Weekly Futures Market (8.30-9.3)

Methanol: Steady and rising

Last week, the methanol futures market repeatedly tested the support of the 40-day moving average.

In terms of spot market, the market is organized and operating, and price fluctuations are relatively limited

In terms of operating rate, as of September 2, the overall methanol plant load was 70.

In terms of inventory, last week, the methanol inventory in coastal areas shrank to 926,000 tons, significantly lower than the level of the same period last year by 27.

In terms of demand, the average operating load of coal (methanol)-to-olefins plants dropped to 77.

On the whole, methanol futures prices are still in the upward channel, but due to the lack of obvious positive stimulus, the rise is relatively mild.

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Soda ash: high shock

Last week, the domestic soda ash futures market continued its trend of high regional fluctuations

　　In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry was 77.

　　In terms of inventory, affected by high prices, the downstream enthusiasm for obtaining goods declined slightly.

　　In terms of demand, the downstream demand for heavy soda ash was stable last week, and the downstream purchases were mostly on-demand

　　In summary, supported by fundamentals such as a slight decline in soda ash production, stable downstream demand, and low factories and warehouses, soda ash futures are expected to fluctuate strongly

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Natural rubber: fluctuating and rising

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated and rose

　　In terms of supply, Southeast Asian production areas are gradually entering the peak production season, but the epidemic has caused certain disturbances in rubber production, and China's natural rubber imports have shrunk

　　In terms of inventory, on September 3, the stock of Hujiao increased by 5762 tons to 225,400 tons; the inventory of No.

　　In terms of demand, as of September 2, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 50.

　　In terms of terminals, due to factors such as the shortage of chip supply, China's automobile production and sales have fallen sharply

　　In summary, the upstream, midstream and downstream industrial chain of natural rubber is relatively short, and it is expected that the futures market will mainly fall
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　PTA: Weak shock

　　Last week, the main contract of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) was weakly adjusted
.
As of the close of September 3, TA201 fell 66 yuan throughout the week to close at 4934 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, a 1.
2-million-ton/year PTA device in East China started to shut down on June 7 for technical renovation and is currently starting to warm up and restart; a 2.
4-million-ton/year PTA device in East China is scheduled to be overhauled on September 7-16
.
The PTA processing fee is not high, and the overall supply is slightly larger than the demand
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of the week of September 3, PTA's weekly social inventory was 2,688,500 tons, an increase of 73,600 tons from the previous month
.

　　In terms of demand, on the previous trading day, the production and sales rate of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 23.
72%, that of polyester staple fiber was 194.
88%, and that of polyester chips was 239.
01%
.
The polyester market rose steadily, and the production and sales of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips rebounded; the production and sales of filaments were poor, and the market was cautious
.

　　In terms of cost, the US non-agricultural data was lower than market expectations, but the fundamentals did not undergo significant adjustments.
Crude oil may remain high and fluctuate
.
In addition, the low PTA processing fees continue to support costs
.

　　Generally speaking, the supply is relatively loose and the inventory has accumulated slightly, but the support of crude oil cost continues.
It is expected that the PTA futures market will fluctuate and adjust
.

　　(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)

　　Polyolefins: rising mainly

　　Last week, linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) futures prices rose mainly
.
Among them, the L2201 contract rose 260 yuan to close at 8375 yuan; the PP2201 contract rose 231 yuan to close at 8394 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, in August, the overall maintenance volume increased compared with July, and PP production decreased slightly from the previous month
.
The amount of overhaul is higher than that of the same period in previous years, which has weakened the pressure on the supply side
.
In foreign countries, due to the impact of the hurricane, the ethylene and propylene plants were forced to shut down, which had a greater impact on production capacity
.
Ethylene and propylene are tight, which reduces the supply of polyolefins
.

　　On the demand side, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry continued to increase to 42%
.
The operation of PP downstream companies remained stable, and the order volume was relatively lower than expected, but the overall trend of improvement remained unchanged.
Downstream companies began to replenish raw material inventories to cope with the arrival of the peak demand season
.

　　In terms of inventory, port inventory remained slightly de-stocked, and intermediate society inventory rebounded slightly, inventory pressure was not great, petrochemical company prices did not change much, and inventory remained stable
.
As of September 3, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 700,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week
.

　　In terms of profit, the profit of coal-to-olefins is still low, the profit of oil-to-olefins is severely compressed, and the cost driver is strong
.

　　Based on comprehensive analysis, it is expected that polyolefin prices will continue to run strongly under the conditions of marginal increase in demand, decrease in supply, and low profits
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)