Where is the way of soybean industry in China (3)

Introduction: the price of the domestic market of cninfo continues to be low The soybean price in the international market is slightly lower than that in the previous year The soybean prices in the main soybean producing areas in North America and South America and Europe have been in a downward trend for three consecutive years The market price in China has been in a continuous downturn, but there is still a large gap compared with the international market SBC 1 US farm soybean price: as the country with the largest export of soybeans, the US farm price is generally the lowest price of soybeans The average price in 1997 was $274 / T, $230 / T in 1998 and $176 / T in 1999 In January 2000, the price was 170 US dollars / ton, lower than the price in the previous three years The annual average price was 173 US dollars / ton, the highest point was 191 US dollars / ton in May, the lowest was 164 US dollars / ton in August and October At the end of the year, it has recovered to 178 US dollars / ton, close to the average price in 1999 In the first ten days of September 2001, the Chicago period price was about 172 US dollars / ton SBC 2 Soybean price in central Illinois: 1997 is the highest in recent years The spot price of No.1 yellow soybean is 278 US dollars / ton, 233 US dollars / ton in 1998, 177 US dollars / ton in 1999, and 98 US dollars / ton in three years In 2000, the average price was 175 US dollars / ton, which rose to 181 US dollars / ton at the end of the year In 2001, the price began to fall, reaching 155 US dollars / ton in April and 162 US dollars / ton in May SBC 3 Brazil's soybean export FOB: the export FOB of Brazil, the second largest soybean exporter in the world, is also an important price in the international market It was 285 US dollars / ton in 1997, and has been declining year by year since then It was 240 US dollars / ton in 1998 and 184 US dollars / ton in 1999 In 2000, the average price was 183 US dollars / ton, which was obviously slightly higher than that of the United States, but it was also the third consecutive year of decline In December of that year, it had recovered to 195 US dollars / ton, which was significantly higher than that in December 1999 However, in May 2001, the price dropped to $159 / ton SBC 4 Export FOB of Argentine soybeans: it was 288 US dollars / ton in 1997, which was the highest export price in South America at that time In 1998, it dropped to 231 US dollars / ton, and in 1999, it dropped to 179 US dollars / ton The average price in 2000 was 180 US dollars / ton, basically the same as that in 1999, and it has recovered to 196 US dollars / ton in December The price in May 2001 was $156 / ton Rotterdam soybean CIF price: Rotterdam soybean CIF price is also a price of general concern in the international market In 1997, it was $307 / T, decreased to $259 / T in 1998 and to $225 / T in 1999 In 2000, the average CIF price of Rotterdam soybean was 208 US dollars / ton, which was also in a downward trend for three consecutive years, and rose to 212 US dollars / ton at the end of the year The price in May 2001 was $183 / ton In recent years, the price of domestic soybean market is the same as that of international market, which is in a low state According to the market situation in recent three years, the highest average wholesale price of domestic soybean was 3280 yuan / ton in August 1996, and the lowest was 1983 yuan / ton in December 1999 In the first half of 2001, the price of soybean once dropped below 2000 yuan / ton, especially in Heilongjiang Province, which is still around 1900 yuan / ton SBC soybean market price in China: in recent years, there has been a large fluctuation In 1997, the average price in the domestic market was over 3600 yuan / ton At the beginning of 2000, it dropped to 2370 yuan / ton, the lowest point in recent years Since this year, it has recovered slowly, reaching 2640 yuan / ton in August SBC soybean futures price in China: because soybean commodity is one of the few varieties listed in the futures market, and because the price fluctuates greatly, it is closely connected with the international market, so it is also one of the most active commodities in the futures market, and the price changes in recent years are quite large The high price of the futures market in recent years appeared in 1996 and 1997 At that time, the highest price of the futures market was 3475 yuan / ton in August 1996 After 1999, the price was in a low state In June 1999, the soybean futures price fell to 1785 yuan / ton Since 2001, the price of soybean is still low In April, it fell below 1900 yuan / ton In July and August, the price picked up slightly However, according to the basic situation that the overall supply exceeds the demand and the inventory level is high in the international market, the price recovery will be very limited SBC compared with the international market, the soybean price in China has no advantage After China's accession to WTO, the microclimate of the domestic market is completely shrouded in the global market China's traders and market participants are not only concerned about the production situation in the northeast, but also begin to pay more attention to whether there will be dry hot winds in the Midwest of the United States, as well as the climate conditions in Brazil and Argentina The weather situation affects the output of North America and South America The output determines the rise and fall of Chicago futures price, and then affects the FOB prices of American export ports and the CIF prices of Asian ports The coastal port price in China is as important as that in Northeast China, and with the absolute advantage of imported soybeans in the domestic market, the importance of port price will be further enhanced, and the situation of "the army of Northeast China's main production areas" will be under pressure.