Who will dominate the domestic corn market

Introduction: Recently, the market price of corn in China has a new low The average price of corn plate in Jilin Province (the same below) has fallen from 1000 yuan / ton in the early stage to 980 yuan / ton, and that in Heilongjiang Province is 960 yuan / ton, down 20-30 yuan / ton compared with that in the early stage The price in Fujian Province is 1100 yuan / ton, down 5.17% compared with that in the early stage The price in Jiangxi Province is 1010 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton compared with that in the early stage In terms of export, the average closing price of Dalian port is 1000 yuan / ton, with a decline rate of 50-70 yuan / ton In Qinhuangdao, the price is only 990 yuan / ton, with a significant decline compared with the previous period In other regions, Hebei price is 1000 yuan / ton, Shandong price is 1000 yuan / ton, Shanghai price is 1100 yuan / ton, Zhejiang price is 1070 yuan / ton, Hunan price is 1100 yuan / ton, Sichuan price is 1130 yuan / ton, with a significant decline compared with the previous period Drop The main reasons for the recent price fall are as follows: 1 The listing of new grain still depresses the market, and the price fall also arises from it 2 According to the news, Jilin grain group repurchased 1 million tons of corn in the export bidding in August, and determined the plan of importing 500000 tons of corn twice in succession Various market phenomena caused the aggravation of market bearish atmosphere and promoted the price drop Under the influence of these two main factors, the price of corn fell again However, behind these two main factors, we can feel that another force is becoming the operator of the market, that is, the policy factor How to develop the corn market in the later stage is also the fundamental determinant The main analysis includes the following points: 1 The policy factor determines the corn planting in the later stage It can be seen from the situation of corn planting in China in recent years that the direction of corn planting has changed under the guidance of policies In recent years, the government of China has continuously advocated the cultivation of high-yield and high-efficiency food crops, and soybean crops have become the first choice because of their high planting efficiency The "corn soybean" rotation plan has been issued accordingly, reducing the corn planting area, increasing the soybean planting scope and guiding policies The sown area of corn is affected, and the output is affected Last year, because the price of corn did not fall but rose during the listing period of autumn grain, and maintained a good momentum of development, on the contrary, the trend of soybean price was not satisfactory Although the state explicitly reduced the sown area of corn, but in the actual seeding process, farmers in some areas still reduced a limited amount of corn, but it can be said that farmers The "increase" of corn planting area is still insufficient compared with the "decrease" of national policy guidance Today's domestic corn market is facing pressure not only from the listing of new grain, but also from the new market situation -- the pressure brought by China's accession to the WTO is something we have to consider According to the new situation and new problems, this year, the state will further deepen the reform of the original grain circulation system, which includes stabilizing grain production capacity and promoting the development of agricultural structure It can be seen that the state has made a basic layout for the future grain sowing, and its central issue is to stabilize grain output, expand domestic demand, and increase the number of state-owned grain reserves As the main food variety in China, corn has become the top priority Due to the continuous harvest of jade rice in the previous years, and the market is not very good, sufficient stocks have been accumulated to meet the domestic demand Consumer demand is not a problem In the short term, the domestic corn supply is still greater than the demand Considering the demand changes in various aspects in the long term, the domestic corn supply is relatively tight Therefore, the country will not reduce the corn planting area significantly in the short term, and it is likely to reduce the corn planting area with low output rate and high planting cost, The planting situation of corn in the future will be determined according to the national policy 2 Policy factors determine the status of corn trade Export trade has always been a domestic government action In the first half of this year, China exported a total of 3.14 million tons of corn The sharp expansion of export volume is closely related to the active export organization of the state At the same time, due to the restrictions of the state government, only a small amount of corn for processing raw materials is allowed to be imported In the first half of this year, only more than 10000 tons of corn are imported It can be seen that the administrative measures of the state are particularly reflected here Obviously, recently, Jilin grain group repurchased 1 million tons of corn and China purchased 1 million tons of imported corn after China's accession to the world trade organization It is speculated that the main reason is that, on the one hand, after China's accession to the world trade organization, the high export subsidies of corn will be cancelled After the loss of high export subsidies, the domestic corn export seems to be a lonely boat without pulp, which is difficult to drive It is difficult to fulfill the export contract of corn before entering WTO In order to avoid loss, some export contracts are cancelled On the other hand, it is a kind of behavior of the government to purchase 500000 tons of imported corn twice in a short period of time, that is, to show sincerity to WTO members before entering WTO, and to observe the reaction of domestic market However, the two phenomena do not mean that China will change from a big corn exporter to a big importer after entering WTO From the current situation, China is still providing corn for export at a price as low as US $97 per ton In my opinion, due to China's natural conditions, the supply of corn in China is greater than the demand When China actively completes the import quota and has abundant domestic inventory, it will still Looking for opportunities to organize exports is only to cancel the export subsidy of US $40 after March next year, which is very difficult in the current form However, the Chinese government will not wait to die It is expected that the government will transform the form of export subsidy to win more trade opportunities In this regard, how the domestic corn trade operates in the later period will play a decisive role (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: