What was the third-quarter performance of vaccine stocks that instantly evaporated hundreds of billions of market value?

In 2021, the stock price of the new crown vaccine concept stock plummeted by more than 50% from a high point.
In the entire third quarter alone, the market value of the vaccine sector lost more than 100 billion yuan
.
As the first round of domestic new crown vaccine vaccination is coming to an end, and the purchase price of vaccines has fallen, and the emergence of new crown specific drugs one after another, will the previous enthusiasm for vaccine stocks in the secondary market continue? Today we look at the performance of vaccine stocks through the three quarterly reports of Watson Biology, Zhifei Biology and Cansino
.
The overall performance of the vaccine sector is outstanding.
From the perspective of financial data, the three quarterly reports of the vaccine sector have relatively outstanding performance
.
Among them, Cansino's operating income reached 3.
086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 542 times; Zhifei biological operating income reached 21.
829 billion yuan, an increase of 97.
54% year-on-year; Watson's operating income reached 2.
129 billion yuan, an increase of 35.
90% year-on-year
.
Chart 1: Source of operating income: From the financial data of the third quarter report on the company’s official website, CanSino’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters increased by 858.
36% year-on-year, and Zhifei Bio’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters With a year-on-year increase of 239.
05%, Watson Bio is the only vaccine-listed company whose performance has declined.
The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in the first three quarters fell by 16.
33% year-on-year
.
Chart 2: Source of net profit attributable to the parent: From the financial data of the third quarterly report on the company's official website, Cansino has a gross profit margin of 66.
08% in the first three quarters and a net profit margin of 43.
23%; Zhifei Bio-tech has a gross profit margin of 54.
01% in the first three quarters and a net profit.
The interest rate reached 38.
5%, gross profit margin and net profit margin increased significantly compared with 2020; Watson Bio's gross profit margin was 87.
32%, a slight increase from 2020, and the net profit margin was 22.
75%, which was a substantial drop from 34.
56% in the same period last year
.
Chart 3: Gross profit margin and net profit margin.
Source: From the company's official website, Watson Biotech and Zhifei Biotech both have significantly reduced sales expenses.
Consino, because of the new crown vaccine, the sales cost is 64 million yuan, and the sales expense ratio is 2.
08 %
.
In terms of management expenses, Watson Bio's management expense ratio is 9.
49%, which is an increase from 8.
35% in the same period in 2020; Zhifei Biology's management expense ratio is 0.
92%, which is a slight decrease from 1.
28%% in the same period in 2020.
; Cansino management expenses are 141 million, and the management expense ratio is 4.
57%
.
From the perspective of R&D expenses, Cansino R&D expenses are 656 million yuan, and the R&D expense ratio is 21.
25%, which is a substantial increase compared to the same period in 2020; Zhifei Biological R&D expenses are 240 million yuan, and the R&D expense ratio is 0.
92%, compared with 2020.
Over the same period, there was a slight decrease; Watson's research and development expenses were 335 million yuan, and the research and development expense ratio was 15.
75%, which was a substantial increase from 9.
81% in the same period in 2020
.
Chart 4: Periodic expense ratio Source: Official website financial report R&D pipeline status Watson Bio-R&D pipeline status July 2021, the bivalent HPV vaccine is included in the list of priority review varieties; the nine-valent HPV vaccine is undergoing various preliminary phases of phase III clinical research Preparation work: The new coronavirus mRNA vaccine jointly developed with the partner is in the phase III clinical research phase, and the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (chimpanzee adenovirus vector) is in the phase II clinical research phase; the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine independently developed by Shanghai Zerun ( CHO cell) is currently in the phase II clinical research phase; the research and development of other Watson Biologics products in the clinical research and preclinical research phases is progressing as planned
.
The continuous advancement of innovative product lines will lay a solid foundation for Watson Biotech's long-term development
.
Figure 5: Details of Watson Bio's products in the registration and application stage.
Source: Watson Bio's official website, Zhongkang Industrial Capital Research Center Zhifei Biological R&D pipeline situation 2021Q1-Q3 Zhifei R&D costs 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.
76%, The R&D expense ratio is 1.
10%
.
Mycobacterium vaccae for injection (preventive microcard) obtained the drug registration certificate in June 2021, becoming the next major self-developed product of Zhifei Bio, and it is expected to become a new driving force for business growth in the future
.
Zhifei Biology currently has 16 clinical projects, of which the influenza virus split vaccine and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine have completed clinical phase III trials
.
Recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (CHO cells) (ZF2001, has been used for emergency), 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells), freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) and four The split influenza virus vaccine is in clinical phase III
.
In preclinical 10 projects, covering the field of hepatitis B treatment, foot and mouth disease, rotavirus, shingles, encephalitis and so on
.
Figure 6: Status of Zhifei Biological Research and Development Pipeline Source: Zhifei Biological Official Website, Kangsino R&D Pipeline of Zhongkang Industrial Capital Research Center After the outbreak of the new crown in 2020, Cansino cooperated with the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences to develop a recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (type 5) Adenovirus vector), the vaccine will be the first to start clinical trials in the world in March 2020, and the clinical trials have progressed smoothly
.
In February 2021, the company's new crown vaccine successively obtained emergency use authorizations from Mexico and Pakistan, and obtained China's conditional listing approval on February 25, 2021.
The new crown vaccine started the company's commercialization process
.
Cansino is an innovative vaccine company with advanced technology in China.
The research and development of the new crown vaccine demonstrates its strong technical strength.
The follow-up product pipeline is rich, and a variety of innovative vaccine products are ready to be launched
.
CanSino currently has a number of blockbuster products, with huge pipeline potential
.
The company's product pipeline includes a number of innovative vaccine products against new coronavirus pneumonia, Ebola virus disease, tuberculosis, meningitis, DPT, and herpes zoster
.
Among them, Ebola virus disease vaccine Ad5-EBOV and new coronavirus vaccine Ad5-nCoV have been approved for marketing; meningococcal vaccines MCV2 and MCV4 have been submitted and accepted by NDA; DTcP, booster vaccines, and PBPV have completed phase I/Ia clinical trials.
PCV13i has entered phase III clinical trials, and the tuberculosis booster vaccine is undergoing clinical phase I trials
.
At present, two of the company's innovative vaccines have been approved for listing.
As the company's vaccines are commercialized one by one in the future, the company is expected to make huge profits and flourish
.
Figure 7: CanSino R&D pipeline situation Source: CanSino official website, the impact of new crown specific drugs from China Kang Industrial Capital Research Center on vaccine stocks In October, Watson Bio, Zhifei Bio, CanSino and other new crown vaccine concept stocks all appeared to be certain However, the impact of Merck and other new crown-specific drugs is still relatively limited, especially the impact on China's new crown vaccine.
Its impact is almost negligible.
There is no need to amplify the impact of Merck's new crown oral drugs on the new crown vaccine concept stocks.

.
Even if the new crown specific medicine is launched and promoted, it cannot replace the vaccine, but more as a supplement
.
From the perspective of the course of treatment, vaccines mainly play a preventive role before illness, while new crown specific drugs are used after illnesses.
Preventive vaccines and therapeutic drugs are two completely different concepts
.
Moreover, as a nucleotide analogue, this drug hinders virus reproduction through gene replication
.
It is still doubtful whether long-term use in the future will cause gene mutations .
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the world has actually reached a consensus: mankind will coexist with this common enemy for a long time
.
Vaccines are still the most reliable way to protect against viruses
.
The emergence of new crown-specific drugs is more of a supplement to the vaccine, rather than a replacement
.
At present, the domestic vaccination rate in China has exceeded 80%.
According to the national epidemic prevention requirements and vaccination policy, the vaccination rate will be further increased by the end of 2021, reaching approximately 85%
.
The emergence of specific drugs, in countries with high vaccination rates, especially China, may have relatively narrow application scenarios and have relatively limited impact on vaccine stocks
.