Weekly Futures Market (6.28-7.2)

Methanol: oscillates higher

Last week, methanol futures fell into a stalemate and consolidation.
After the center of gravity fell within a narrow range, it gradually stabilized the 40-day moving average support and hovered around the 2,600 yuan (ton price, the same below).
The highest reached 2,630 yuan, but it failed to break upward.
Increased 0.
15%
.

In terms of spot, the domestic methanol spot market price has not changed much, and the operation is stable for the time being
.

In terms of operating rate, as of July 1, the overall operating load of the methanol production plant was 71.
03%, a decrease of 0.
21 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 11.
37 percentage points from the same period last year
.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas continued to rebound to 902,000 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons from the previous month, which was still significantly lower than the level of 32.
57% in the same period last year.
The overall tradable supply is estimated to be around 184,000 tons
.

　　In the downstream, coal-to-olefins demand for methanol has just stabilized, the load of individual MTO plants in the coastal areas has picked up slightly and the two sets of Ningmei coal plants have returned to normal.
The operating rate of the olefin industry has rebounded to 84.
15%, an increase of 2.
31 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　From a weekly perspective, methanol futures prices are still in a volatile upward channel
.

　　(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

　　PTA: shock adjustment

　　Last week, the main contract of PTA fluctuated and adjusted.
TA109 fell 44 yuan throughout the week to close at 5108 yuan; open interest decreased by 342,000 hands to 1.
76 million hands
.

　　In terms of supply, a 650,000-ton/year PTA device in East China will be overhauled on June 25 and is scheduled to restart around July 5; a 325,000-ton/year PTA device in Central China will be shut down recently and is expected to restart in mid-July.
The specific date is to be determined
.

　　In terms of demand, the quotations of polyester in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian increased on the previous trading day, and the downstream companies were slightly resistant to the price increase, and the purchase intention was general
.

　　In terms of costs, the OPEC+ meeting continued to be postponed due to the failure of the UAE to reach an agreement.
The market is waiting for a clear result.
Crude oil prices are still high and fluctuating, which constitutes cost support for PTA
.

　　Generally speaking, the high price of crude oil continues to support polyester costs, and it is expected that PTA futures will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term
.

　　(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)

　　Polyolefins: rise and fall

　　Last week, domestic LLDPE and PP futures prices continued to rise and fall
.

　　In terms of spot, on July 1, the LLDPE and PP spot markets were dominated by rises, mostly with a rise of 50 yuan
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of July 1, the inventory level of major manufacturers was 640,000 tons, an increase of 4.
92% compared to the 30,000 tons in the previous working day
.

　　On the supply side, LLDPE and PP are expected to increase marginally as the amount of maintenance losses decreases and production increases
.

　　Downstream, China's plastic product output in May was 6.
945 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.
1%
.
Affected by factors such as temperature and power cuts, the output of plastic products in July may have declined compared to the previous month
.

　　Seasonal demand began to pick up marginally
.
The high-pressure imports announced in May fell short of expectations.
Recently, it is rumored that the high-pressure imports from June to July are still expected to decrease
.

　　On the whole, the spot price of high-pressure products has been operating steadily recently, and from the perspective of weekly inventory performance, high-pressure inventory accounts for the least proportion of major port areas, and cost-driven support, which will drive polyolefin prices to continue to rebound in the short term
.
However, due to the expected impact of LLDPE and PP production in the second and third quarters, the medium and long-term prices are still under pressure.
It is recommended that LLDPE and PP remain on the sidelines and focus on the impact of the power rationing of downstream product companies in July
.
(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Soda ash: strong shock

　　Last week, soda ash futures fluctuated and strengthened
.
As of the close on July 2, the main contract SA2109 closed up 79 yuan to 2,266 yuan, an increase of 3.
61%
.

　　In terms of spot, the soda ash market is steadily rising
.
Among them, the price of heavy soda in North China is 2250 yuan; the price of heavy soda in East China is 2200 yuan; the price of heavy soda in Central China is 2150 yuan; the price of heavy soda in South China is 2150 yuan
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was increased by 0.
83% month-on-month to 78.
99%; output increased by 5,900 tons to 560,500 tons
.
This week, Chongqing Xiangyu and Zhongyan Kunshan installations started to overhaul, which is expected to be 7-8 days; Henan Haohua Junhua installations have dropped to 30-40%
.
The supply of soda ash may be reduced
.

　　In terms of inventory, the inventory in the sample companies continued to decline, and the inventory was relatively concentrated.
The total inventory was reduced by 60,200 tons from the previous month to 493,000 tons
.

　　On the downstream side, downstream users of light soda ash mainly purchase on-demand, while downstream users of heavy soda ash receive normal replenishment under the support of orders to maintain inventory
.
Last week, glass manufacturers shipped well, and the spot price was raised twice
.

　　In summary, soda ash companies will reduce production, while consumption in the middle and lower reaches is stable.
It is expected that the market outlook for soda ash will maintain a strong and turbulent pattern
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Natural rubber: shock and weakening

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated and weakened
.
As of the close on July 2, Hujiao RU2109 closed flat to 12705 yuan; No.
20 rubber NR2109 closed up 15 yuan to 10305 yuan
.

　　In terms of supply, tapping operations of rubber trees in major production areas at home and abroad are gradually starting, the release of glue is steadily increasing, and the output is gradually increasing
.
Among them, the supply of raw materials in Yunnan is expected to increase rapidly
.
The raw material output in the Hainan production area is high, and the price difference between the glue entering the thick milk factory and the full latex factory is low, which is conducive to the increase of full latex
.

　　In terms of inventory, on July 2, the stock of Hujiao increased by 752 tons to 184,300 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber decreased by 2027 tons to 55,600 tons
.
The overall inventory level is at a low level
.

　　Downstream, the tire industry's operating rate has dropped significantly
.
On July 1, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire enterprises fell to 45.
28%, a decrease of 18.
85% from a week ago; the operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises fell to 44.
75%, a decrease of 14.
2% from a week ago
.

　　In summary, the expected increase in natural rubber supply pressure is confirmed, downstream factories have difficulty in starting short-term upgrades, and weak fundamentals have suppressed rubber prices
.
However, due to the recent price decline, the downward space has been shrinking, supporting the price of rubber.
It is expected that natural rubber futures will remain low and fluctuate
.