the parent company was 51 million yuan, while the profit of the same period in 2011 was 37 million yuan; diluted earnings per share was -0.17 yuan In the third quarter, single quarter performance accelerated to decline, and the fourth quarter is still not optimistic The company is the largest Cherry Valley Duck one-stop service enterprise in China, which integrates breeding, breeding, slaughtering and processing During the reporting period, affected by the decline of economic growth at home and abroad, the decline of CPI and the overcapacity of the aquaculture industry, the industry as a whole was still in a disadvantageous and unbalanced situation, with surplus supply and weak demand The industry chain of meat duck and chicken showed a difficult profit situation since 2006, with quarterly performance declining, especially in the third quarter, accelerating the decline On the one hand, the same as 2011 On the other hand, due to the high base number of the period, the industry's prosperity worsened, which was reflected in the accelerated decline of duck seedling prices (45% year-on-year decline in the first quarter, 49% year-on-year decline in the second quarter and 70% year-on-year decline in the third quarter) as the main profit source of the company, while the prices of corn, soybean meal and wheat rose continuously quarter by quarter in the reporting period The cost rose and the price of main products fell The gross profit margin fell to - 0.8% in the third quarter, a single quarter low since the listing Australia boutique mall in the fourth quarter, theoretically speaking, there are many festivals and peak consumption season, the demand for meat and poultry products will be boosted to some extent, and the price of meat and poultry may rebound to some extent, but its rebound behavior is mainly driven by seasonal factors rather than fundamental reversal, the industry as a whole is still in a downward cycle, and the industry situation in the fourth quarter is still not optimistic The industry situation in 2013 may be more optimistic than that in 2012, and the company will benefit from the improvement of the industry In the cycle, the company needs to pay attention to and observe the industry boom changes For the aquaculture industry boom judgment, we think 2013 is better than 2012 The reason for the judgment is mainly based on the cyclical law of the previous aquaculture market, and the boom will reverse in the second half of 2013; the company will benefit from the improvement of the industry boom, and the degree of benefit depends on the improvement of the industry Profit forecast and investment rating The industry downturn continues to exceed expectations We lowered the company's earnings forecast It is expected that the company's earnings per share in 2012, 2013 and 2014 will be 0.02 yuan, 0.05 yuan and 0.29 yuan respectively According to the closing price of 5.74 yuan on October 18, 2012, the corresponding dynamic P / E ratio will be 239 times, 116 times and 20 times respectively Maintain the company's "neutral" investment rating Risk hint: the outbreak of livestock and poultry epidemic; policy regulation leads to the failure of cycle rule New hope: business pressure still needs to be further released research institution: Oriental Securities analyst: Chen Zhenzhi date of writing: 2012-11-01 event The company released the third quarter report In the first three quarters, the company realized an operating revenue of 55664.14 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.65% In the first three quarters, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1473.62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.27%, and diluted earnings per share was 0.85 yuan In the third quarter, the operating revenue was 19797.46 million yuan, down 10.28% year-on-year, the net profit was 476.96 million yuan, down 50.96% year-on-year, and the diluted earnings per share was 0.27 yuan (the data of 2011 has been retroactively adjusted, which is comparable) the key investment point is that the equity investment income of Minsheng Bank (600016) accounts for 68.91% of the company's net profit in the first three quarters The net profit of Minsheng Bank in the first three quarters of this year is 28810 million yuan According to the current shareholding ratio of new hope, we calculate that the equity investment income of Minsheng Bank (no need to pay income tax repeatedly) contributes about 1015.55 million yuan of net profit to new hope, accounting for 68.91% In the third quarter, the farming and animal husbandry business did not improve significantly From a year-on-year perspective, the negative growth rate of the company's net profit in the third quarter is further expanded than that in the middle report (- 10.29%) The reasons are as follows: (1) the price of livestock and poultry meat and the price of chicken and duck seedling rose sharply in the third quarter of last year and reached the boom peak of this cycle, so that the third quarter of last year was the quarter with the highest performance base; (2) from the trend of month on month comparison, the price of livestock and poultry products and chicken and duck seedling in the third quarter was the same Compared with the continuous downturn, the price of chicken and duck seedlings still dropped by more than 70% year on year, which led to the company's slaughtering meat products business and breeding business difficult to improve significantly We expect that the operating pressure on the company caused by the downturn of the industry cycle will not be fully released until the first half of next year 2013 central No.1 document is expected to focus on the agricultural operation system 2013 central No.1 document is expected to focus on the agricultural operation system (2) 2013 central No.1 document is expected to focus on the agricultural operation system (3) 2013 central No.1 document is expected to focus on the agricultural operation system (4) 2013 central No.1 document is expected to focus on the agricultural operation system (5) In 2013, the No.1 document of the Central Committee is expected to focus on the agricultural operation system (6) 1 / 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 The last page (author:) will be shared on feed micro blog to: