World soybean market report

Introduction: ★ overall review: September 1 marks the official start of 2001 / 02 soybean market year But for soybean sellers, this is not good news to celebrate By Friday, soybean prices had been falling steadily The main reason is that the weather has been good in the past few weeks; expectations for yield per unit have increased accordingly; and the demand of China and India, the two largest importers of us soybeans, is questionable On Monday, soybean prices rose slightly, and the market said that the current rainfall has little impact on the change of soybean yield Instead, soybean meal fell on Monday and rebounded on Tuesday ★ on the supply side, Brazilian analysts believe that due to the low cost of land, the seemingly endless expansion of land, the surprising productivity and the low cost of labor, Brazil is likely to surpass the United States and become the world's No 1 soybean producer within 10 years This week Brazil also reported that Brazil will approve the commercial production of genetically modified soybeans, and the market expects Brazil to approve the labeling of more than 4% of products with genetically modified ingredients Usually in the middle of September, there is early frost in China, which may seriously affect soybean production Traders need to keep a close eye on weather forecasts for the coming weeks ★ demand: U.S exporters announced the sale of 110000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination In addition, South Korea bought 45000 tons of non GM US soybeans from Cargill this week In order to increase domestic soybean consumption, the school lunch program was launched in the United States to accommodate more soybean protein in school lunches in public schools Thailand produces 300000 to 400000 tons of soybeans a year This year, Thailand approved the import of 1.2 million tons of soybeans to protect its farmers But Thailand's feed processing plant is reported to have run out of soybeans Thai processing plants may not be able to purchase from India until November Yesterday, Thailand's feed processing plant announced that it would start buying U.S soybeans for October shipment Cargill and Bunge have invested R $5 million ($1.95 million) in Brazil's illeums (Bahai) port to speed up soybean shipments The new port will help meet the needs of South America The daily transportation capacity is expected to increase from 13000 tons to 15000 tons per day The two companies clearly expect significant growth in the next few years Indonesia reported that its global feed consumption will grow in line with the expansion of its poultry business Feed consumption is expected to return to its pre crisis level of 6.5 million tons soon Importers will buy from the US as buyers report that US soybean meal is superior in quality and price to Indian soybean meal Buyers also remain concerned about foot-and-mouth disease, which is still likely to be found in feed in South America Genetically modified ingredients are having a serious impact on the world's soybean demand In fact, the U.S Department of agriculture has recently lowered its corn export forecast by 50 million bushels, which is the result of the world's opposition to genetically modified products Even American farmers have expressed their willingness to switch from genetically modified crops to traditional ones, fearing that they could harm exports On August 29, 2001, a consumer group associated with a farmers' group in the Philippines urged the Ministry of agriculture to stop plans to allow genetically modified corn and soybean field experiments Then anti GM protesters destroyed a French farm that grew Monsanto's RR soybeans The attack follows three similar protests last week Monsanto asked the French government to protect the experimental fields French Agriculture Minister Jean Glavany has successfully deployed police in Gironde and Vienna to protect the genetically modified crops However, the famous French activist Jose bove told the French newspaper Dimanche, "no matter what method the government takes, no matter how unhappy Lionel Jospin and the Minister of agriculture are, we will continue to destroy the fields of these genetically modified crops by the end of September "Australia recently announced a new import regulation, which came into force on December 7, 2001, requiring all genetically modified imports to be properly labeled China's regulations on the import of genetically modified products continue to confuse soybean traders There are still too many ambiguities around the GM logo However, most people agree that soybean sellers are unlikely to get a lot of new business from China in the next few weeks China's restrictions on imports of genetically modified products could force many Chinese oilseed crushers to shut down or at least switch to other raw materials, such as rapeseed But Chinese processors are reluctant to pay for the premium for non GM soybeans when they are actually flooded with cheap GM soybeans Last week, China's Ministry of agriculture warned in a report on its website that restricting imports of GM soybeans could raise domestic prices, lead to shortages, trigger trade disputes and become an obstacle to China's accession to the world trade organization Japanese traders announced that they would import more soybean meal by the end of this year to maintain a balance between supply and demand However, several Japanese Importers avoided the US soybean meal, and last week concluded a deal to import 25000 tons of Indian soybean meal, with a shipment date of November and a FOB price of about $185 per ton, while other importers negotiated with China and Brazil to purchase the soybean meal on the spot shipment date ★ price: Brazil will challenge the US subsidy policy for soybeans Brazil said the U.S subsidies to soybean farmers exceeded the WTO ceiling Brazil's soybean producers calculated that without US soybean subsidies, soybean prices in the world market would be 30% higher than they are now US subsidies to domestic soybean farmers are used to compensate for the loss of soybean farmers' production and to make up for the difference between production costs and the depressed market price Recently, Brazil asked the WTO to set up a committee to decide whether the subsidies violated the 1994 Uruguay round of free trade agreements Soybean futures fell sharply on the Chicago Board of trade Soybeans fell to $4.786 per bushel in September and $4.86 in November Soybeans also fell to $4.906 in January On the contrary, soybean meal prices rose yesterday, reaching 169.30 US dollars / short ton in September, 168.40 US dollars in October, but flat at 168.60 US dollars in December (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: