World food demand in the next 20 years

Introduction: the International Food Policy Institute, funded by 58 governments, recently published a report entitled "global food outlook 2020: trends, responses and options" The report forecasts the production, consumption and demand of 16 major global food products over the next 20 years and assesses the impact of implementing policies, including trade liberalization and increased funding in agricultural research, health and education related to food safety and nutrition The report said that in the next 20 years, although the growth of global food demand is expected to slow down, the rapid growth of meat consumption will stimulate food demand in an absolute sense In the past 30 years, food production in some countries (such as India) has achieved synchronous growth with population; many countries increasingly rely on imports to meet domestic demand, because domestic production is less, or because citizens' income growth rate is faster than population growth rate, thus increasing the demand for food and feed food Food exports from Argentina, Australia, Europe and North America have doubled in recent years compared with 30 years ago; with the increasing income of citizens, the per capita consumption of livestock and meat in developing countries has doubled, among which the consumption of chicken has increased more; India and China have successfully met domestic food demand to a large extent In the past 20 years, the world's corn, rice and wheat prices have fallen by more than 50 per cent due to adequate supply In the next 20 years, although the growth of food demand in developing countries will account for the vast majority of global demand growth, the growth rate will not be as fast as before With the slowing down of population growth and the gradual reduction of food consumption by people in developing countries due to the increase of income and the change of eating habits, the annual growth rate of food demand in developing countries will decrease from 2.3% in 1974-1977 to 1.3% in 1997-2020 However, the absolute growth rate of grain demand in 1997-2020 is expected to be the same as that in the past 23 years With the increasing urban population and rapid economic growth, the growth of food demand in Asian developing countries will account for 50% of the total growth of global food demand, of which China will account for 25% From 1997 to 2020, the world's meat demand is expected to increase by more than 55%, most of which will be in developing countries China's meat demand growth will account for more than 40% of the world's growth, while India's will account for only 4% However, per capita meat consumption in South East Asia and sub Saharan Africa will be lower than the average in developing countries This gap indicates that the potential for meat consumption growth in these regions is still high With the gradual shift of human preference from mutton to chicken, the growth of chicken demand in 2020 will account for 40% of the total growth of global meat, compared with 28% in 1997 In order to meet the rapid growth of people's meat demand, the world farmers must produce more food (especially corn) as animal feed In the next 20 years, although the growth rate of food demand slows down, developing countries are still unable to achieve self-sufficiency in production, because the vast majority of developing countries have little potential to expand the cultivated land area In some parts of Asia, almost all suitable land is under cultivation, urban expansion is occupying more and more agricultural land, and land degradation is becoming more and more serious In contrast, sub Saharan Africa and Latin America have greater potential to expand arable land It is estimated that 20 million hectares of arable land will be reclaimed for food production in sub Saharan Africa, 8 million hectares in Latin America, and only 13 million hectares in other developing countries Due to the limited arable land that can be reclaimed, the increase of grain yield will mainly depend on the increase of single yield However, since 1980, the growth rate of grain yield per unit area in most regions of the world has been very slow As far as the developed countries are concerned, the slow growth of grain per unit area production is due to the policies they have implemented For example, governments in North America and Europe have been taking measures to reduce food stocks, reduce the amount of food price subsidies, and increase direct subsidies to farmers The economic collapse and reform of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union also damaged production to a large extent In the case of developing countries, particularly in Asia, the slow growth of food per unit area of production is due to a serious shortage of water resources, the lack of government investment in crop research and water infrastructure, and the excessive use of fertilizers and water The above factors are expected to reduce the growth rate of global grain per unit area production from 1.6% in 1982-1987 to 1% in 1997-2020 As developing countries are still unable to achieve food self-sufficiency by 2020, international trade will play an increasingly important role in providing food for many regions The United States will play a more dominant role in the international food market, while Europe will continue to maintain its position as a major food exporter By 2020, the net food imports of developing countries will more than double, especially those of Asian countries (especially China) McX (author:) to feed Weibo to: