Weekly Futures Market (6.15-6.18)

Methanol: finishing operation

Last week, the methanol futures market rose first and then declined.
The main contract gapped and opened higher after the Dragon Boat Festival.
The price broke through the 2500 yuan (ton price, the same below), reaching a maximum of 2535 yuan
.

In terms of spot, the domestic spot market rose within a narrow range, and transactions showed a tepid trend
.

In terms of operating rate, as of June 17, the methanol industry operating rate was 71.
66%, a decrease of 2.
42 percentage points from the previous month
.

In terms of port inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas has shrunk to 829,000 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous month.
The overall tradable supply is estimated to be around 179,000 tons, and there is little pressure on short-term inventory
.

In the downstream, the load of coal (methanol) to olefins plant was 79.
46%, a decrease of 3.
17 percentage points from the previous month
.

　　On the whole, methanol supply and demand are expected to weaken, fundamental changes are limited, and the market continues to fluctuate.
The futures price is expected to stabilize at around 2450 yuan.
Radicals can try more lightly, and short-term participation is appropriate
.

　　(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

　　Soda ash: high fluctuations

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market fluctuated at a high level
.

　　On the supply side, the operating rate of the soda ash industry last week was 78.
6%, a decrease of 0.
04% from the previous week
.

　　In terms of installations, the Chongqing Xiangyu and Jiangsu Kunshan installations will be overhauled.
At the same time, the Jilantai installations in Inner Mongolia will run at reduced load, and the supply side may shrink slightly, but the overall impact on the market will not be significant
.

　　In terms of inventory, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 619,600 tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from the previous week
.

　　In terms of consumption, downstream users of light soda ash mainly purchase on-demand, and the willingness to stock up is not strong; downstream demand for heavy soda ash is stable, with normal replenishment and maintaining a certain amount of inventory
.

　　The production lines of individual glass manufacturers are hot repaired, and the glass output is extremely unstable
.

　　In summary, the supply and demand of the soda ash market is too neutral, and the futures prices may remain high and fluctuate
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　PTA: continuous shock

　　Last week, the main PTA contract continued to fluctuate
.

　　In terms of supply, a 650,000-ton/year PTA unit in East China is scheduled to shut down on June 25, and the specific restart time is yet to be determined; a 1 million-ton/year PTA unit in Southwest China will be shut down on June 18, and the restart time is to be determined
.

　　In terms of demand, last Friday, the polyester market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weak and demand was sluggish
.
Among them, polyester filament production and sales were 26.
8%, polyester staple fiber production and sales were 37.
03%, and polyester chips production and sales were 30.
2%
.
The downstream polyester production and sales are unstable, which is negative for the market mentality
.

　　In terms of cost, crude oil prices fluctuated widely, and PTA still had cost support
.

　　In general, long and short news in the market are intertwined, and it is expected that PTA futures will still fluctuate within a narrow range
.

　　(Industry Futures Ge Ziyuan)

　　Polyolefin: rebound mainly

　　Last week, the LLDPE and PP futures markets mainly rebounded
.
The contract price of LLDPE2109 increased by 120 yuan, an increase of 1.
56%; the contract price of PP2109 increased by 28 yuan, an increase of 0.
34%
.

　　In terms of inventory, as of June 18, the inventory of major manufacturers was 690,000 tons, the same as the previous week, and the inventory in the same period last year was 695,000 tons
.

　　On June 18, domestic LLDPE inventory decreased by 2.
81% compared to June 11.
Among them, LLDPE inventory of upstream manufacturers decreased by 1.
24% month-on-month, LLDPE sample port inventory decreased by 3.
13% month-on-month, and sample trading company inventory decreased by 4.
91% month-on-month
.

　　In terms of supply, last week, the proportion of LLDPE and PP plant shutdowns increased slightly, and the supply week decreased slightly.
However, the loss of later maintenance is still expected to decrease.
In addition, there are still installations in June, and the supply is relatively loose
.

　　In terms of demand, the operating rate of agricultural film companies rebounded from a low level, the operating rate of BOPP companies has increased, and BOPP companies have sufficient orders
.
Downstream demand began to slowly increase, which is bullish for commodity prices
.
Inventories in the midstream sector continued to decrease slightly, and traders actively shipped goods with good results.
Downstream companies still maintained rigid replenishment
.

　　In terms of costs, in the context of the suppression of crude oil supply and the continuous recovery of demand, the cost of oil-to-olefins drives the staged support
.

　　On the whole, the supply volume has not changed much from the previous month, and the demand has begun to improve, coupled with the support of costs, it is expected that the polyolefin futures prices will continue to rebound
.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Natural rubber: low vibration

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market fluctuated at a low level
.
As of the close on June 18, RU2019 closed up 15 yuan to 12795 yuan, an increase of 0.
12%; NR2108 closed down 35 yuan to 10495 yuan, a decrease of 0.
33%
.

　　In terms of supply, the climate in Southeast Asia and the domestic Qiongdian production area is suitable, and no serious natural disasters have occurred
.
With the gradual increase in summer temperature and the suitable climate characteristics of sunny and rainy, the supply of natural rubber will gradually increase
.

　　In terms of inventory, on June 18, the stock of Hujiao increased by 1029 tons to 182,600 tons; the inventory of No.
20 rubber increased by 81 tons to 67,000 tons, and the inventory is still at a low level
.

　　Downstream, on June 17, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 56.
92%, down 5.
39% from the previous week; the operating rate of semi-steel tire companies was 52.
75%, down 5.
91% from the previous week
.
The domestic replacement market continues to be weak and the export market is weaker from the previous month.
Tire companies have accumulated inventory, so the operating rate has dropped slightly
.

　　On the downstream side of the terminal, although the heavy-duty truck market still maintained a high level of prosperity, sales began to weaken from the previous month in May
.
In addition, due to the shortage of chips and the off-season of summer consumption, the demand for automobile consumption has weakened, which also exerts pressure on the natural rubber and tire market
.

　　In summary, supply pressure, overlap and weak consumer demand, the natural rubber futures market is expected to fluctuate at a low level
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)