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Looking back at 2021, after a whole year of valuation digestion in the pharmaceutical sector, internal differentiation continued, and innovations continued to explore breakthroughs, and the industry gradually matured
.
As of December 31, 2021, the overall valuation of the medical and biological sector was 35 times, a decrease of 48.
7%
.
Now that the new year has begun, the industry is full of expectations and tensions.
Where will the pharmaceutical industry go this year? In the newly released research report, Pacific Securities believes that the investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry in 2022 are to focus on the constant changes and look for relatively certain opportunities.
Among them, the constant includes the increase in medical demand caused by the aging of the population-"medical insurance expenditures" "Increase" and the decrease in the proportion of the aging social moving population, the proportion of medical insurance contributions in the number of insured persons continues to decline-the contradiction of "declining medical insurance income" continues to exist, how to achieve the sustainable development goals of the medical insurance fund
.
In addition, under the centralized procurement policy, the basis for companies to maintain product prices and profit margins is the competitive landscape, and the dynamic and excellent competitive landscape lies in the ability to continuously develop products and product iterations
.
The research report issued by Xiangcai Securities pointed out that the pharmaceutical industry is a gold investment track
.
After 2022, it is necessary to look at the industry operation dimension, analyze the policy operation cycle in depth, and see the current position in order to find the medical and biological investment context
.
Among them, the pharmaceutical field will start a cycle of source innovation and drive upstream demand to explode, including the scientific service industry chain, reagents and consumables, high-end scientific instruments, and APIs, which are expected to benefit
.
It is expected that in the next five years, the construction of China's pharmaceutical innovation ecosystem will be based on the "13th Five-Year Plan" and will focus on the frontiers of science and technology, innovation systems, innovative industries, and people's health to achieve leap-forward breakthroughs in the overall goals
.
Southwest Securities believes that from the perspective of valuation, the valuation of the entire pharmaceutical industry may return to equilibrium in the future or even next year or the next three years
.
There are two core lines in 2022, one is to pass through medical insurance, and the other is to desensitize the epidemic
.
Among them, in terms of crossing medical insurance, under the pressure of normalization of the entire medical insurance, pharmaceutical companies continue to innovate and internationalize to provide full medical insurance.
In addition, you can also focus on screening some medical insurance immunization tracks, such as self-funded biological drugs, CXO, and equipment Etc.
; in terms of epidemic desensitization, such as the direction of short-term ultra-low vaccines, etc.
.
The agency believes that 2021 may be the first year of differentiation, and the future differentiation may become greater, especially from 2022
.
Going back to the overall valuation, the whole medicine will return to the logic of valuation equilibrium.
The basic valuation of the past three years has been that the entire center has gradually moved up
.
On the whole, the view of brokerage institutions is basically based on rationality and stability.
On the one hand, they are still optimistic about the rigid demand industry of medicine.
On the other hand, they believe that the pharmaceutical sector will also start from innovation and gradually move towards maturity and rationality
.
In terms of the innovative drug sector, after the publication of the document "Guiding Principles for Clinical Research and Development of Anti-tumor Drugs" in July 2021, the industry generally focused on the policy direction to eliminate "pseudo-innovation" and create "true innovation".
It will be a big spur for innovative drug companies.
In the future, some scattered, inefficient, repetitive and low-level R&D or elimination will be eliminated.
The capital market’s perception of innovative drug companies will also change, and more attention will be paid to the company’s own Innovative research and development capabilities
.
At the same time, in the context of fierce competition in some innovative drug tracks, it is expected that differentiation and internationalization will become a new trend
.
.
As of December 31, 2021, the overall valuation of the medical and biological sector was 35 times, a decrease of 48.
7%
.
Now that the new year has begun, the industry is full of expectations and tensions.
Where will the pharmaceutical industry go this year? In the newly released research report, Pacific Securities believes that the investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry in 2022 are to focus on the constant changes and look for relatively certain opportunities.
Among them, the constant includes the increase in medical demand caused by the aging of the population-"medical insurance expenditures" "Increase" and the decrease in the proportion of the aging social moving population, the proportion of medical insurance contributions in the number of insured persons continues to decline-the contradiction of "declining medical insurance income" continues to exist, how to achieve the sustainable development goals of the medical insurance fund
.
In addition, under the centralized procurement policy, the basis for companies to maintain product prices and profit margins is the competitive landscape, and the dynamic and excellent competitive landscape lies in the ability to continuously develop products and product iterations
.
The research report issued by Xiangcai Securities pointed out that the pharmaceutical industry is a gold investment track
.
After 2022, it is necessary to look at the industry operation dimension, analyze the policy operation cycle in depth, and see the current position in order to find the medical and biological investment context
.
Among them, the pharmaceutical field will start a cycle of source innovation and drive upstream demand to explode, including the scientific service industry chain, reagents and consumables, high-end scientific instruments, and APIs, which are expected to benefit
.
It is expected that in the next five years, the construction of China's pharmaceutical innovation ecosystem will be based on the "13th Five-Year Plan" and will focus on the frontiers of science and technology, innovation systems, innovative industries, and people's health to achieve leap-forward breakthroughs in the overall goals
.
Southwest Securities believes that from the perspective of valuation, the valuation of the entire pharmaceutical industry may return to equilibrium in the future or even next year or the next three years
.
There are two core lines in 2022, one is to pass through medical insurance, and the other is to desensitize the epidemic
.
Among them, in terms of crossing medical insurance, under the pressure of normalization of the entire medical insurance, pharmaceutical companies continue to innovate and internationalize to provide full medical insurance.
In addition, you can also focus on screening some medical insurance immunization tracks, such as self-funded biological drugs, CXO, and equipment Etc.
; in terms of epidemic desensitization, such as the direction of short-term ultra-low vaccines, etc.
.
The agency believes that 2021 may be the first year of differentiation, and the future differentiation may become greater, especially from 2022
.
Going back to the overall valuation, the whole medicine will return to the logic of valuation equilibrium.
The basic valuation of the past three years has been that the entire center has gradually moved up
.
On the whole, the view of brokerage institutions is basically based on rationality and stability.
On the one hand, they are still optimistic about the rigid demand industry of medicine.
On the other hand, they believe that the pharmaceutical sector will also start from innovation and gradually move towards maturity and rationality
.
In terms of the innovative drug sector, after the publication of the document "Guiding Principles for Clinical Research and Development of Anti-tumor Drugs" in July 2021, the industry generally focused on the policy direction to eliminate "pseudo-innovation" and create "true innovation".
It will be a big spur for innovative drug companies.
In the future, some scattered, inefficient, repetitive and low-level R&D or elimination will be eliminated.
The capital market’s perception of innovative drug companies will also change, and more attention will be paid to the company’s own Innovative research and development capabilities
.
At the same time, in the context of fierce competition in some innovative drug tracks, it is expected that differentiation and internationalization will become a new trend
.
