Wheat market is expected to rise after short-term correction and consolidation

Introduction: in the previous period, as flour consumption gradually entered the off-season, the demand weakened Farmers and grain storage enterprises in the production areas have increased their efforts to sell surplus grain, increased market supply and balanced supply and demand of wheat At the same time, grain enterprises have a lot of inventory, the purchase quantity is relatively reduced, and the selling volume of aged grain wheat in various regions has also increased Therefore, the domestic wheat market is under heavy pressure in the short term, and the market price has entered the stage of rising and stabilizing in the short term From the perspective of the future market, after a short-term fall in wheat prices, it is still possible to rise again The main analysis is as follows: the change of UFG output in the market UFG China is the largest producer and consumer of wheat in the world In recent years, with the adjustment of agricultural structure and the reduction of wheat planting area, the output has decreased year by year From the perspective of national macro-control policies on agricultural planting structure, with the increasing implementation of the policy, coupled with the constraints of weather and drought, the national wheat planting area has been reduced year after year According to the national grain and oil information center, China's winter wheat planting area in 2002 / 2003 is 20.4 million hectares, down 5.12% again compared with the previous year; the wheat output is expected to be 80.59 million tons, down 2.96% compared with last year, which will become the fourth consecutive year's decline in domestic winter wheat output In 2002 / 2003, the planting area of wheat was 45.77 million mu in Shandong Province, which was 6.6 million mu less than that in the previous year The reduction of sowing area indicates the decline of output in the later period, which is self-evident for the promotion of market price In recent 10 years, most of China's imported wheat has entered the national reserve, and the amount of imported wheat in the market is very small In recent years, part of the demand for high-quality wheat in China is mainly met by the stock of imported wheat sold by the central reserve, the other part is replaced by the high-quality wheat produced in China, and some domestic flour processing enterprises also import part of high-quality wheat by the way of feed processing According to the general agreement on Tariffs and trade, in the next few years, China's import of wheat will still show an increasing trend However, with the decrease of global wheat yield and the improvement of domestic cultivation technology and provenance quality, domestic wheat is to a certain extent free from the fierce impact after China's accession to the WTO The export of UFG depends on the market In 2002, China imported 600000 tons of edible wheat and exported 690000 tons, the first net export year in history This indicates that the quality of Chinese wheat has been improved by leaps and bounds, and gradually recognized and accepted by the international market This historic leap has a profound impact on wheat production in China The stock level of UFG is one of the decisive factors that affect the price of domestic wheat market In 1997, China's wheat stock reached a record of 107.41 million tons In recent years, China's wheat production has been continuously reduced, and there is a gap between supply and demand However, due to the increase in the number of domestic inferior and aged wheat in recent years, the wheat inventory is seriously overstocked Although the inventory has been consumed for three consecutive years, the inventory is still high However, the inhibition effect on the wheat market has been gradually reduced In recent years, the State Food Administration issued the notice on the investigation of grain inventory nationwide (Guo Liang Diao 2003-4), which decided to carry out the investigation of grain inventory nationwide to ensure the authenticity of national grain inventory and provide accurate and reliable basis for grain macro-control and grain circulation system reform The scope and contents of the investigation include: state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises in all provinces (districts and cities), warehouses directly under China Grain Reserve Management Corporation and grain warehouses under China Grain and oil group corporation by the end of March 2003, including central grain reserve, local grain reserve and commodity turnover grain In addition to verifying the quantity, we should also investigate the quality of grain stored by the central government It was pointed out that the circular initially showed that the state doubted whether the current food supply could meet the market demand in a timely manner At the same time, the stable increase of wheat price in the first few months of 2003 also indicates that the balance between supply and demand of grain in China is reversing In essence, this has signalled a general increase in food prices due to the reduction of food stocks From October 2002, the wheat price in the international market has been on the decline trend As a reference to the international wheat price, the CBOT wheat price has also been on the decline So far, the lowest price has reached 279.5 cents / bushel, close to the lowest price of 255.4 cents / bushel before the 2002 price rise Under such a weak international wheat price, it is not easy for the domestic wheat price to reach a new high According to the data, since the beginning of March, the price has risen more than 100 points, and most contracts have reached a new high Although the export situation is optimistic, it can not support the domestic futures price to go out of the independent market completely deviated from the international market Therefore, after the domestic wheat futures price reaches a new high again, the callback pressure is obvious The futures market plays a guiding role in the spot market, the rapid rise of the futures market and the increase of the aftermarket pressure form a certain degree of resistance to the upward operation of the spot market, but the high rise of the futures price plays a leading role in the spot market According to the supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture in March, the global wheat supply and demand situation in 2002 / 2003 has little change compared with last month's forecast Among them, the production reduction of 500000 tons of Australian wheat basically offset the increase of Iran's production Although Iran's wheat production has led to a decrease in its imports, this month's forecast for global wheat imports is largely unchanged, offset by an increase in EU wheat imports The decline in US wheat exports was offset by an increase in EU exports Despite the production reduction of aomai, the supply of aomai in 2002 / 03 is still higher than the forecast of last month due to the high initial inventory and import volume It can be seen from the report that the fundamentals of the international market have laid a steady market trend In March, the price of 11% protein content of American No/ Tons, the high price of imported wheat, plays a positive role in curbing the large amount of wheat imports and promoting the export of wheat in China UFG in general, the continuous reduction of domestic wheat production and the continuous increase of consumption have widened the gap between supply and demand and reduced the inventory This will provide the basic guarantee for the price rise of wheat market, together with the support of policy factors and other auxiliary factors such as the high price of international market, the domestic wheat price is expected to rise again in the later period Ufg