What is the mystery behind the "two rises and two falls" of feed price in 2018?

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Just yesterday, the industry was forwarding the news of feed price reduction, which is better than the pig breeding market that has been losing money, but also shows the feed market, especially the weak consumption of pig feed Ruonan summarized the news of feed price rise and fall in the past half year of 2018 Since the beginning of March after the Spring Festival, feed price has experienced two rises and two falls, and each price Grid fluctuations are closely related to the rise and fall of raw material prices Take a look at the specific situation of these four feed price changes! At the beginning of March, RDM increased by 400-500 yuan / ton, resulting in feed price increase of 25-200 yuan / ton RDM After the Spring Festival, the raw material market soared all the way, leading to price hikes of factories returning to work after the festival Hengxing, Haida, twin, Xiangda, Nanbao, jinxinnong and other enterprises, including aquatic products, pig feed and poultry feed, rose almost without exception RDM RDM can be seen from the above analysis that after the Spring Festival, major raw materials such as corn, soybean meal and cottonseed meal have risen one after another: RDM corn: the average price of corn in China is 1854 yuan / ton, 37 yuan / ton higher than before; RDM soybean meal: the price of soybean meal is 3200-3300 yuan / ton, 400-500 yuan / ton higher than before, up 15% The most direct cause of soybean meal price skyrocketing is that soybean price continues to break through the high point; RDM other meal: driven by the sharp increase of soybean meal, the prices of other meal, rapeseed meal and cottonseed meal increased by 250 yuan / ton and 160 yuan / ton respectively At the beginning of April, the price of feed increased by 50-125 yuan / ton RDM RDM due to the soybean tariff imposed in the Sino US trade war At the beginning of April, Luzhou hope, Dongfang hope, Cargill, twins, Dabei agriculture, datianong, Yunnan Guanglian livestock and poultry and other large enterprises announced feed price increases of about 50-125 yuan / ton RDM RDM on April 4, according to CCTV news, the tariff Committee of the State Council decided to impose a 25% tariff on 14 categories and 106 goods, including soybeans, automobiles and airplanes, originating in the United States Only one soybean is enough to shake the whole feed market, because more than 80% of China's soybeans are imported, and soybean meal is the most important protein raw material in feed, which has the greatest impact on all kinds of feed, so the soybean trade war led the wave of price rise in early April At the beginning of RDM may, the price of raw materials decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton At the beginning of RDM may, due to the price of raw materials decreased, Jiangxi Zhongwang, dabiannong, Zhengda, Cohen, Zhengda, TangRenShen, aonong, Huanong Hengqing and other major domestic feed enterprises reduced their prices by 50-100 yuan / ton Main reasons for RDM: in April, the price of corn, soybean meal, fish meal and other main raw materials dropped sharply RDM corn: the price in Northeast China fell by 50-120 yuan / ton on March, while that in North China was relatively small; the price of processing enterprises in Shandong fell by 20-80 yuan / ton on March, while that in South China was significantly lower, falling by 100-130 yuan / ton on March RDM soybean meal: compared with the highest price, the biggest drop of soybean meal in April was 350 yuan / ton RDM super steam fish meal: compared with the beginning of the month, the decline rate reached 1600 yuan / ton At the beginning of June, the price of RDM raw materials fell again, and feed prices were reduced by about 50 yuan / ton RDM RDM just entered June Feed enterprises such as Dabei agriculture, twins, Tang Renshen and Cohen sent out price reduction notices, and some pig feed materials were reduced by 50 yuan / ton RDM: what's the reason for the recent feed price hike? 1 RDM: feed raw material price drop According to the research of Huitong data of China feed industry information network, the monthly average price of soybean meal in May was 3005 yuan / ton, compared with 3255 yuan / ton in April, down 250 yuan / ton, down 7.66%; In May, the national average spot price of RDM corn fell 30.59 yuan / ton month on month, 1.67% month on month; the price of RDM super steam fish meal market decreased about 400-600 yuan / ton in May; the price of RDM lysine and methionine: the price of these two amino acids decreased about 1.0 yuan / kg at the end of May compared with the beginning of the month; RDM VA, VE: the decline of vitamin is nearly half, VA from 900-1100 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month to 480-580 yuan / kg at the end of the month, ve from 68-80 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month to 38-45 yuan / kg at the end of the month; RDM 2 Weak consumption of feed market RDM according to JCI, in May, the overall feed consumption level in China decreased by 15% ~ 20% on a month on month basis, in which the decline of pig feed was generally around 20% (30% on a month on month basis of pig premix); poultry feed continued to maintain a small growth trend, while egg feed consumption was better than meat feed In addition, due to frequent heavy rainfall in southern China in May, the number of diseased shrimps in some areas increased significantly, while environmental protection factors curbed fishery cultivation, and the growth rate of aquatic material consumption in May was not as high as that in the same period of previous years As shown in the figure: RDM 3, the continuous loss of pig breeding, and the decline of the stock RDM According to the latest data released by the 400 monitoring counties designated by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the stock of pigs fell 0.8% month on month in April, down 1.5% year on year; while the stock of sows that can be bred fell 1.4% month on month, down 2.1% year on year RDM summary: every time the feed price of RDM goes up and down, it can't be separated from the change of raw material price In the first half of 2018, how big the change of raw material is? It can be seen from the following table: RDM RDM RDM RDM RDM from two main raw materials, corn went through a pull up to 1899 yuan / ton before the middle of April, and then began to go down all the way; From the end of March to the beginning of April, soybean meal increased by 300 yuan / ton due to the 25% tariff imposed on soybean during the Sino US trade war; In addition to the large amount of RDM, the price fluctuation of vitamin market is not small The sharp drop of VA is due to the recovery of BASF production and the improvement of VA supply The decrease of VE price is due to the entry of new manufacturers, such as nengte and haijianuo, which accelerate the decline of vitamin market price RDM from the demand side, the loss of pig breeding also makes the breeding market gradually start to lose production capacity, the demand for feed and raw materials is also weakened, so the competition among major feed manufacturers is gradually intensified, which is also part of the reason for the decline of feed price RDM (this paper is compiled by China feed industry information network from Huitong data, Xinmu network, Boya Hexun, aquatic frontier, etc.) RDM (author: Ruonan)