World soybean and soybean meal trade and China's Countermeasures

Introduction: in order to reflect comprehensively and concretely as much as possible, we take the calculation of the annual average as the criterion, while the full year trade data, the latest one is 1999 So feed trade, including soybean meal, is 1999 data First, the general situation of soybean trade in the world is analyzed First, international soybean trade and future countermeasures 1 The pattern of world soybean production and trade is very special I'm not very good at planting Twenty years ago, I proposed that soybean should be imported Now, I still think that in China where land resources are in short supply, importing soybean is equal to importing land resources, which is a desirable strategy The total output of soybeans in the world is 156.812 million tons Not all countries produce soybeans Countries with short land resources rely on imports, and some even do not produce at all Europe seldom grows soybeans, accounting for only 1.47% of the world's soybean production; the 12 countries of the European Community only produce 1.157 million tons, accounting for 0.74% of the total production The United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Poland are all agricultural developed countries, but they do not grow or rarely grow soybeans But they grow a lot of legume It is estimated that it is not cost-effective for them to source protein from soybeans, because soybeans have short growth period, low yield and land occupation It's better to import from a country with an advantage in land than to produce by itself Recently, the good news on TV was that a company in Heilongjiang didn't believe in evil It ordered soybean futures with farmers to reassure them Ambition is good, but it depends on how long you can hold on Of course, national taxpayers should not be allowed to plug in the hole for your money Otherwise, the big talker will always be the winner You know, only 1.54 yuan per kilogram is paid for importing soybeans from Argentina, while the market price of soybeans in China is 2.85 yuan How much do you plan to buy If I'm a farmer and I import South American soybeans and sell them to you, do you want to buy them? I hope you've done a feasibility study before making a decision 2 The development strategy of soybean in China China's soybean planting is not cost-effective, due to the lack of land and low yield, forming a disadvantage In fact, under the condition of economic strength, importing products that consume more resources means importing land resources that are in short supply in China Some countries do have better conditions than us For example, Australia has 45 mu of arable land per capita, Canada has 28 mu, Argentina has 14 mu, and the United States has 10 mu The world cannot compete with them The soybean producing countries in the world are very concentrated, all of which are rich in land resources In 1999, the largest soybean producing countries were the United States, which produced 72.223 million tons, accounting for 46.1% of the world's total production; Brazil, 30.901 million tons, accounting for 19.71%; Argentina, 19.50 million tons, accounting for 12.44%; China, 14.245 million tons, accounting for 9.08% The following is India's 6.6 million tons, accounting for 4.21%; Canada's 2.7661 million tons, accounting for 1.76% These countries already account for 92% of the total, while others are very limited China is also a country rich in land resources, but it is relatively short because of its large population In my opinion, China only produces soybeans in order to have room for bargaining in the international market, otherwise, it will not meet economically and in terms of total output But this is not the best plan for land use It seems that after China's accession to the WTO, we should establish long-term trade relations in the international soybean trade and strengthen domestic propaganda and interpretation Recently, President Jiang visited South America and established a good trade relationship It is estimated that there are many investment enterprises in South America, which need foreign exchange If we buy soybeans and use our own ships to transport them back, it will be much more economical than planting soybeans at home As a result of reducing the cost of protein feed and enhancing the competitiveness of China's livestock products in the international market, it is certainly better than "self-reliance" Of course, the best choice is "two ends are outside", import soybean, export soybean products, including soybean protein products, livestock products, pharmaceutical products and so on 3 The pattern of world soybean trade We still study in 23 representative countries The total output of soybean is 148.441 million tons, accounting for 94.66% of the world's soybean output The results of this analysis can fully represent the overall situation of global soybean trade In 1999, the global soybean trade was: 41.743 million tons of imported soybeans; 40.436 million tons of exported soybeans; accounting for 26.62% and 25.70% of soybean production respectively It seems that soybean is the main target of world trade All countries attach great importance to this market There are many soybean importing countries, but not many exporting countries, mainly concentrated in several countries with rich land resources, which is related to the world agricultural development Industrialized countries have transformed their traditional agriculture into relying on science and technology to improve productivity However, the cost of planting low-yield crops in developed countries is too high, which forces them to rely on imported protein feed The United States, South America and Australia, which are rich in resources, use more land and have simple planting technology, so that they can give full play to the advantages of mechanization and grow soybeans on a large scale to become a specialized exporter It seems that agricultural development depends on international trade and is also an integral part of modern agriculture Emphasizing that self-reliance is not a wise decision In 1999, the three soybean exporting countries (the United States, Brazil and Argentina) exported 35133000 tons, accounting for 87.2% of the world's total exports It seems that the soybean trade market has a great monopoly The developed countries exported 23.435 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 56.1% of the total imports Developed countries rely on imported soybeans to develop animal husbandry European countries, in particular, account for 75.7% of developed countries' imports Asia also relies heavily on international soybeans, importing 17.73 million tons a year This shows that it is not a wrong decision for us to buy soybeans in the world market 4 Analysis of soybean exporting countries in the world Soybean exporting countries are very limited In 1999, the countries with the largest export were ranked as follows: first, the United States, with an export volume of 23.15 million tons, accounting for 57.44% of the world's export; second, Brazil, with an export volume of 8.917 million tons, accounting for 22.12%; third, Argentina, with an export volume of 3.065 million tons, accounting for 7.61%; second, the Netherlands, with an export volume of 1.411 million tons, accounting for 3.50%; Canada, with an export volume of 877 thousand tons, accounting for 2.17%; China, with an export volume of 0.55%; and soybeans from the above countries are exported The population accounts for 93.4% of the world's total It is not only related to the world soybean export price, but also affects the world's livestock production and people's health All of these countries, except China, are engaged in soybean production The export volume of soybean accounts for 16% - 32% of domestic soybean production, only 1.55% of China's They become the main export force because of their strong price competitiveness The average export price of soybeans in the world is 190.1 US dollars per ton; that of Argentina is 166.4 US dollars; that of Brazil is 178.7 US dollars; and that of the United States is 196.8 US dollars Of course, this is related to soybean varieties, but it is also difficult for China to compete with developed countries China's soybean market price is on the high side, now it is equivalent to US $343 per ton, which is 2.1 times higher than that of ayeting, and 74.5% higher than the world average export price, which is really unable to compete China has no conditions to export soybeans, only a small number of special varieties, and the export price is not low, reaching 304.5 US dollars Lower than the domestic sales price 5 Study the soybean import and market situation The purpose of studying soybean import in the world is to analyze our purchasing market There are many soybean importing countries, and our statistics show that the 23 countries account for 62.6% of the total imports, indicating that the importing countries are not only big countries, but also many countries rely on international soybean to balance their soybean consumption According to the 23 statistical powers, the first is China, with an import of 6.713 million tons; the second is Japan, with an import of 4.884 million tons; the third is Holland, with an import of 4.876 million tons; the fourth is Germany, with an import of 4.219 million tons; the second is Thailand, Italy, Britain, France, Brazil, Malaysia, Canada, Argentina, Russia and the United States, with an import range of 100000-1 million tons China also exports soybeans, of course, there may be some special varieties, and the quantity may not be large We can only seek small, fragmented markets As shown in Table 1 Table 1: soybean import and export of typical countries (10000 tons) in 1999 soybean export of countries soybean import of America 2315.0 10.5 Brazil 891.7 58.2 Argentina 306.5 29.4 Netherlands 141.1 487.6 Canada 87.7 42.1 China 22.1 671.3 Malaya 6.4 54.7 Japan 0.0 488.4 Germany 1.2 421.8 2 international soybean meal trade and future opportunities and Countermeasures 1 Soybean meal is very important in the world feed trade Based on the analysis of 23 representative countries, the total output of soybean meal is 121.884 million tons, accounting for 100.0% of the world's total output The analysis result is the overall situation of global soybean meal trade This shows that soybean meal trade mainly takes place between big and developed countries, and they have their own trade circle In 1999, the global soybean meal trade was 37.478 million tons of imports and 39.123 million tons of exports, accounting for 36.85% and 38.49% of the total respectively It seems that the world soybean meal trade accounts for about 40% of the output Soybean meal is imported every year in China, and the soybean meal trade is related to the development of animal husbandry in China To study the relationship between the world soybean meal market and China's trade strategy 2 World soybean meal export trade The largest soybean meal export is also controlled by the large country of land resources In 1999, according to how many exports: first, Argentina, a country exports 13.088 million tons, accounting for 33.5% of the world's exports Table 2: in 1998, attention should be paid to the import and export of soybean meal from typical countries (10000 pieces) and the export of soybean meal from countries to Argentina 0.00 13o8.70 Brazil 7.80 1043.07 US 3.91 612.37 Netherlands 171.6 273.67 India 0.03 260.18 France 394.27 3.93 Italy 216.93 7.51 Germany 192.07 119.77 UK 161.37 1.23 Denmark 150.77 5.82 China 62.08 1.37 A large proportion of animal husbandry in Argentina is grassland animal husbandry, and the consumption of soybean meal in Argentina is not much The second is Brazil, which exports 10.431 million tons, accounting for 26.7% of the world's total, while its domestic processing output is only 64000 tons It seems that Brazil's soybean processing industry is controlled by foreign enterprises It is estimated that the United States plays an important role in Brazil's agricultural products processing industry China should learn from South America's agricultural products processing industry, which still has many opportunities The third is the United States, which consumes most of the soybean meal for livestock production, leaving only 6.124 million tons for export, accounting for 15.7% of the output; the fourth is the Netherlands, which exports 2.737 million tons, accounting for 7.0% of the total There are a lot of protein feeds used and processed in the Netherlands Soybean meal is imported into Japan and then exported Surprisingly, soybean is not planted in the Netherlands These countries, especially the non developed countries, produce 54.7% of soybean meal for export India and Germany exported 2.602 million tons and 1.197 million tons respectively in 1999, accounting for 6.7% - 3.1% of the output Other countries, such as Italy, Canada, Denmark, France and so on, also export soybean meal, but the quantity is limited The export volume is less than 70000 tons, accounting for less than 1.0% of the global total It has little influence in World Trade and is extremely