Where is the hard time for China's pharmaceutical industry in 2019 when old dividends are exhausted?

there are many signs that the pharmaceutical industry may really be harder than it's been before in 2020. It is not only a symbolic beginning of the new decade, is the old dividend to eat up the year, but also in recent years the pharmaceutical industry to change the volume of qualitative transformation of the year. Admitting difficulties is not a show of discouragement, but also allows us to face up to the challenges ahead and have the courage to make painful but correct decisions.The company's big BOSS once said on the inside: Colleagues, 2020 is a very challenging year, we may encounter unprecedented difficulties ... Everyone laughed when they didn't finish, and the serious atmosphere suddenly became very cheerful. Because at the end of each year, the boss is such a warning to the management team, although every year there are stumbling, but so far every year is good, this will not be a shout "wolf is coming" ah? People who have been in the medical circle for more than twenty years are not scared, so everyone laughs involuntarily.But there are many signs that the pharmaceutical industry may actually be harder than it has been before in 2020. It is not only a symbolic beginning of the new decade, is the old dividend to eat up the year, but also in recent years the pharmaceutical industry to change the volume of qualitative transformation of the year. Admitting difficulties is not a show of discouragement, and let us face up to the challenges ahead and have the courage to make painful but correct decisions.I think the difficulties of the pharmaceutical industry next year are mainly reflected in these four aspects.First, the stock business continues to lose.Whether for production or circulation enterprises. The biggest challenge is the national expansion and normalization of volume procurement, a round of over-consistent varieties prices are expected to drop significantly, the third round of the national volume procurement policy seems more likely to come up with lower prices and more fragmented market, Wuhan Jiangxi Hebei and other places on the non-consistency and even self-costed varieties of the volume of procurement pilot notice to think about is even more frightening. Because of the huge health-care cuts and patient advocacy effects brought about by the price cuts, the government's full-scale efforts and high-profile publicity have been enough to dispel the illusion of a slowdown in some medical patients.Reasonable drug policy, focus on monitoring drug catalog and standardization of Chinese medicine prescription department will further reduce the stock of auxiliary drug business, in fact, to clinical treatment path, medical insurance payment standards and DRGs as the first control means will make hospitals and doctors on all prescription drugs will decline.Regardless of the winning bid, a large chunk of the pharmaceutical industry's stock business has evaporated since then, and the meager gross margins of both pharmaceutical commercial and retail pharmacies will continue to decline. Equipment and high-value consumables two-vote system and with the large probability of procurement will also land in 2020, a large number of gray dealers living space is squeezed, its gray marketing costs will be difficult to account for, high-value supplies to the enterprise brought about by the rolling profits also disappeared by most.Stock business is the pharmaceutical industry accumulated for many years before the formation of cash cattle products, after the investment period would have been the bag for Ann's harvest season, and now the old business will go, where is the new?Second, the growth of new varieties is not easy.The continued loss of mature varieties naturally places expectations on innovative medicines. At present, the state's support for innovative drugs in research and development, approval and access is also unprecedented, but this does not mean that innovative drugs can make up for the loss of stock business.The first is the blowout of China's innovative drugs, popular targets or biosypoles have a dozen to dozens of research and development. Given China's high success rate on the market, innovative drugs that flock to the market can quickly become a tread-on each other: state negotiations, or even competitive negotiations, begin at the start of the listing. Ultra-low-cost access to innovative hepatitis C drugs, sugar-lowering drugs and tumor-targeted drugs almost seals the growth space of later winners, unless new visitors are significantly better at clinical data or business ability than this round of Medicare finalists, although this is also very difficult to come by.In exchange for an average 60% drop in Health Insurance access eligibility, it is necessary to achieve rapid national market coverage in order to make sufficient profits during the patent period. Not to say that most innovative pharmaceutical companies have neither the ability to do business nor the financial capacity to cover the whole country, even at great expense to hire hundreds of thousands of sales force will find the market more difficult to cultivate than in the previous decade: either you are not a special effects drug, or abolish "drug-based medicine" "After the hospital into the new drug power is seriously inadequate, doctors feel that the old medicine is cheap and familiar, many special drugs also need to do professional doctor concept education and accompanying diagnostic support, these are a lot of marketing investment, neither small companies can do, nor large companies can easily bear.In the past three years near the varieties of medical insurance, in addition to curt bead single resistance, beval bead single resistance, leizhu single resistance and several other clinical urgent needs, clinical concept education of good oncology drugs to manufacturers to bring rich profits, many varieties of medical insurance after a year of rapid growth after the old into the platform period. Although there are a few new cancer drugs in the pre-health insurance sales, but most from the lack of sufficient clinical evidence of hyper-adaptive drugs, and other targets of new drugs in 2020-2021 after a large number of market, now the market for popular cancer drugs will quickly turn to the Red Sea, other rheumatoid immunity, neurology or rare disease drugs market payment capacity or concept education more backward, related new drugs in recent years can not become money printing machine.Third, the pharmaceutical industry is looking forward to the new platform did not appear.In previous years, the industry had high expectations for the outflow of prescriptions after the "zero price difference for hospital drugs". However, in a few years of practice, the scale of prescription outflow than in previous years, although expanded, but still limited to self-funded new drugs, neither the amount of the release of the participants to bring huge returns. Although prescription outflow is the general trend, but to public hospitals completely give up all kinds of indirect income of drugs is still a long process, must account for more than 80-90% of hospital income before the large-scale outflow of drugs. Even if this day is not the time when pharmaceutical companies can freely do things, payer will continue to control the out-of-hospital drug sales channels, not to create incremental value of out-of-hospital pharmacies only rely on the transaction link or can not make money.Similarly there are pharmaceutical e-commerce, Internet hospitals and into big health, hospital mergers and acquisitions, doctors groups and other new models that had high hopes for the new platform did not give drug companies a clear contribution, either too early, or catch the wrong medicine, not to say still in the trial and error period of various innovations. Fourth, the pharmaceutical industry has not come up with the courage and methods of internal change. Our marketing or the past, too dependent on ground troops and customer relations, non-compliant sales are still widespread, do fiscal and tax compliance surface articles to piece together the so-called evidence chain of manufacturers, many pharmaceutical companies just hope that the pharmaceutical policy relaxed or loopholes, keen to chase a variety of popular concepts or models, the heart still think of not paying or underpaid can quickly and safely through the transition period, the pharmaceutical industry has not yet appeared more obvious closure and turn the phenomenon, are not enough. Even if there are enterprises want to do a larger marketing model changes, will find a large number of old employees can not keep up with the pace is difficult to eliminate, pioneering talent is not only difficult to find, come is not good to survive. We all know that the old road can not reach the new world, but the old road is still crowded with people waiting. China's pharmaceutical industry cannot stay out of the world's economy in 2020 as the world's economies face the challenges of trade protection and economic stagnation. The industry is hard, but it's hard for everyone. 2020 is a watershed in the pharmaceutical industry, but also a year of great differentiation of pharmaceutical enterprises, can solve 1-2 of the above-mentioned industry common problems of pharmaceutical companies may get a ticket to the future, because the surviving enterprises are eligible to divide into the Chinese pharmaceutical market continued to make a big cake.
(E drug manager)