Wheat prices will rise steadily in the future

Introduction: Recently, after analyzing the production and inventory of wheat at home and abroad, the insiders believe that the price of wheat in the future will be stable RKA I, yield and planting area will decline According to the report from the national grain and oil information center, the total sown area of wheat in China is expected to be 22.3 million hectares in 2003, down 5.11% compared with the same period of last year This is the fourth year in which the planting area of wheat in China has been continuously reduced The average yield per hectare is expected to be 3950 kg, with a year-on-year growth of 2.25% Among them, the yield of winter wheat is expected to be 80.59 million tons, The year-on-year decrease is 2.96%; the planting area will be reduced to 20.4 million hectares, down 5.12%; the planting area of spring wheat is expected to be 1.9 million hectares, and the output is expected to be 5.8 million tons Due to less precipitation in last winter in RKA, the drought in Shandong, Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and other parts of the country has not been fundamentally alleviated, which makes the growth of winter wheat seedlings generally worse than last year In addition, the diseases and insect pests in some main wheat production areas are also more serious, which will have an impact on the wheat production in China this year RKA II The inventory has been reduced year by year From the external environment, the global wheat output in 2002 / 2003 was 5669.3 billion tons, 2.1 percentage points lower than that in the previous year, the demand was 5954.4 billion tons, 126.9 billion tons higher than that in 2001 / 2002, an increase of 2.2%, and the gap between supply and demand was 285.1 billion tons, which should be supplemented by the inventory It is expected that this will be the same in China in 2002 / 2003 The annual total output of domestic wheat is 91 million tons, consumption is 105.614 million tons, and the gap between supply and demand is 14.614 million tons The continuous decline of inventory is improving the situation of heavy inventory pressure, which is conducive to the rise of wheat price RKA III high price operation in the international market It is understood that the price of hard winter red wheat No.2 (protein content: 11%) shipped from Meiwan in March arrived at China's port after duty paid is 1800 yuan / ton, far higher than the price of high-quality wheat in China The high price of imported wheat is not only conducive to inhibiting the influx of imported wheat, On the whole, although the domestic grain auction in the future will have an impact on the price of wheat and rice, the market as a whole has driven up the price of high-quality wheat in Huanghuai, North China This week, the price of high-quality wheat rose in Huanghuai area of North China, with an average increase of 20 yuan / ton, and 30 yuan / ton in some areas After four months of stability, the price of high-quality wheat began to rise, mainly due to the following reasons: RKA 1, the fourth consecutive year of production reduction of winter wheat has become the consensus of the market, The situation of wheat supply exceeding demand will continue to be eased, and the psychological expectation of market bullish will be enhanced RKA 2 The state started the second large-scale warehouse clearance and inventory inspection, and the demand for replenishment of reserves increased, as well as the market demand RKA 3, flour processing enterprises in the expectation of rising prices, also correspondingly increased the purchase of wheat, especially wheat with better quality In RKA 4 and January February, China imported only 33600 tons of wheat, a decrease of 82.3% over the same period last year The imported wheat remained at a fairly low level, and the market demand for domestic high-quality wheat maintained a growth momentum, resulting in the price rise of high-quality wheat Rka   Rka