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;
"The most expensive is fine ribs, the price is as high as 49.
98 yuan / jin, even frozen ribs, the price is 39.
98 yuan / jin
.
The staff said that since October, the price of pork has risen basically every day, one price a day, sometimes more than
one piece a day.
”
Recently, the "second senior brother" has stood on the upper hand, and his value has "soared"
again.
On October 19, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of October 10 to October 14, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, entering the excessive increase level 1 warning range determined by the "Improve the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices in the Pork Market"
.
On the table of Chinese people, pork is always indispensable
.
Some netizens joked: Unknowingly, my braised pork freedom is
in danger.
It is worth noting that just after the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, it is obviously in the off-season of consumption, but why has the price of pork soared?
Pig prices soared
"A pound of pork belly costs more than 30 yuan, why is pork so expensive?" In front of a pork stall of a supermarket chain in Beijing, a customer lamented
.
In this supermarket, China Newsweek noticed that the price of pork almost always starts with "2", the front and rear legs are lean meat 15.
5 yuan / jin, the back tip with skin is 25.
98 yuan / jin, the tenderloin is 31.
98 yuan / jin, the skin is 33.
98 yuan / jin, and the high-quality cavity row is 39.
98 yuan / jin.
.
.
Pig prices are once again "flying into the sky"
.
Photo by Yu Yuan
Among them, the most expensive is the boutique rib, the price is as high as 49.
98 yuan / jin, even frozen ribs, the price is 39.
98 yuan / jin
.
The staff said that since October, the price of pork has risen basically every day, one price a day, sometimes more than
one piece a day.
In fact, pig prices have risen not for a day or two
.
According to data from China Pig Network, pig prices returned to the upward channel
this year after falling to a low of 11.
78 yuan / kg on March 21.
In the third quarter, especially after entering October, the upward momentum was more obvious
.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of pig producers rose by 36.
1% in the third quarter of this year, reversing the trend of year-on-year decline for seven consecutive quarters
.
As of October 20, the pig price reached 28.
59 yuan / kg, a new high this year, and the cumulative increase in the past six months has exceeded 100%.
For pig prices, experts who participated in the analysis and judgment organized by the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that from historical data, the highest average price of pigs in the "pig cycle" before 2019 was about 21 yuan per kilogram, even considering the rising cost factors in recent years, the current price is already at an excessive level
.
Affected by the rise in pig prices, pig breeding enterprises that have lost most of the year have also changed their previous decline, and sales revenue has risen
sharply in September.
According to statistics, the 16 pig companies that have released data in the A-share market slaughtered a total of about 10.
2553 million pigs in September, with a total sales revenue of 24.
305 billion yuan
.
Among them, the sales volume and revenue of "Hogscue" Makihara shares ranked first, with 4.
462 million head and 11.
959 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 44.
6% and 180.
2%
respectively.
China Newsweek noted that the average pig sales price of most pig companies in September was more than 23 yuan/kg, with a maximum of 26.
81 yuan/kg, compared with around 12 yuan/kg in the
same period last year.
Pig farmers are reluctant to sell
In essence, the change in pig price reflects the change in supply and demand, and China's pork demand is generally stable, so the trend of pork prices is mainly determined
by supply.
At the industry seminar previously organized by the National Development and Reform Commission, experts believe that the recent significant increase in pig prices is an important reason why some farmers have irrationally over-pressed fences and secondary fattening to reduce market supply
.
Generally speaking, the rise in pork prices will drive farmers to be motivated to slaughter, but why are they reluctant to sell?
Feng Yonghui, an analyst at the pig early warning network, pointed out to China Newsweek that the phenomenon of reluctance to sell is a very obvious speculation, betting that prices will rise
in the future.
"In two months, the peak consumption season of the Spring Festival will arrive, which is also the high point
of pork prices in the year.
Refilling the fence will definitely not catch up, so farmers choose to press the fence
.
”
Lin Guofa, research director of Brake Agricultural Big Data Group, further analyzed that from November to January of the following year, it is the peak consumption season
for pork.
On the one hand, the drop in temperature in autumn and winter has led to an increase
in residents' daily dietary pork consumption.
On the other hand, autumn and winter are also the peak season for traditional food production in China, and the demand for various meat processing is strong, especially food processing such as sausage and bacon, which further stimulates pork consumption
.
According to Lin Guofa's observation, before and after the National Day, some pigs were originally about to be slaughtered for more than 200 catties, but they were fattened by some farmers for the second time and raised to more than 300 catties
.
"This is raising pigs as cattle!"
"Behind this is the pursuit
of profits, especially excess profits.
" Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to China Newsweek that before 2018, the aquaculture industry had been in a state of small profits or even losses for a long time, and it was hard money
.
However, in the last round of pig cycle, many breeding companies made a lot of profits, and the profit of raising a pig exceeded 1,000 yuan became the norm, so enterprises hope to further grab profits
.
China Newsweek checked the data and learned that the profit from raising a pig has already exceeded 1,000 yuan
.
On October 20, the weekly analysis report of the pig market released by Zhuochuang Information pointed out that the profit of self-breeding and self-raising in the week and the profit of piglet fattening theory increased
month-on-month.
The average profit of self-breeding and self-support in the country was 1641.
87 yuan / head, up 119.
48 yuan / head
from the previous month.
The average profit of piglet fattening was 1566.
91 yuan/head, up 118.
22 yuan/head
from the previous month.
Regulatory plus
In the face of rising pig prices, macro-control is constantly increasing
.
On October 19, news from the National Development and Reform Commission showed that the state will release the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year, and guide all localities to increase efforts to synchronize the release of local government pork reserves
.
Since October 15, Beijing has been stockpiling pork
from government reserves.
The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce said that the planned amount of reserve pork in this round is 600 tons, and a total of 576 stores are sold
in 24 chain supermarkets and two corporate retail outlets in the city.
Beijing began stockpiling pork
from government reserves.
Photo by Yu Yuan
On October 25, China Newsweek saw a large red banner printed with the slogan
"Beijing Municipal Government Reserve Meat Drop-off Point" inside a neighborhood supermarket.
Compared with fresh meat, the price of reserve meat is indeed much
lower.
For example, the front leg lean meat 14.
99 yuan / jin, the back leg lean meat 15.
99 yuan / jin, the first-class pork belly 21.
90 yuan / jin, the spine 20.
50 yuan / jin
.
The symptoms must also be cured
.
Li Guoxiang said that increasing production and supply is the fundamental policy
to stabilize pork prices.
"Aquaculture entities, especially large-scale aquaculture enterprises, should speed up the slaughtering efforts
.
"
On October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission said that in response to the recent situation of pig prices continuing to run at a high level, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission strengthened communication and coordination with some large-scale pig breeding enterprises, and suggested that enterprises maintain a normal slaughtering rhythm and slaughter fattening pigs to promote the stability of pig prices and the smooth operation of the market; It is not allowed to deliberately press the column to raise the price, let alone collude to increase the price
.
Muyuan said on the interactive platform that the recent increase in the price of pigs, the company took the initiative to increase the amount of slaughter according to market demand, actively cooperate with the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and promote the smooth operation of
the pig market and price.
New Hope also said that the company, as a leading breeding enterprise, will increase the number of pigs slaughtered before and after the festival to ensure the stable supply of pigs, and the monthly slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to increase
.
After a multi-pronged approach, pork prices have finally "cooled
down".
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs on October 25 was 28.
15 yuan/kg, down
from 28.
59 yuan/kg on October 20.
Stable production capacity can stabilize pig prices
Behind China's high concern about pork prices is that pork prices not only affect the freedom of braised pork, but also affect the vital interests of
the people.
Figure/Picture worm creative
Feng Yonghui pointed out that pork prices have a great
impact on China's CPI basket.
On the one hand, pork is the most important meat consumer product for Chinese residents, and pork accounts for about 60%
of China's meat production in 2021.
Therefore, pork has a high
weight in the CPI basket of goods.
On the other hand, pork prices fluctuate more
relative to other commodities.
Moreover, the increase in pork prices also has a transmission effect
on the price increase of substitutes such as other livestock and poultry products.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI rose 2.
8% year-on-year and 0.
3% month-on-month in September, hitting a new high
since May 2020.
Food prices are the main factors driving the rise in CPI, of which pork prices rose by 36.
0% year-on-year, an increase of 13.
6 percentage points
over the previous month.
Lin Guofa analyzed that from a longer-term perspective, the state encourages farmers to go out as soon as possible There is another profound meaning, that is, to avoid "people and animals competing for food"
.
With the rapid development of animal husbandry, especially pig farming, feed has become one of the main competitors of
human food resources.
Although China's grain output has been stable at more than 600 million tons for a long time, the import volume has also remained high
.
Data show that China's grain imports reached 160 million tons last year, and the total grain output and imports totaled 850 million tons, a record high
.
"Imported grains are mainly soybeans, corn and wheat, which are mainly used to make up for the shortage of
feed grain.
The larger the weight of the pig, the greater the feed consumption, which will aggravate the shortage
of feed grain in China.
Lin Guofa analyzed
.
In order to effectively alleviate the cyclical fluctuations in pig and pork market prices, in June 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration for Market Regulation and other departments jointly issued the "Improve the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism and Do a Good Job in the Pork Market to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices"
.
The plan will give full play to the important role of the government's pork reserve adjustment as a key starting point, and insist on paying equal attention to "raising and lowering" the price of live pigs and pork, ensuring price stability with stable supply, and promoting stable supply with stable
prices.
Li Guoxiang also added that while guiding the production of aquaculture enterprises, the competent government departments should further regulate the sales behavior of large-scale aquaculture enterprises to avoid enterprises from damaging market order
in pursuit of excess profits.
Feng Yonghui believes that the fundamental thing to avoid the big fluctuation of pig prices is to ensure the stability
of pig production capacity.
An important factor restricting the stability of production capacity is that the level of China's pig breeding industry is not high
enough.
"The degree of scale is not high, resulting in the connection between supply and demand is not good enough, and it is easy to 'rush up and scatter'
when there is a wind and grass.
"
Data show that the number of retail households in the country accounts for more than 99% of the main body of pig farming, and the number of pigs slaughtered accounts for about half
of the total.
"In the future, the country should do a good job in top-level design, not support when the price is high, tighten when the price is low, and maintain the stability
of the policy.
" Feng Yonghui pointed out
.
;
; "The most expensive is fine ribs, the price is as high as 49.
98 yuan / jin, even frozen ribs, the price is 39.
98 yuan / jin
.
The staff said that since October, the price of pork has risen basically every day, one price a day, sometimes more than
one piece a day.
”
Recently, the "second senior brother" has stood on the upper hand, and his value has "soared"
again.
On October 19, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of October 10 to October 14, the average weekly retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by more than 40% compared with the same period last year, entering the excessive increase level 1 warning range determined by the "Improve the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices in the Pork Market"
.
On the table of Chinese people, pork is always indispensable
.
Some netizens joked: Unknowingly, my braised pork freedom is
in danger.
It is worth noting that just after the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, it is obviously in the off-season of consumption, but why has the price of pork soared?
Pig prices soared
Pig prices soar Pig prices soar "A pound of pork belly costs more than 30 yuan, why is pork so expensive?" In front of a pork stall of a supermarket chain in Beijing, a customer lamented
.
In this supermarket, China Newsweek noticed that the price of pork almost always starts with "2", the front and rear legs are lean meat 15.
5 yuan / jin, the back tip with skin is 25.
98 yuan / jin, the tenderloin is 31.
98 yuan / jin, the skin is 33.
98 yuan / jin, and the high-quality cavity row is 39.
98 yuan / jin.
.
.
Pig prices are once again "flying into the sky"
.
Photo by Yu Yuan
Among them, the most expensive is the boutique rib, the price is as high as 49.
98 yuan / jin, even frozen ribs, the price is 39.
98 yuan / jin
.
The staff said that since October, the price of pork has risen basically every day, one price a day, sometimes more than
one piece a day.
In fact, pig prices have risen not for a day or two
.
According to data from China Pig Network, pig prices returned to the upward channel
this year after falling to a low of 11.
78 yuan / kg on March 21.
In the third quarter, especially after entering October, the upward momentum was more obvious
.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of pig producers rose by 36.
1% in the third quarter of this year, reversing the trend of year-on-year decline for seven consecutive quarters
.
As of October 20, the pig price reached 28.
59 yuan / kg, a new high this year, and the cumulative increase in the past six months has exceeded 100%.
For pig prices, experts who participated in the analysis and judgment organized by the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that from historical data, the highest average price of pigs in the "pig cycle" before 2019 was about 21 yuan per kilogram, even considering the rising cost factors in recent years, the current price is already at an excessive level
.
Affected by the rise in pig prices, pig breeding enterprises that have lost most of the year have also changed their previous decline, and sales revenue has risen
sharply in September.
According to statistics, the 16 pig companies that have released data in the A-share market slaughtered a total of about 10.
2553 million pigs in September, with a total sales revenue of 24.
305 billion yuan
.
Among them, the sales volume and revenue of "Hogscue" Makihara shares ranked first, with 4.
462 million head and 11.
959 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 44.
6% and 180.
2%
respectively.
China Newsweek noted that the average pig sales price of most pig companies in September was more than 23 yuan/kg, with a maximum of 26.
81 yuan/kg, compared with around 12 yuan/kg in the
same period last year.
Pig farmers are reluctant to sell
Pig farmers are reluctant to sell Pig farmers are reluctant to sell In essence, the change in pig price reflects the change in supply and demand, and China's pork demand is generally stable, so the trend of pork prices is mainly determined
by supply.
At the industry seminar previously organized by the National Development and Reform Commission, experts believe that the recent significant increase in pig prices is an important reason why some farmers have irrationally over-pressed fences and secondary fattening to reduce market supply
.
Generally speaking, the rise in pork prices will drive farmers to be motivated to slaughter, but why are they reluctant to sell?
Feng Yonghui, an analyst at the pig early warning network, pointed out to China Newsweek that the phenomenon of reluctance to sell is a very obvious speculation, betting that prices will rise
in the future.
"In two months, the peak consumption season of the Spring Festival will arrive, which is also the high point
of pork prices in the year.
Refilling the fence will definitely not catch up, so farmers choose to press the fence
.
”
Lin Guofa, research director of Brake Agricultural Big Data Group, further analyzed that from November to January of the following year, it is the peak consumption season
for pork.
On the one hand, the drop in temperature in autumn and winter has led to an increase
in residents' daily dietary pork consumption.
On the other hand, autumn and winter are also the peak season for traditional food production in China, and the demand for various meat processing is strong, especially food processing such as sausage and bacon, which further stimulates pork consumption
.
According to Lin Guofa's observation, before and after the National Day, some pigs were originally about to be slaughtered for more than 200 catties, but they were fattened by some farmers for the second time and raised to more than 300 catties
.
"This is raising pigs as cattle!"
"Behind this is the pursuit
of profits, especially excess profits.
" Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed to China Newsweek that before 2018, the aquaculture industry had been in a state of small profits or even losses for a long time, and it was hard money
.
However, in the last round of pig cycle, many breeding companies made a lot of profits, and the profit of raising a pig exceeded 1,000 yuan became the norm, so enterprises hope to further grab profits
.
China Newsweek checked the data and learned that the profit from raising a pig has already exceeded 1,000 yuan
.
On October 20, the weekly analysis report of the pig market released by Zhuochuang Information pointed out that the profit of self-breeding and self-raising in the week and the profit of piglet fattening theory increased
month-on-month.
The average profit of self-breeding and self-support in the country was 1641.
87 yuan / head, up 119.
48 yuan / head
from the previous month.
The average profit of piglet fattening was 1566.
91 yuan/head, up 118.
22 yuan/head
from the previous month.
Regulatory plus
Regulatory Plus Regulatory plus In the face of rising pig prices, macro-control is constantly increasing
.
On October 19, news from the National Development and Reform Commission showed that the state will release the sixth batch of central pork reserves this year, and guide all localities to increase efforts to synchronize the release of local government pork reserves
.
Since October 15, Beijing has been stockpiling pork
from government reserves.
The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce said that the planned amount of reserve pork in this round is 600 tons, and a total of 576 stores are sold
in 24 chain supermarkets and two corporate retail outlets in the city.
Beijing began stockpiling pork
from government reserves.
Photo by Yu Yuan
On October 25, China Newsweek saw a large red banner printed with the slogan
"Beijing Municipal Government Reserve Meat Drop-off Point" inside a neighborhood supermarket.
Compared with fresh meat, the price of reserve meat is indeed much
lower.
For example, the front leg lean meat 14.
99 yuan / jin, the back leg lean meat 15.
99 yuan / jin, the first-class pork belly 21.
90 yuan / jin, the spine 20.
50 yuan / jin
.
The symptoms must also be cured
.
Li Guoxiang said that increasing production and supply is the fundamental policy
to stabilize pork prices.
"Aquaculture entities, especially large-scale aquaculture enterprises, should speed up the slaughtering efforts
.
"
On October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission said that in response to the recent situation of pig prices continuing to run at a high level, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission strengthened communication and coordination with some large-scale pig breeding enterprises, and suggested that enterprises maintain a normal slaughtering rhythm and slaughter fattening pigs to promote the stability of pig prices and the smooth operation of the market; It is not allowed to deliberately press the column to raise the price, let alone collude to increase the price
.
Muyuan said on the interactive platform that the recent increase in the price of pigs, the company took the initiative to increase the amount of slaughter according to market demand, actively cooperate with the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and promote the smooth operation of
the pig market and price.
New Hope also said that the company, as a leading breeding enterprise, will increase the number of pigs slaughtered before and after the festival to ensure the stable supply of pigs, and the monthly slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to increase
.
After a multi-pronged approach, pork prices have finally "cooled
down".
According to data from China Pig Network, the price of live pigs on October 25 was 28.
15 yuan/kg, down
from 28.
59 yuan/kg on October 20.
Stable production capacity can stabilize pig prices
Stable production capacity can stabilize pig prices Stable production capacity can stabilize pig prices Behind China's high concern about pork prices is that pork prices not only affect the freedom of braised pork, but also affect the vital interests of
the people.
Figure/Picture worm creative
Feng Yonghui pointed out that pork prices have a great
impact on China's CPI basket.
On the one hand, pork is the most important meat consumer product for Chinese residents, and pork accounts for about 60%
of China's meat production in 2021.
Therefore, pork has a high
weight in the CPI basket of goods.
On the other hand, pork prices fluctuate more
relative to other commodities.
Moreover, the increase in pork prices also has a transmission effect
on the price increase of substitutes such as other livestock and poultry products.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CPI rose 2.
8% year-on-year and 0.
3% month-on-month in September, hitting a new high
since May 2020.
Food prices are the main factors driving the rise in CPI, of which pork prices rose by 36.
0% year-on-year, an increase of 13.
6 percentage points
over the previous month.
Lin Guofa analyzed that from a longer-term perspective, the state encourages farmers to go out as soon as possible There is another profound meaning, that is, to avoid "people and animals competing for food"
.
With the rapid development of animal husbandry, especially pig farming, feed has become one of the main competitors of
human food resources.
Although China's grain output has been stable at more than 600 million tons for a long time, the import volume has also remained high
.
Data show that China's grain imports reached 160 million tons last year, and the total grain output and imports totaled 850 million tons, a record high
.
"Imported grains are mainly soybeans, corn and wheat, which are mainly used to make up for the shortage of
feed grain.
The larger the weight of the pig, the greater the feed consumption, which will aggravate the shortage
of feed grain in China.
Lin Guofa analyzed
.
In order to effectively alleviate the cyclical fluctuations in pig and pork market prices, in June 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, the State Administration for Market Regulation and other departments jointly issued the "Improve the Government's Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism and Do a Good Job in the Pork Market to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices"
.
The plan will give full play to the important role of the government's pork reserve adjustment as a key starting point, and insist on paying equal attention to "raising and lowering" the price of live pigs and pork, ensuring price stability with stable supply, and promoting stable supply with stable
prices.
Li Guoxiang also added that while guiding the production of aquaculture enterprises, the competent government departments should further regulate the sales behavior of large-scale aquaculture enterprises to avoid enterprises from damaging market order
in pursuit of excess profits.
Feng Yonghui believes that the fundamental thing to avoid the big fluctuation of pig prices is to ensure the stability
of pig production capacity.
An important factor restricting the stability of production capacity is that the level of China's pig breeding industry is not high
enough.
"The degree of scale is not high, resulting in the connection between supply and demand is not good enough, and it is easy to 'rush up and scatter'
when there is a wind and grass.
"
Data show that the number of retail households in the country accounts for more than 99% of the main body of pig farming, and the number of pigs slaughtered accounts for about half
of the total.
"In the future, the country should do a good job in top-level design, not support when the price is high, tighten when the price is low, and maintain the stability
of the policy.
" Feng Yonghui pointed out
.
