Weekly Futures Market (12.27-12.31)

Methanol: Downturn

Last week, the methanol futures market was weakly adjusted, and the center of gravity fell under pressure.

In terms of spot, the market fell mainly, and the supply of low-priced goods increased

In terms of operating rate, as of the end of December 2021, the overall operating load of the methanol plant was 70.

In terms of inventory, methanol inventory in coastal areas rebounded within a narrow range, increasing to 729,500 tons, an increase of 58,500 tons from the previous month, an increase of 8.

In the downstream, most of the coal-to-olefin plants are operating smoothly, with an average operating rate of 73.

On the whole, in the seasonal off-season, methanol supply and demand are difficult to improve, and the future price trend is slightly stalemate.

(Founder mid-term Xia Congcong)

Polyolefins: a slight decline

Last week, the prices of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and polypropylene (PP) were adjusted and run

　　In terms of spot, as of the week of December 31, 2021, the price of LLDPE spot market has fluctuated in various regions, and the overall price of LLDPE has been narrowed

　　In terms of inventory, as of December 31, 2021, petrochemical inventories amounted to 580,000 tons, which was slightly removed, and petrochemical manufacturers' inventories remained at a normal level

　　In terms of demand, as of December 30, 2021, the overall operating rate of PE downstream companies has declined, the demand for agricultural film has slowed, the demand for greenhouse film has gradually ended, the follow-up of orders is limited, the demand for mulch film is slow, and the overall operating trend of the industry has weakened

　　On the whole, the operating rate of polyolefin enterprises has risen slightly, the supply side is still under pressure, and demand continues to weaken seasonally.

　　(Founder mid-term Cheng Xuefei)

　　Natural rubber: a slight upward movement

　　Last week, the natural rubber futures market rose slowly and slightly

　　In terms of supply, following Yunnan's complete shutdown in November, Hainan also shut down production in December.

　　In terms of supply in Southeast Asia, the main production areas in southern Thailand have weakened rainfall, and production is expected to increase; the Vietnamese production areas have entered the off-season for tapping from mid-to-late January 2022, and the supply of natural rubber has gradually decreased; natural rubber supplies in Indonesia and Malaysia are stable

　　In terms of inventory, as of December 31, 2021, the stock of Hujiao increased by 2,800 tons to 230,900 tons; the inventory of No.

　　Downstream, as of December 30, 2021, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tire companies was 61.

　　In summary, the natural rubber futures market has risen slightly due to supply and import transportation uncertainties triggered by climate change this winter.
However, due to tire consumer demand and the epidemic, the room for natural rubber futures prices to rise will be limited
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)

　　Soda ash: run down

　　Last week, the soda ash futures market moved downwards
.
As of the close of last Friday, SA2205 closed down 61 yuan to 2,183 yuan, a decline of 2.
72%
.

　　In terms of spot, the domestic soda ash market continued its downward trend last week, and the prices of light soda ash and heavy soda ash both fell
.

　　On the supply side, last week, the overall operating rate of the soda ash industry was 78.
99%, a drop of 1.
31 percentage points from the previous week
.

　　In terms of inventory, last week, soda ash inventory was 1.
8189 million tons, an increase of 104,200 tons from the previous month; social inventory increased by nearly 20,000 tons to 160,000 tons
.
Although the number of days of soda ash inventory in glass companies dropped by nearly 3 days, it still remained at 30.
5 days
.

　　In terms of demand, individual flat glass companies have cold repairs, and individual photovoltaic glass companies have a low operating rate.
In addition, the operating rate of some industries such as daily glass, pyrosulfurous acid, sodium sulfate, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, and water treatment is not high.
High, the demand for raw material light alkali is more on-demand
.

　　In terms of cost, last week, domestic soda ash cost pressure eased, raw salt prices for raw materials were weakened, and market prices for thermal coal and synthetic ammonia fell, which directly led to a decline in soda ash enterprise costs
.

　　On the whole, soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected that the futures prices of soda ash will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future
.

　　(China Industrial Securities Futures Shihai)