Why is corn and soybean meal rising so much? China's feed grain gap

China uses 7% of its arable land to feed 22% of its population.
s a good sentence, but it's not just people who need to be farmed, it's tens of millions of livestock.
take pork as an example.
China is the world's largest pig producer and pork consumer, pig production and pork consumption accounted for more than 50% of the global proportion.
such a huge production and consumption, relying on a sufficient amount of feed food to support, which for the "human and animal food" laid the ambush pen.
experts believe that compared with rations, more attention should be paid to feed shortages and their possible impact on our lives.
, director of the China Agricultural Policy Research Center at Peking University, also pointed out that in the medium to long term, the fundamental problem of food security in China is the shortage of feed grain.
1, the change of dietary structure: "food as the framework" quietly to "meat as the framework" transformation, eating meat has just become the need for life since 1978, with the people's living standards are improving day by day, the dietary structure of our residents has undergone great changes, its remarkable feature is a significant reduction in food and other staple foods.
statistics show that the per capita food consumption of urban residents fell from 152 kg in 1978 to 110 kg in 2017, while the per capita food consumption of rural residents fell from 248 kg in 1978 to 155 kg in 2017.
consumption of animal foods such as meat, poultry, eggs and milk increased significantly.
per capita pork consumption of urban residents rose from 13.7 kg in 1978 to 20.6 kg in 2017, poultry from 1.0 kg in 1978 to 9.7 kg, and fresh eggs from 3.7 kg in 1978 to 10.3 kg; Per capita pork consumption in rural areas rose from 5.2 kg in 1978 to 19.5 kg in 2017, poultry from 0.3 kg in 1978 to 7.9 kg, and eggs from 0.8 kg in 1978 to 8.7 kg.
China's annual per capita meat consumption data source: USDA Note: After 2014 is the forecast, of which red is pork, green is poultry, blue is beef.
Currently, China's annual per capita meat consumption has risen from only 10 kg in 1980 to nearly 70 kg today, from the past with "meat ticket" quantitative meat to "want to eat", our dietary structure has undergone a dramatic change, "food as the framework" quietly to "meat as the outline" transformation.
2, the change of dietary structure is accompanied by the increase of meat imports and feed grain surge China is the world's largest pork consumption.
2019, global pork consumption reached 100.9 million tons, accounting for 44.5 percent of global pork consumption, according to USDA data.
can say that half of the world's pork is Chinese consumption.
china's pig production is also the world's first, but still insufficient production, imports year after year, and continue to grow.
2016-2019, China's pork imports were 1.6202 million tons, 1.2168 million tons, 1.1928 million tons and 3.128 million tons, respectively, an increase of 1.62 times over 2018; From January to July 2020, imports reached 3.337 million tons, exceeding the level for the whole of 2019.
with strong imports, since 2020, the main feed raw materials have risen, which covers corn, soybean meal, vegetable meal, cotton meal and other products.
so how much will feed raw material prices rise in 2020? We can look at the table below, of which the year's most crazy increase is corn, the year's rise of up to 662 yuan / ton, and the year's highest period of increase of more than 700 yuan / ton.
enter 2021, corn market on a strong basis, once again add code, spot success on the 3000 yuan mark, soybean meal prices also reached a high price of 4000 yuan / ton.
3, why is corn and soybean meal rising so much? Ring-linking, the important reason is that there is a gap in feed grain first look at one of the main raw materials of feed grain - soybeans.
china's import dependence on soybeans is quite high, more than 80% for 8 consecutive years.
, China's soybean production in 2019 was 18.1 million tons, an increase of nearly 13.34 percent over the previous year.
2019, China's soybean imports reached 88.51 million tons, imports have been more than 4 times the output! In 2020, soybean imports exceeded 100 million tons for the first time, the cumulative annual import of soybeans 10,032.82 million tons, an increase of 11.7% YoY.
and in the long run, China's soybean imports will remain at a high level.
, if you look at corn, imports in 2020 are also at an all-time high.
China imported a record 11.3 million tons of corn in 2020, up 135.7 percent from the previous year, according to the General Administration of Customs, the first time it has exceeded its annual tariff quota of 7.2 million tons.
market expects China's corn imports to remain strong in the future, recently, China has bought nearly 6 million tons of U.S. corn in a row, a one-week high.
feed production and food security are closely related.
share of feed grain in total grain production has risen from 20% in the 1950s to 40%; With the improvement of living standards, china's feed grain demand is forecast to account for 56.5% of the total grain demand by 2030.
China is the world's largest feed production country, feed grain growth in China's grain supply and demand balance is increasingly affected, in 2010, for example, 246 million tons of grain gap almost all from feed grain.
, although China is fully capable of ensuring the supply of rice and wheat rations, the safety of feed grain needs to be attached great importance.
the short term, higher feed grain prices drive up meat prices, farming enterprises are facing greater pressure.
long-term view, China's food security performance as "feed safety."
china's corn production needs to tighten for a long time, to maintain more than 90% of the self-se ratio needs to pay hard work; Soybeans are currently more than 80% dependent on the outside world, and the production and demand gap has a further expansion trend.
future, addressing the safe supply of feed grain will be key to ensuring food security.