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Yesterday's fundamental changes are still relatively limited, the current macro factors affect the market situation is relatively more obvious, yesterday's dollar index rebounded again so that copper prices previously volatile higher pattern has been somewhat suppressed, but the market still has a more positive outlook for further fiscal measures in the United States, which is still more favorable
for copper prices.
On the fundamental side, the CSPT team finalized the copper concentrate processing fee floor price for the first quarter of 2021 at $53/mt and $5.
3/lb, down $5 and 0.
5 cents from the fourth quarter of 2020, and the future supply is still difficult to say loose
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China is currently the most effective country in controlling the new crown epidemic
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in 2021 is relatively high
.
In addition, the country's 14th Five-Year Plan attaches importance to the new energy sector, and will continue to support the demand for copper varieties
.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, and as far as Fed monetary policy is concerned, there are no conditions for immediately changing the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar is likely to remain weak
.
In terms of spot, on January 13, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 80 ~ 120 yuan / ton
for the contract of the month.
The transaction price of flat water copper is 58760 yuan / ton ~ 58880 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of premium copper is 58780 yuan / ton ~ 58900 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, holders hold prices, traders are afraid of heights and cautious wait-and-see, downstream consumption is weakened, and the overall trading is average
.
Markets are counting on further fiscal stimulus measures in the United States, and the global economy may recover strongly as vaccines become available, although the accumulation of social inventories in the off-season and weaker demand are expected to limit the upside
.
