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On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum 1804 contract opened at 14405 yuan / ton in the morning, dragged down by the collapse of the global stock market, the metal plunged after the opening, the low of aluminum prices touched 14355 yuan / ton, and then the bears covered the market under the Shanghai aluminum stop falling, narrow range oscillation below the daily moving average, the center of gravity slightly up, according to the good times are not long, the afternoon bears hit again, concentrated a wave of entry, Shanghai aluminum release rapid discharge continued to refresh the recent low touched 14215 yuan / ton, closed at 14225 yuan / ton
。 The continuous decline in aluminum prices is in line with the judgment that it has always been, considering the accumulation of post-holiday inventory or exceeding expectations, coupled with the further downward movement of electrolytic aluminum costs, there is still room below the dynamic safety margin, so the short-term aluminum price weakness view remains unchanged
.
Externally, dragged down by the collapse of overseas stock markets, Lun aluminum opened low at 2201.
5 US dollars / ton in the morning, after the opening aluminum price around the daily moving average weak shock, the trend is relatively light, the afternoon low once touched 2181.
5 US dollars / ton, down test 40-day line support, into the European trading session, the metal obtained technical repair, recorded different degrees of rebound, as of 17:10, Lun aluminum reported 2191 US dollars / ton, or will continue to test the 40-day line support, Pay attention to the guidance of financial market changes and the impact
of changes in surrounding varieties.
In terms of the market, the Shanghai transaction concentration was 14060-14070 yuan / ton before the afternoon, the discount for the month was 130-120 yuan / ton, the Wuxi transaction concentration was 14060-14070 yuan / ton, and the Hangzhou transaction concentration was 14090-14110 yuan / ton
.
Approaching the end of the year, the holder reduced the position of the holiday, the willingness to ship positively, although close to the 9-day deadline for the month change, the spot discount is difficult to narrow, the middleman is mainly for the downstream to receive goods, downstream enterprises to prepare goods into the end, there have been enterprises began to take a holiday, the overall transaction supply exceeds demand
.
In the late afternoon, aluminum fluctuated in the month, downward at the end of the day, East China spot traded 14050-14070 yuan / ton, and the downside quotation at the end was as low as 14000 yuan / ton, but it was difficult to trade
.
As of February 2, the previous Shanghai aluminum inventory rose to 795,000 tons, approaching the 800,000-ton integer mark, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory continued to rise
.
Near the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are nearing the end of stocking, aluminum processing enterprises have been on holiday, downstream consumption is weakening, aluminum ingot inventory continues to rise under weak demand, and short-term aluminum prices maintain a weak trend
.
Overall, the probability of systemic risk in the market is low, and after investor sentiment is repaired, it is expected that the market will stabilize and be mainly range-bound
.
