Weekly Futures Market (8.23-27)

Methanol: Rushing higher and lowering

Last week, methanol futures showed a trend of rising and falling.

In terms of spot, after the domestic methanol spot market has risen, the weakness has been consolidated and the price center has shifted upward as a whole

In terms of operating rate, as of August 26, the overall operating load of the methanol production plant was 69.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas fluctuated within a narrow range, slightly reduced to 958,800 tons, a month-on-month drop of 17,800 tons, which was significantly lower than the level of 23.

On the downstream side, the average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.

On the whole, the resistance near the upper edge of the upward channel is relatively large, the disk surface is under pressure to fall, the rise and fall have interacted with each other, the output has increased with the increase, the demand follow-up has been relatively slow, the port inventory has stabilized at a low level, the fundamentals have not changed much, and the futures price is still in the upward channel.

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Natural rubber: a sharp drop

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fell sharply

　　On the supply side, the supply of natural rubber has decreased, and the price of raw materials has been firm

　　In terms of inventory, as of August 27, the total futures inventory continued to increase

　　Downstream, as of August 26, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies fell to 55.

　　In summary, the supply-demand relationship of natural rubber is showing a bearish trend, and it is expected that the future price of natural rubber will continue to fluctuate downward

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Polyolefins: rise and fall

　　Last week, the linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) futures markets surged and fell

　　In terms of spot, the price of LLDPE market rose first and then fell, with the mainstream price ranging from 8050 to 8450 yuan; the PP spot market was narrowed and the mainstream price was 8200 to 8,600 yuan

　　In terms of inventory, as of August 27, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week

　　On the supply side, the petrochemical plant is at a peak of overhaul recently.

　　In terms of demand, the operating rate of agricultural film continued to rebound slightly, the operating rate of film companies increased significantly, and the output increased significantly

　　In terms of costs, the supply of crude oil increased, demand fell from high levels, and oil-to-olefin profits rebounded slightly; the current basis contradiction of thermal coal contracts in recent months was more significant, prices fluctuated at high levels, and coal-to-olefins profits remained low
.

　　Based on comprehensive analysis, the recent short-term price drop is mainly due to poor demand, and the profit of coal-to-olefins remains low in the market outlook
.
The maintenance of petrochemical equipment is concentrated, and petrochemical inventories continue to go to the warehouse, and the market outlook for plastics in the medium and long term is not pessimistic
.
In the face of the downturn in the real market and the contradictions of expectations that the fundamentals are more driven, it is recommended to wait patiently for the price to stabilize and continue to place more plastic orders
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　PTA: Stop falling and oscillating

　　Last week, as of August 27, the main contract of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) stopped falling and fluctuating
.

　　In terms of supply, a 1.
5 million ton/year facility in East China was shut down in the early morning of August 23 and is scheduled to be put into use in the afternoon of August 27; a 3.
3 million ton/year facility in East China started 60%, and the second reactor was on August 24.
The material is discharged after feeding; some PTA devices restart or plan to restart, causing PTA to accumulate inventory slightly
.

　　In terms of demand, on the previous trading day, the production and sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 29.
59%, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber were 39.
52%, and the production and sales of polyester chips were 41.
51%
.
The downstream polyester production load is not high and the production and sales are not good, so it is more to maintain the just-needed replenishment
.

　　On the terminal side, with the gradual implementation of national sports and fitness-related policies, the sports leisure industry will usher in a new development cycle, and the prospects for demand for PTA raw materials will improve
.
The proportion of domestic brand search interest has increased from 45% in 2016 to 75% in 2021.
In the past two years, more than 60% of consumers prefer to consume local brands.
The Chinese public’s acceptance of domestic brands has reached a high level.
The domestic brand boom has become a long-term trend
.

　　In terms of costs, Hurricane Ida threatened US crude oil production, the interest rate policy remained loose and the US dollar was under pressure, and oil prices remained strong in the short term, which continued to support PTA costs
.

　　In general, the supply of PTA is relatively loose and the inventory is slightly accumulated, but the support of crude oil cost is relatively strong, and it is expected that PTA will fluctuate and adjust
.
(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)

　　Soda ash: callback meets support

　　Last week, the domestic soda ash futures market pulled back in response to support, and stabilized
.
As of the close on August 30, SA2201 closed up 47 yuan to 2,694 yuan
.

　　On the supply side, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 77.
58% last week, a decrease of 0.
09% from the previous week
.
The output of soda ash was 552,100 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week
.

　　In terms of inventory, soda ash inventory increased slightly, with a total inventory of 337,500 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous week
.

　　Downstream, the glass capacity utilization rate was 90.
04% last week, a decrease of 0.
4 percentage points from the previous week
.

　　On the whole, the short-term soda ash is relatively stable.
With the subsequent production of photovoltaic and float glass, there is still room for improvement in demand, and the soda ash futures prices will still be high and strong
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)