When the price of grain and oil rises, who is happy and who is worried?

Introduction: two days ago, when I was eating at the breakfast stand, I heard someone say that the price of the fried dough sticks had increased Once asked, sure enough, the price of grain and oil in the market has increased, and the range is not small According to the hotel, the price of a jin of pork has increased from a little over 6 yuan to 8 yuan, and the price of salad oil has increased from a little over 3 yuan to about 4 yuan, with an increase of about 30% It is reported that since the first half of this year, China's agricultural product prices have risen in an all-round way, the first time in nearly six years Some media learned from the grain department that since mid October, the price of edible oil in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hubei and other provinces has been at the peak in recent years At the beginning of FTM's hearing of the price increase of grain and oil, people showed more calm and common feelings The panic that China had just released the price of grain and oil no longer existed However, from a longer-term perspective and a deeper level to look at this issue, the connotation of which should be more than this, chewing up quite a taste FTM farmers have finally seen the price rise of FTM in China's reform and opening up for more than 20 years After the release of the energy of the joint production and contract responsibility system, the farmers' income has been hovering at a relatively low level Not only is the period of growing grain long, but also they hardly make money Low income of farmers has become a "persistent disease" that the Chinese government has been committed to overcome Li Peilin, deputy director of the Institute of Sociology of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, FTM, said that China's per capita GDP has now exceeded US $1000, but the gap between the rich and the poor has not been narrowed but continues to expand It is estimated that the per capita income of Chinese farmers will not reach the level of urban per capita income in 2000 until 20 years later, that is to say, the development gap between urban and rural areas in China is more than 20 years In terms of increasing farmers' income, low grain price has always been a headache for farmers At present, after deducting factors such as fertilizer, water and electricity, tax and so on, the purchase price of grain is almost left, and the labor cost of farmers is not included here Generally, the labor cost of farmers is included in the profit Of course, this may be the rural areas with better agricultural conditions Some of the rural areas with poor agricultural conditions lose money at all For this reason, FTM cannot say that this price increase is not a good thing for farmers Although this situation may not last for a long time, it still feels a little comfort and even excitement for farmers who deal with land Whether FTM is a market factor or related to food security, there are many complex factors to improve farmers' agricultural income For example, low agricultural income is caused by low agricultural efficiency and high planting cost In many rural areas of China, there are still manual farming methods It is not uncommon for a woman to carry her child in a cotton field FTM, however, we cannot hope to solve the problem of farmers only by raising the price of grain Because, the food problem needs to consider whether it is not only in the interests of farmers, but also in line with the law of the market and the food security strategy of the whole country FTM has a very consistent view on the explanation of the price increase of grain, oil and food Data shows that in 1998, China's grain output dropped from a record 512.3 billion kg to 457.06 billion kg in 2002, a decrease of 10.78% On this basis, this year's summer grain output decreased for the fourth consecutive year, and the output of 96.22 billion kg decreased by 2.4% year on year The main reason for the reduction of grain production in FTM China is not that all the rural areas have been urbanized and the agricultural structure has been adjusted In fact, the crux of agricultural production reduction lies in the linear decline of cultivated land area In 1998, China's grain crops reached a peak of 113.78 million hectares in the 1980s, and by 2002, they had decreased to 103.891 million hectares, a decrease of 8.7% The process of FTM cultivated land reduction is not the result of rural urbanization, non market factors lead to the waste and desolation of land resources In the past half century, the national soil erosion has destroyed more than 40 million mu of arable land, causing economic losses of more than 10 billion yuan FTM, however, is more difficult to prevent natural disasters and control man-made disasters In order to develop the regional economy, the so-called "enclosure development" in various towns, counties, cities and provinces has also turned large areas of cultivated land from the hands of farmers to industrialists, and even in some areas, there is a serious waste of "encircling but not opening" development zones Although there is no data on the impact of this development strategy on the reduction of cultivated land, the earlier 10 inspection teams formed by five major ministries and commissions to conduct a large-scale thorough investigation of land conditions in 31 provinces, regions and cities in China also reveals the seriousness of violations The reason why FTM has such a large-scale national action and the suspension of approval of development zones is generally interpreted as the Chinese government's governance of economic overheating, but from another point of view, protecting cultivated land resources and focusing on food security are also in silence According to the analysis of FTM experts, since 2000, China's grain consumption demand has been between 480 million and 490 million tons, and the gap between production and demand in that year is generally between 25 million and 35 million tons There are only two ways to solve the gap, one is to use the stock of grain, the other is to arrange a large number of imports However, the stock of FTM is limited, which can only be solved for a while, not for a lifetime It is said that China's grain stockpile can be dug up for up to two years without the old grain The import is not only subject to the world grain production and trade volume, but also the fluctuation of international grain price and any disturbance of international situation will affect China's food security and even stability FTM is more important for China than any other country, and there should be no mistakes Because China has the largest population The food problem is an unbearable problem for China China has a population of 1.2 billion, which is expected to continue to grow to 1.6 billion after 20 or 30 years At that time, with the decrease of cultivated land, the improvement of people's living standards and the growing demand for food, the huge pressure of food security may really come out FTM